What if the San Diego Padres never acquired Juan Soto?

What would the team look like today?

And should the Padres have any regrets, given that the talented prospects that were sent to the Washington Nationals are now starting to blossom?

In short, should A.J. Preller have pulled the trigger to acquire Soto, arguably the game’s premier hitter, for just under a season and a half (two 1/2 years of control at the time of the trade)?

How the Trade Went Down

The 2022 Washington Nationals were just three years removed from their World Series victory in 2019. But since they finished at 55-107, it must have felt even longer. Gone were stars like Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon (who was an All-Star in ’19), and Max Scherzer. In 2022, they were at a crossroads, especially when it came to Soto, their 23-year-old phenom.

Ownership wanted to build around Soto for the future, so they offered him a 13-year, $440 million extension.

But Soto turned it down.

Juan Soto has rejected a 15 year, $440M offer from Nationals, per @Ken_Rosenthal.

Washington now plans to ‘entertain’ offers to trade for the star outfielder ? @BRWalkoff pic.twitter.com/AlOI0QuotX

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) July 16, 2022

This prompted Rizzo to put him up for a trade so that they could get good value for him.

Meanwhile, the Padres were in the middle of their first serious playoff run in a decade (except for the COVID-shortened 2020 season). They had a legitimate shot at making it, and given their burgeoning minor league talent, they had the wherewithal to make a run at Soto. But since many other teams were also in the hunt, and Rizzo is a notoriously shrewd general manager, the price would be steep.

On August 2, general manager A.J. Preller pulled it off, when he acquired Soto and first baseman Josh Bell for shortstop CJ Abrams, left-handed starter MacKenzie Gore, outfielders James Wood and Robert Hassell III, right-handed pitcher Jarlin Susana, and first baseman Luke Voit (after Eric Hosmer rejected the trade due to the no-trade clause in his contract).

The Immediate Impact

Excitement surged in San Diego, and the Padres were energized; not only were Soto and Bell acquired for the pennant run, but also infielder Brandon Drury and closer Josh Hader.

Soto hit an underwhelming .236, but with a still-productive .388 on-base percentage and a 127 OPS+.

Meanwhile, the Padres beat the New York Mets in the Wild Card series and upset the Dodgers in the Division Series (the Dodgers were heavily favored, having won 111 games that year).

But the magic ended when the Phillies bested them in the National League Championship Series, four games to one.

2023

In 2023, the Padres’ payroll ballooned to over $250 million, highlighted by the signing of free agent shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Jake Cronenworth received large extensions.

This was going to be the Padres’ year…until it wasn’t.

The team was under .500 for most of the year; only a late-season push got them over .500, at 82-80, but two games behind the wild card Arizona Diamondbacks.

And after a slow April and May, Soto finished 2023 with a .275/.410/.519 slash, 35 home runs, 109 RBI, a league-leading 132 walks, and a sterling 155 OPS+. He had a 5.3 WAR and finished sixth in the N.L. MVP balloting.

But the big spending unraveled after the season ended, as it came out that the team had to borrow money to make payroll, after Bally Sports reneged on their TV deal. Then, team chairman Peter Seidler passed away; with ownership now in flux and Preller being given a tighter budget due to the Padres exceeding the luxury tax, the writing was on the wall: Juan Soto needed to be traded. On December 6, 2023, he was sent with Trent Grisham to the New York Yankees for right-handers Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhonny Brito, Randy Vasquez, and catcher Kyle Higashioka.

This brings us back to the original question: What if the Padres never acquired Juan Soto? And, given that some of the talent they gave away is now emerging with the Nationals, should they have done it?

Why The Padres Should Not Have Made the Trade

The case against the trade is clear, for at least four reasons:

First, left field is currently one of their weakest positions. But if Preller and Rizzo never pulled the trigger, guess who San Diego’s left fielder would be today?

James Wood.

