The San Diego Padres are in an interesting position.

With the team on the outside, looking in on the NL playoff picture, should they be selling or buying in the next month?

Obviously, people are now turning towards the upcoming all-star break and, most importantly, the trade deadline to fill the obvious few holes on the roster. 

But maybe that’s not the path the Padres should take this year.

What if instead of being buyers, they sell?

That might sound defeatist and horribly negative coming off a competitive season.

What the Padres shouldn’t do is a fire sale. This isn’t the time or the place for such, and it’s far too drastic. Let alone the emotional trauma for its fans associated with that term. What the Padres should consider doing is selling their upcoming free agents as soon as possible. Specifically, the Padres should make it known that players like Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, and Robert Suarez are available. Try to extract the highest price possible and build for the future, especially for next year.

What’s the justification for this?

• The Padres are getting average or below-average production at nearly every position

After a scorching beginning of the season, the Padres have cooled off tremendously. The team is getting excellent, consistent offensive production from only two spots on the field: Luis Arraez and Manny Machado. Both have been contributing what they do best (hitting for Arraez with surprisingly solid defense while Manny has been playing at an all-star level), but the rest of the team is not providing what is needed.

Left field: The Connor Joe/Jason Heyward fiasco is finally over, with neither player lasting even half a season in brown and gold. Now, to his credit, Gavin Sheets is showing improvement with the glove. However, he’s ideally suited as a DH. Not someone you want roaming the largest outfields in baseball (almost all of which are in the NL West). None of the other options attempted have demonstrated anything.

Center field: Jackson Merrill’s sophomore year has been beset with injuries and poor performance. This can happen to any player, nor is this to suggest you’d replace him, but The Kid is having a very rough year after helping to carry the team in 2024. When he’s been out, this becomes another offensive black hole for the Padres.

Right field: See centerfield; Tatis hasn’t been injured, but something’s been off with him to the point where he’s missing obvious mistakes over the plate. The power is down and while his defense is still damn good, he’s not performing like the star he is. 

Shortstop: To his credit, Xander Bogaerts has been a true professional in the midst of a rough year and remains solid defensively. He’s also showing signs of improvement at the plate. However, he’s got a long way to go to provide even a consistently average offense to the team that is giving him $25 million per year.

Second base: Cronenworth remains what he is, average at best, and expensive. He’s far from the biggest problem on the team, offensively or defensively, but he hasn’t hit above .250 in four years and is far from a difference maker.

Catcher Martin Maldonado at least provides defense, but neither he nor Elias Diaz has provided anything offensively. This duo is essentially a black hole at the plate, and Luis Campusano is not the answer here either.

Designated Hitter: If this were just Gavin Sheets, it wouldn’t be a problem. The Padres like to rotate people into this spot to give them time off their feet, but they lack any offensive threat to scare people. And this seems to be a consistent problem ever since the DH came to the NL.

As noted, the Padres might have obvious holes at left field and catcher, but it’s not like the other positions are carrying this team.

• The Bench is a disaster

Jason Heyward. Connor Joe. Yuli Gurriel. Elias Diaz. Luis Campusano. Jose Iglesias. Tyler Wade. Brandon Lockridge. Oscar Gonzalez. Bryce Johnson. 

Regardless of who the Padres have rotated in, this bench has consistently provided little to no offense. To their credit, many of them have provided good defense in key situations, but for a team that previously relied on timely hitting from players like David Peralta and Donovan Solano, this group is the polar opposite. Good teams have depth; they have players who can give their starters a much-needed break and can contribute to key situations. No one in the group has shown the ability to do that consistently.

