From untouchable to unsettled: A closer’s summer slide

At the start of 2025, Robert Suárez looked every bit like an elite closer, racking up saves, flashing upper-90s velocity, and stabilizing a reshuffled Padres bullpen.

But over the past two months, a growing list of ninth-inning meltdowns has chipped away at his dominance and raised serious questions about his current form. It began back on May 12, when the Angels tagged Suárez for five runs on five hits—including a three-run homer by Taylor Ward—in just one-third of an inning. Then came June 14 in Arizona, where he entered with a four-run cushion and allowed five runs on five hits, including a game-tying triple, before being pulled for Adrian Morejon.

Just over two weeks later, on June 29 in Cincinnati, he couldn’t protect a one-run lead, surrendering four straight hits in a 31-pitch collapse that ended with a walk-off single. Most recently, on July 2 in Philadelphia, Suárez gave up three more hits and a run before escaping with a shaky save. Once automatic in the ninth, his recent outings have been marked by rising pitch counts, loud contact, and late-inning chaos.

Once 15-for-15 in save chances to start the season, Suárez’s command and whiff rate have plummeted during the summer stretch. Hitters are no longer overmatched—they’re grinding out at-bats, spoiling velocity, and waiting for mistakes. Using data from Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and Team Rankings, this article explores whether Suárez’s struggles are a temporary slump or a red flag signaling deeper issues. With the trade deadline looming at the end of this month and the Padres’ playoff hopes hanging in the balance, the answer may define how San Diego proceeds in the second half.

Building around the bullpen core

The Padres’ bullpen has taken shape around a reliable late-inning core, anchored by closer Suárez and setup arms Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, and Adrián Morejon. Together, they’ve blended swing-and-miss stuff with solid command and run prevention. Suárez has tallied 24 saves with a 4.04 ERA, while Adam (1.69 ERA, 50 Ks) and Morejon (1.89 ERA, 0.79 WHIP) have emerged as dominant options.

In middle relief, David Morgan (2.08 ERA) and Sean Reynolds (3.97 ERA) have been serviceable in small doses, though Reynolds’ .178 BABIP suggests regression is likely. Left-handers Wandy Peralta (3.58 ERA) and Yuki Matsui (4.91 ERA) have been shakier, often putting extra traffic on the bases. Overall, the bullpen features a formidable high-leverage group, but depth and situational consistency remain ongoing concerns.

Through July 2, Robert Suárez leads all of Major League Baseball with 24 saves, tied with former Padre and current Astro Josh Hader atop the leaderboard. Another former Padre and current Dodger, Tanner Scott, is tied for second in the National League with 18 saves.. However, a deeper look at his 2025 performance reveals signs of decline: a 4.04 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 3.1 K/BB, down across the board from his 2024 line and career averages.

A disturbing trend since June began

Most concerning is the trend since June 14, when he’s allowed 10 earned runs on 15 hits and 4 walks over just 5.1 innings, with a paltry five strikeouts and two walk-off losses on the road. Suárez’s early-season brilliance was undeniable, as he posted a 0.51 ERA and converted all 15 save opportunities over his first 18 appearances, firmly establishing himself as one of baseball’s most dominant closers. But since then, his performance has taken a noticeable turn, marked by rising pitch counts, increased hard contact, and late-inning volatility.

It’s not just bad luck—It’s the opponents too

Part of that downturn may be contextual. Several of Suárez’s worst outings have come against teams that excel late in games. The Dodgers (40 ninth-inning runs), Angels (36), and Diamondbacks (45) are all top-eight teams in ninth-inning runs scored, having done much of the damage (Source: TeamRankings.com, as of July 1). These are not fluke meltdowns against bottom-tier lineups, but rather pressure-packed moments against clubs built for high-leverage production. Even so, the consistency and command that defined Suárez’s early-season run have wavered at a time when the Padres need him most.

Statcast paints a clearer picture

Statcast data suggests this isn’t just a rough stretch. Suárez’s fastball still averages 98.3 mph—ranking in the 96th percentile for velocity—but the results haven’t followed. His whiff rate has dropped from the 40th percentile in 2024 to just the 25th percentile in 2025, while his expected batting average has climbed to .259. Hitters are doing far more damage when they connect: barrel rate has jumped, hard-hit rate now sits in just the 20th percentile, and his average exit velocity allowed is among the worst in the league (5th percentile).

One noticeable change in 2025 is his pitch mix. Suárez has reduced his four-seam fastball usage from 71% to 59%, trimmed his sinker usage from 16% to 14%, and significantly increased his changeup usage from 13% to 26%. The shift hasn’t paid off. His changeup has been less deceptive, and the reduced reliance on the sinker has led to fewer groundballs—his groundball rate has plummeted to the 11th percentile. Heat maps show more pitches leaking into the heart of the zone, particularly when behind in counts, which has allowed hitters to time him up more frequently. While his movement profiles are still within MLB norms, the combination of reduced deception, increased predictability, and command lapses has led to a sharp decline in results.

