With two weeks standing between the regular season and the postseason in the MLB, the Padres are closing in on a wildcard spot. However, uncertainty surrounding the starting pitching group could threaten San Diego’s chances of making a deep run.

We’re midway through September, and the San Diego Padres are nearing a playoff berth, which would be their first time making the postseason in back-to-back years since 2005 and 2006.

The Padres are comfortably in line for the 5th seed in the bracket, where they would play the wild card series on the road against the Cubs, barring any crazy shakeups in the standings. San Diego’s closest opportunity to improve their seed would be catching the Dodgers in the NL West race, as they currently trail by three games. However, as the magic number to the postseason decreases, concerns about starting pitching have been rising rapidly.

The Padres have, far and away, the best bullpen in the MLB. The unit comfortably tops the MLB in ERA, as well as leading the way in WHIP and AVG. They sent three pitchers to the All-Star Game and acquired Mason Miller in the middle of the season. However , the starting staff has been a completely different story.

Padres starters rank 18th in ERA, and while they’re still middle-of-the-pack, they’ve traded away members of the group. Michael King has not been himself since returning from injury. Dylan Cease still hasn’t made any progress in rebounding from a tough first half. JP Sears is in the midst of the worst statistical season in his 8-year career. Yu Darvish is closing in on 40 years old, and it’s evident in his career lows in velocity and spin rate. Randy Vasquez rocks a sub-four ERA, but has an average start length of 4.88 innings and a suspect left-on-base percentage. “Trust” is not a word that applies to the Padres’ starting pitchers, especially at this point in the season.

The specific concerns regarding each arm

Michael King has allowed 12 runs in 10 innings since returning from both his shoulder and knee issues. His even 2.00 WHIP through his three starts back illustrates the struggles and frustration he’s having on the mound. On Tuesday in Queens, the Mets nearly averaged an 105 MPH exit velocity against King’s fastballs, across 17 swings. A significant reason why is that he couldn’t get deep into counts to utilize his weapons, the changeup and sweeper. Mets hitters pinned their ears back and crushed the early-count heaters. Being able to control the game with his two-seamer should be at the forefront of his game plan for this weekend.

Dylan Cease remains the bottom-10 among qualified starters in ERA. Although he’s given the Padres another full season of finishing near the top in strikeouts, the right-hander is seriously lacking production. His 3.2 WAR values him as a fringe top-20 pitcher this season, which is encouraging. However, all of that logic is thrown out of the window when playoff time rolls around. Cease was made aware of this last year, being ineffective in two starts against the Dodgers.

Dylan Cease was the only pitcher to strike out 200+ batters each year from 2021-24.

He just struck out his 200th batter of 2025 ? https://t.co/cT7pvdrBlv pic.twitter.com/uvj1P8OETF

— MLB (@MLB) September 14, 2025

Yu Darvish, as mentioned earlier, appears to be drifting into a lower tier in terms of what he can still provide. The good news is that he’s been able to get a ton of games under his belt since returning from injury in July. He’s very much back in the swing of things, but then comes the bad news: he hasn’t been making a ton of progress. Darvish has surrendered three or more runs in his last four starts. He’s not as deceptive these days, and as a result, he’s been punished for it. His 12 home runs allowed match his total from 2024, in more than 20 fewer innings. His advanced metrics are the lowest they’ve been in his illustrious, 13-year career.

JP Sears joined the Padres at the trade deadline with the expectation that he’d be a fifth starter. So far, Sears has served as more of a third/fourth starter. He’s posting a 6.16 ERA in four starts with the club, with a minor league stint mixed in. Sears was never elite, and doesn’t possess a ton of upside with an underwhelming arsenal. His best pitch, the sweeper, has lost shape from years prior, which is visibly holding him back. He only brings positive value against teams that struggle with the fastball, and in October, that matchup is far from guaranteed.