• Their starting rotation is below average

The team and fans knew it would be a struggle with Joe Musgrove out for the season and Yu Darvish unable to begin the year. The Padres did get sign depth in Kyle Hart and Nick Pivetta to help offset the loss of Darvish and Musgrove. Things are currently problematic at best. Darvish has yet to pitch, and no one is sure when/if Michael King will pitch this year. Kyle Hart was a disaster. Nick Pivetta went from looking superhuman to average, and Dylan Cease struggled heavily out of the gate. Again, the team has good depth, and players like Randy Vasquez, Stephen Kolek, and Ryan Bergert have helped keep the team afloat with quality innings. However, they are not serious front-line starters, nor are they the core of any team’s playoff rotation. When compared to teams like the Giants and Dodgers, they are average at best. The team doesn’t have great options at El Paso either to bring fear to opposing teams, especially in the playoffs. Right now, the only hope they have of reestablishing themselves as a fearsome rotation is 39-year-old, often injured Yu Darvish and the giant question mark of Michael King.

• Their bullpen is very feast or famine, and right now it’s famine

Like everything else, the Padres’ bullpen started out at lights out, and things have come unglued. While certain arms, such as Suarez, Morejon, Matsui, and Reynolds, have looked quite good, even with hiccups, there are major issues across the board. Adam went from being a lights-out set-up man to having serious control issues. Estrada has taken a significant step backward from last year’s impressive performance. Peralta has improved, but he remains expensive and questionable. Alek Jacob looks like a flash in the pan at best. Even Suarez has begun to struggle with an inflated ERA since the start of the year. And for whatever reason, whenever one player struggles, it looks like the entire group struggles, turning from a lockdown group into a leaky one within a month. The team can, and will, look for reinforcements from El Paso and San Antonio, but as a whole, the group is far too inconsistent with way too many questions.

• Last year’s amazing run isn’t a blueprint

People look at this team and think that last year’s results still apply. It’s important to remember that the Padres, already with Cease and Arraez, only went 50-49 before the All-Star break. They were average across every facet of the game. It’s only by going 43-20 after the all-star break, an almost unheard-of accomplishment, that the Padres were able to make the playoffs. It’s not a good idea to hope that a team playing a bit above .500 will be able to rattle off a similar winning streak, especially as they’re performing worse than last year. For context, the Padres of 2023 went 39-33, with a notable surge at the end of the year, and finished 2022 with a 49-24 record.

Now, conversely, here are some points for why they should consider selling

• There are very few real sellers, with very few top-tier trade options

There are some very obvious sellers this year, and they are the teams that you expected when the year began. The Rockies, Marlins, Pirates, A’s, Angels, and White Sox will be the most likely sellers. But among all of them, few have elite trade targets. Very few of the big names that many were hoping to move (Alcantara, Robert, etc) have had bad years. As such, the market among sellers won’t be as heated as it was last year, unless someone prioritizes talent over poor performance.

There are also teams in the midst of a bad year (e.g., Diamondbacks, Orioles, Rangers, and Reds) that could part with talent, but there are two issues. First, the talent they’re looking to move is good (e.g., Cedric Mullins, Eugenio Suarez, Adolis Garcia), but not enough to put teams over the hump. Second, the moving teams all have replacements in their farm system that look far superior. As such, the movers might just decide to DFA or cut them to make room for players like Jordan Lawler, Alejandro Osuna, and Dylan Beavers. Many teams have done so in the past, brought up amazing young talent around the all-star break or trade deadline, and were catapulted into contention.

Finally, the league has far more teams in the middle (e.g., the Red Sox, Brewers, Mariners, and Cardinals) that are not far from the playoff position. They could decide just as easily to become buyers if they get on a hot streak, even if they have players who are viable trade options. With so many playoff spots available, and the three wildcard spots always such a dogfight, teams often think of buying when they’re only slightly out of the hunt. 

As such, the market is characterized by a surplus of buyers and a scarcity of sellers, let alone those with top-quality talent.

• Free agents outgoing

The Padres happen to have three players, all of whom will be leaving at the end of the year, who are among the best available. Dylan Cease, despite his slow start, has come on much stronger and looks to be one of the best free-agent arms next off-season. Robert Suarez has been a top-five closer in baseball, even with his occasional hiccups, and has an opt-out after this year. Luis Arraez carries one of the best hit tools in baseball and has become a much better defensive first baseman than last year. He is also a free agent. All three players are likely gone by the end of the year, with little to no chance of keeping them in brown and gold. Why not try and get something for them beyond a low-end draft pick? 

