All-Star temperature check for the Padres
Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
With the All-Star Game just over a month away, let’s check in on where the Padres stand and who has the best chance to make it to Atlanta.
It’s like clockwork. Once the calendar hits June (and for San Diegans, the “gloom” rolls in off the coast), the MLB All-Star ballots are released for the first time, and the debates begin. The All-Star Game is in Atlanta on July 15.
Voting has opened with the initial round of fan voting closing on June 26.
Who deserves to be an All-Star? Let’s take a look at the top candidates for the Padres and assign them a temperature, with the hottest being the best chance at making the NL team.
Last year, the team boasted five All-Star selections.
Is Machado quietly having his best season as a Padre? That sounds weird, given the straight-up power outage he has to start the season (3 HR in his first 48 games). But consider this: his .318 batting average for 2025 would be the best of his career, be it with the Padres, Dodgers, or Orioles.
His current 146 OPS+ ranks just below one full season in his career, 2022, when he finished runner-up for NL MVP.
Yet, being an All-Star is usually how well you do against your peers at your position. Among NL third basemen, Machado ranks first in batting average, OPS, wRC+, and WAR.
It doesn’t get much clearer than that.
All-Star temperature: surface-of-the-sun hot
If we had done this assessment after April, Tatis and Machado would have been at the polar opposite temperatures from where they are now. Tatis was making an early MVP case. Now? He’s in the middle of the worst slump of his career.
Over the last 24 games, Tatis is batting .174 with a meager .541 OPS. He has just one home run in the previous two weeks. His batting average sat at .345. Now it has taken a nosedive to .259. He looks like a shell of himself, at the plate and just in his overall demeanor.
At this rate, Tatis will whiff on making the All-Star team. That is a massive disappointment, given that he was in the MVP conversation after the first month of the year. He is down to 10th among NL outfielders in wRC+ and 12th in OPS. That’s a far cry from him being near the top of the leaderboards in virtually every category.
All-Star temperature: plummeting
Since the start of 2024, only Ryan Helsley has more saves than Suarez’s 57. He currently leads all MLB with 21 saves. That is with a stellar 1.78 ERA and 230 ERA+. Leading the entire sport in saves is usually a good sign that you’re headed to the Midsummer Classic.
All-Star temperature: as hot as Atlanta in July
Much like Tatis, if you would’ve asked us about Merrill’s All-Star chances in April, we would’ve scoffed at even the suggestion that he might not make it. A prolonged stay on the injured list and a slump in May, which carried over into June, has him more on the bubble. He is 12th among NL outfielders in fWAR and eighth in wRC+ among those with at least 150 plate appearances. Before landing on the injured list, he owned a 1.090 OPS, which is MVP-level. Since his return in early May, his OPS stands at .743.
Both he and Tatis can get back on the right side of things with a strong finish to June. However, for now, it remains tenuous.
All-Star temperature: A room temperature drink
If Sheets doesn’t make the All-Star team, it won’t be entirely his fault. The NL DH spot is as crowded as any on the ballot. Names like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Seiya Suzuki, and Marcell Ozuna (who will get a hometown bump with the festivities being in Atlanta) all stand in Sheets’ way. Still, Sheets deserves at least time to state his case to the jury. His 11 homers are second on the team. His 115 wRC+ is seventh among NL DH hitters. He is a very above-average designated hitter in the National League. Not to mention, he is having a career renaissance akin to that of Jurickson Profar last year in a similar spot. But, trying to crack through the DH ranks right now is like a golfer in the early 2000s trying to win tournaments with a guy named Tiger Woods hanging around.
All-Star temperature: warm but not hot enough to boil
If you want to call Arraez a one-trick pony, fine. Up until recently, that one trick, being making contact at an elite level, was making up for any other deficiencies in his game. Unfortunately, that is not the case right now. The lefty slap hitter is mired in a slump. And when a player like Arraez is in a slump, it looks really bad on the stat sheet. He is batting just .231 over his last 13 games and an underwhelming .265 in his last 25.
For some, a .265 average in a month is acceptable. For Arraez, that is rendering him replacement-level. He is a career .319 hitter and is coming off of three straight batting titles and three straight All-Star selections. At .278 for the season so far, he needs to get hot quickly if either of those streaks are to continue in 2025.
All-Star temperature: a well-working refrigerator
Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.