Talk about this more @MLBNetwork @espn @CNN pic.twitter.com/4AFgk7RoUl

— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) August 14, 2024

After getting called up last summer, Wood, then 21, pounded nine homers and swiped 14 stolen bases in 79 games for the ‘Nats, with an impressive 122 OPS+.

This year, Wood is doing even better; as of Sunday, May 11, he is slashing .274/.374/.529 with an elite 155 OPS+.  He is currently on pace to hit 40 home runs this year.

Second, after some rough growing pains in 2023-24, Gore, now 26, looks like he has turned a corner; through nine starts, he has hurled 52.2 innings with 75 strikeouts, a respectable 3.59 ERA (3.21 FIP) and a 113 ERA+.

Third, CJ Abrams is emerging as a star shortstop; so far this year, he has an .897 OPS, and a 154 OPS+.

Fourth, the Padres only got one year of Higashioka. After Luis Campusano faltered in 2024, “Higgy” quickly took over as the primary catcher, and from June onwards, he was one of the top slugging catchers in all of baseball. But for whatever reason, the Padres did not make him a competitive offer in the offseason, so he signed with the Texas Rangers.

Now, it’s true that the Padres had no place to put Abrams, with Tatis (and then Bogaerts, Kim, and Bogaerts again) at shortstop, and Cronenworth (and then Kim, Bogaerts, and Cronenworth again) at second base. But Abrams could have easily been trade bait—in a parallel universe, maybe he would have been sent to the White Sox in a package for Dylan Cease?

Why The Padres Were Right to Make the Trade

Here’s the bottom line: If you have a chance to get a premium talent like Juan Soto during a pennant race, you go for it!

The Padres were in the middle of a pennant race in 2022 after imploding the previous season. And with Seidler very publicly stating that his goal was to bring a World Championship to San Diego, Preller was given a green light to do whatever was necessary to make it happen.

In addition, there is always going to be the lingering question: if Peter Seidler had not passed away, would the Padres have inked Soto long-term? According to Jon Heyman of The New York Post, the answer is yes.

“The owner loved Juan Soto. He was sixth in MVP, a Silver Slugger, an All-Star,” Agent Scott Boras told The Post. “Peter called about wanting to pursue him, and there were discussions about wanting to keep him. And unfortunately, it did not work out because of his health.”

Was this just a bargaining ploy by Boras? We will never know for certain. But given that Soto eventually signed a 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets, it is highly unlikely that the Padres would have signed him for that cost.

And, it’s not like the Padres are hurting today because of the Soto trade. Once again, they are in hot competition for another pennant run, in large part because they have King, arguably their best starter since the start of ’24, and Dylan Cease. Both King and Cease came to San Diego through Soto, and without them, there is no way the Padres would be this good.

Not to mention that Randy Vasquez has filled in as a decent, albeit unspectacular, number four starter.

My Final Answer

The Juan Soto trade is not, as some have suggested, one of the worst trades ever; after all, the Padres got value from him while he played for them, and Preller was able to extract value for him from the Yankees.

So, in no way is that trade in the same category as Steve Carlton for Rick Wise, or Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi. Not even close.

But with hindsight being 20/20, was it the right deal to make?

My answer is yes, but with two caveats:

One, there is always going to be the “what if” when it comes to James Wood; having him in left, Jackson Merrill in center, and Fernando Tatis Jr in right would have been an elite outfield.

James Wood hits his 11th homer of the year to cut into the Braves lead! pic.twitter.com/1QlBmMmcrk

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 13, 2025

Two, if you’re going to trade Soto, the least the Padres could have done would be to re-sign Higashioka, given that their current catching core is subpar.

But just like it is with life, so it is with baseball: it isn’t always going to be neat and tidy.

What do you think?

Did the Padres make the right decision to trade for Juan Soto?

Greg P. Hoadley

Greg has been a Padre fan for over 40 years. He lives in Ankeny, Iowa.