The team also has some excellent depth options in the bullpen, including players like Adrian Morejon and Yuki Matsui, whom teams could inquire about. Bullpen help is always highly sought after. They could even put Nick Pivetta, whose $20 million/year salary looks like a bargain now, and Wandy Peralta, with three years and $13 million left on his contract, on the market. Both could be highly sought-after pieces on numerous teams that need depth and length. 

• The financial and farm crunch

Regardless of the end result, the Padres will be in the same position they were in last off-season: financially overextended, unable to acquire players via free agency, and without immediate depth in the farm system. 

The Padres are too top-heavy in terms of salary, with an excessive number of high-dollar players and insufficient resources to acquire additional talent. As soon as Bally’s Sports collapsed, the team’s steady long-term cash flow dried up like a river in the summer heat. This means that the team is absolutely reliant on its big-dollar players to perform. Unfortunately, whether it’s through injury (Musgrove, Darvish) or lack of production (Bogaerts, Tatis), the Padres have been unable to get anything going.

More importantly, the team will be in the same situation next year. There’s no likely end to the Padres’ TV deal issues, so they can’t expect to get more than a few million dollars in revenue, and most of that will be eaten up in arbitration. The team will get roughly $ 10 million from the Hosmer contract’s conclusion, but according to Sportac, the Padres will likely start with a salary of $188 million, and almost all of that will go to seven players (Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Darvish, Musgrove, Pivetta, and Cronenworth). Even if the Padres make some cost-cutting moves, such as Suarez opting out, King declining his option, or releasing Diaz and Hart, the team will still be financially stretched.

There are exciting players within the pipeline to be sure, but none of them will be in San Diego in 2026. Leo De Vries, Ethan Salas, Boston Bateman, Kash Mayfield, Kavares Tears, and Cobb Hightower may have long-term potential, but they’re years away. Players that are close to the majors are more likely to be role players like Brandon Valenzuela, Omar Cruz, and Tirso Ornelas. They’re very unlikely to fill the multitude of holes this team has to fill. 

Remember what happened in 2023

Whether it’s a coincidence or something else, the Padres seem to be in this situation where odd-numbered years are not as good as even-numbered years. And while the current situation is not as bad as then, it doesn’t hurt to remember 2023. That year couldn’t figure it out, and as month after month passed, the team couldn’t capitalize on their star power and great pitching due to poor roster construction and subpar play.

At the time, the Padres had two of the best pitchers in baseball, Josh Hader & Blake Snell, both of whom were about to become free agents. They also had a number of excellent pitchers, including Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez, all of whom were expected to opt out and leave. That doesn’t even include Juan Soto, who had already rejected multiple extensions and whom the Yankees and others were inquiring about. The front office instead decided to push on and even bought. Whether this was due to excessive optimism or Peter Seidler’s condition, the team didn’t make the playoffs. In fact, the Padres barely made it above .500 and saw all those players leave for either nothing (Lugo, Wacha, Martinez) or late draft picks (Hader & Snell), excluding the trade of Soto.

What do you think the Padres could’ve gotten for the best pitcher and closer on the market at the time?

What could they have gotten for other effective players like Martinez and Lugo? What could they have also gotten for an extra half year of Soto?

The Padres of 2025 might not be playing as poorly as the Padres of 2023, but they are a team with numerous holes and numerous interesting trade pieces. With a few trades, the team could rapidly turn around, fill a number of key needs, and be ready for 2026 with a stronger farm and team and far greater flexibility. It’s a painful suggestion, but it might just be enough to keep the team in contention for the long haul.

Loren Casuto

A Native San Diegan, Loren has spent his entire life not only as a fan but an active participant in San Diego’s sports world. In 2006 Loren joined two other die hard Charger fans to create Bolttalk, where Loren was a co-host and regular columnist from 2006 until the Chargers left in 2017. After that he started another podcast, The Grid Podshow, from 2020-2021 with his former co-host and colleague, speaking about the local sports community and popular culture.

When he’s not giving his opinion about San Diego sports, Loren is an adjunct professor at San Diego State and an attorney.