My analysis of JP Sears’ first start as a Padre

Final line: 5 IP, 10 H, BB, 0 R, 4 K, 94 P

Sears allowed 10 H, but limited hard contact (87.3 EV)

He threw his fastball at a 49% clip, and it played well up in the zone with 20″ iVB

His sweeper got hit hard, and got only 1 whiff… https://t.co/KMpnZeVxRK pic.twitter.com/v341CTajg1

— High Leverage Baseball (@HighLevBaseball) August 5, 2025

Nick Pivetta is arguably the only reliable arm in the rotation. He’s putting together a beautiful campaign, pitching to a 2.81 ERA over 176 innings of work. His strikeouts are many, his walks are few, and his ability to induce fly balls is up there with the best. However, there’s even a concern with the staff’s current ace. Pivetta has been far more effective at home than he has been on the road. Although his 3.55 road ERA isn’t very concerning, drop-offs in K%, BB%, and a HR/9 that nearly doubles, Pivetta could also be a worry in October. San Diego will predictably head to Chicago for an away playoff series, and if the wind is blowing outwards, Pivetta could find himself in trouble.

The upsides of each pitcher

While there’s plenty of concern about how the unit is performing, it’s also important that we take a step back. Sometimes, the eye test can tell us more than just statistical trends. Look into the starting pitching room. Last year’s co-aces are back in the building. A middle-of-the-rotation pitcher has become a consistent staff ace this season. A seasoned veteran who’s been excellent in two postseasons with the Padres already will make starts. A tricky lefty can now move to the bullpen, where a more reasonable role could help bridge gaps.

Michael King is still Michael King. Regardless of how he’s locating, he still throws pitches that move 20″ in differing directions. He’ll get to ramp up against the White Sox and then Diamondbacks and be fresh for a Postseason start. King owned the wild card round last season, tossing a seven-inning gem with twelve punchouts against the Braves. He surrendered a grand slam in his following start but escaped with the win, making him 2-0 in Postseason play. With solid showings in his last two outings, there’s no reason to think that he won’t be able to repeat his success in October.

MICHAEL KING
10 STRIKEOUTS#POSTSEASON DOMINATION ? pic.twitter.com/w8B1yNizvE

— MLB (@MLB) October 2, 2024

Dylan Cease has been this close all season and has shown at times that he can be effective when everything falls into place. He avoided injury trouble yet again and is maintaining some of the best whiff and chase rates in the MLB. Earlier this year, he went seven innings with eleven strikeouts while not allowing a run in a crucial tilt with the Dodgers. Nothing about his improvements in velocity and whiff rate, as well as his 3.49 expected ERA, says that he couldn’t have a quality start when it matters the most.

Yu Darvish performed well in the 2020, 2022, and 2024 playoffs with the Padres. He has a 2.58 ERA with San Diego in October across 45.1 innings of work. Put simply, he’s “been there and done that,” far more so than any other pitcher on the Padres’ roster. Although he showed signs of decline in the 2025 regular season, his 2024 performance was also a step back during the regular season. Regardless, he still managed two quality starts against the Dodgers, allowing one run over seven innings and two over six and two-thirds. He’s aging, but the Postseason numbers don’t lie. He found another level in the past, and he certainly can once more.

Yu Darvish gets through 7 innings in a #postseason start for the 3rd time in his career! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/tuUbeRGy36

— MLB (@MLB) October 7, 2024

JP Sears could really benefit from being moved into a bullpen role if he winds up on the Postseason roster. The Padres could effectively use him out of the bullpen to cover length, in the case that a starter’s pitch count is running high. Being the only lefty of the starting group, he’d provide a tricky switch, especially if opponents only see the starter once. This role was operated well by Sean Manaea in the 2022 postseason, and Sears more than fits the archetype. With a very low vertical approach angle on his fastball, Mike Shildt could play the petty matchups game with Sears.

Conclusion

Overall, the Padres’ rotation is in a state of concern. There’s a lack of both efficiency and effectiveness, which is not only cutting into the score column but also the workload of the Padres’ top-notch relievers. However, with a playoff spot likely, it’s time for the pitching staff to set its sights on October. With a strong close to the season, there’s plenty of reason to believe in the group. However, with negative signs pointing in all sorts of directions, an unfortunate implosion shouldn’t come as a surprise to anybody. Only time will tell with this confusing, yet talented group of hurlers.

Willy Warren

A 17-year-old San Diego native, Willy Warren is a baseball fan at heart who created High Leverage Baseball, a public baseball media account covering around-the-league statistical analysis and breakdowns on X. Willy is set to attend the Cronkite School of Journalism in the fall of 2026 at Arizona State University, where he’ll pursue a major in sports journalism.