Workload and usage patterns raise red flags

Since May 1, Suárez still leads the Padres with 16 wins in games he’s pitched (16–7 record), compared to the team’s overall 27–28 mark in that span. But the eye test and usage patterns suggest fatigue may be a factor. He’s struggled most during periods of high-frequency use, including back-to-back days or outings with short rest. The most glaring examples—June 14 in Arizona and June 29 in Cincinnati—both ended in walk-off losses, with elevated pitch counts and diminished command. These weren’t random lapses; they followed heavy workloads and came on the road, where he’s had the most trouble closing games.

Meanwhile, other high-leverage arms around the league, and even within San Diego’s own bullpen, have caught up or passed Suárez in performance and consistency. Jason Adam (1.69 ERA, 50 K in 42.2 IP) is third on the Padres’ relievers in fWAR (1.0), limiting both walks and hard contact while ranking among the league leaders in inherited runners stranded. Adrián Morejon (second to Suarez in fWAR with 1.2), though used in a hybrid role, has also delivered elite results with a 1.89 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9. Both have routinely handled high-leverage spots with more efficiency and swing-and-miss ability than Suárez since mid-May.

Is the league catching up?

Across Major League Baseball, several closers have posted stronger run prevention and strikeout metrics in recent weeks. Hader owns a 1.82 ERA and 13.3 K/9, doing so with a superior FIP (~2.20) and a contact suppression profile. Carlos Estévez (Angels) has trimmed his ERA below 2.50 and ranks in the top 10 among relievers in strikeout rate. Aroldis Chapman, revitalized in Pittsburgh, has posted a 2.05 ERA and 36.5% K rate, with a top-5 whiff rate among qualified relievers.

Suárez’s 24 saves remain a testament to his early dominance and high-leverage usage, but his overall value has slipped. Per Fangraphs and through July 1,  Suárez ranks just 5th among qualified relievers in WAR (1.3), trailing non-closers like Randy Rodríguez (1.6), Cade Smith (1.5), and Bryan Abreu (1.4), as well as fellow high-leverage arms like Aroldis Chapman and Adrian Morejon. His K/9 (9.35) and BB/9 (3.41) are solid but not elite, and while his velocity (98.5 mph) remains near the top of the league, his xERA (3.21) and FIP (3.52) suggest his results have been more good than dominant.

Regressing by the numbers

His percentile rankings back that up: a 21.7% strikeout rate (74th percentile) is respectable, but his whiff rate (25th percentile) and groundball rate (11th percentile) place him well below the league’s most overpowering closers. He’s still the anchor of San Diego’s bullpen by role and reputation, but his overall effectiveness has clearly regressed. In terms of value, consistency, and underlying metrics, Suárez still resides in the upper tier of relievers, but he is starting to slip a bit, at least  beyond the save column and in recent weeks.

Is this just a slump—or a shift in value?

So, where does that leave the Padres? Suárez’s early dominance, consistent velocity, and solid season-long FIP (4.12) suggest he still has the tools to rebound. However, his declining strikeout numbers, rising contact quality, and increasing command issues suggest more than just random variance. Whether it’s creeping fatigue, subtle mechanical flaws, or simply league-wide adjustments to his pitch mix, the warning signs are real.

Contract leverage and trade deadline calculus

While Suárez’s role as closer remains intact for now, the Padres may soon face a pivotal decision—not just on bullpen usage, but on his future with the team. Suárez is in the third year of a five-year, $46 million contract that includes a player opt-out after the 2025 season. He’s earning $10 million in base salary this year with a $9.2 million luxury tax hit. If he declines to opt out, he’s owed another $16 million over the 2026 and 2027 seasons. For a front office working within financial constraints, Suárez’s combination of cost, age (34), and recent volatility makes him a potential trade candidate.

A defining decision ahead

Despite the recent bumps, he remains one of the more attractive relievers on the market, boasting elite velocity, playoff experience, and a league-leading 24 saves. A contender with a need for a proven late-inning arm may be willing to overlook his midseason struggles, especially if they believe a mechanical tweak or reduced workload could return him to form. For the Padres, moving him now could bring back MLB-ready talent and free up payroll flexibility, especially if the opt-out uncertainty creates added leverage heading into July.

The question is no longer whether Suárez can return to form, but whether the Padres can afford to wait. The answer, whether in the form of August dominance or another late-game collapse, may define San Diego’s bullpen identity and trade deadline posture. Which version of Robert Suárez will show up? The Padres’ postseason hopes may hinge on it.

J.J. Rodriguez

J.J. Rodriguez is a passionate sports writer making his debut with East Village Times. Born and raised in Southwest Florida, he is a father of four and an eight-year U.S. Marine Corps veteran who has lived in Southern California since 1996. A devoted fan of the San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Florida Gators, J.J. brings a lifetime of sports enthusiasm to his writing. He’s currently pursuing a degree in elementary education and enjoys life as an empty-nester with his wife of 19 years, Lisa.