Could Padres buy-low on Brewers starter Aaron Civale?

The short URL of the present article is: https://eastvillagetimes.com/f8fi
Spread the love
Credit: USA Today Sports

San Diego is destined to make a move for pitching depth, and with other teams around the league facing tough decisions with their rosters, San Diego could capitalize on another contender’s surplus. 

It is no secret that the Padres and Brewers are familiar with one another, especially after the famous (or infamous) Josh Hader trade. Both teams are contending for postseason spots and are in search of roster upgrades. One such area of need for San Diego is their lack of pitching depth, and the Brewers have someone who could help the Padres sooner rather than later. 

It was reported early on June 12 that Brewers right-hander Aaron Civale had requested a trade out of Milwaukee after he was being assigned to the bullpen to make way for uber-prospect Jacob Misiorowski.

While unusual for an MLB player, it makes sense. Civale is an upcoming free agent, and pitching out of the bullpen will likely lower his market value. While Civale is not typically considered an ace-caliber starter, he could still be a solid middle-to-back-end presence for a contending team, a role he excelled in for the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians earlier in his career. In his MLB career, Civale has posted a 4.06 ERA in 658.1 innings over 122 career starts, fanning 21.8% of opposing batters while walking just 6.3%.

This season, the results have been somewhat up-and-down for the right-hander. Civale opened the season as Milwaukee’s third starter, but allowed five runs in three innings in his first start before going on the injured list due to a hamstring strain. Civale missed just over seven weeks due to the injury, but upon returning to the Brewers’ roster, he has pitched increasingly better. Over his last four starts, Civale has tossed 19 innings to the tune of a 3.32 ERA (3.92 FIP), striking out 21.25% of batters while walking 7.5%.

Civale isn’t an overpowering arm when it comes to velocity, as his four-seamer has averaged 92.2 mph this season. Despite his velocity being in the 17th percentile of qualified MLB pitchers, Civale complements his heater with a deep arsenal, led by a cutter and curveball. Civale also uses a slider, sweeper, and splitter, but those offerings have combined for an 11% usage rate.

His cutter was his best offering in 2024, but the pitch has taken a step back in 2025. Based on run value, his cutter’s value has nosedived from a +10 to a -3. Despite this, all of his offspeed and breaking pitches have performed better than they did in 2024. Strategically speaking, there are some tweaks that the Padres’ staff can work on with Civale to get the most out of his performance down the stretch. 

Now, do the Padres need another starting pitcher? Well, it’s complicated. The Padres have been without Michael King since May 25 due to what was reported as shoulder inflammation, but according to King himself, his injury appears to be a pinched nerve in his shoulder.

I'd like this amount to  

While the issue is not a structural issue, it casts an uncertain timeline over his recovery. The team still has Dylan Cease and Nick Pivetta headlining the rotation, with a trio of young arms behind them. Randy Vasquez continues to post a strong 3.57 ERA, but it comes with a 5.36 FIP and 13.9% strikeout rate compared to an 11.9% walk rate. Behind him, Stephen Kolek has pitched even stronger, posting a 3.00 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 56.8% groundball rate, and a 136 ERA+. Rounding out San Diego’s rotation is rookie Ryan Bergert, who has made two starts this season at the big league level after posting a 3.75 ERA in nine Triple-A starts, striking out 37 in 36 innings. The Padres’ rotation has, as a whole, been middle-of-the-pack in fWAR, ranking 19th in innings pitched, 13th in ERA, and 16th in FIP this season. Padres starters are 10th in strikeout percentage, but rank as low as 24th in walk percentage. 

Bringing in an arm like Aaron Civale also opens up the possibility of running a six-man rotation for the Padres. While the Padres’ bullpen ranks 14th in innings pitched, the team’s high-leverage arms have seen a lot of use early on in the season. Jason Adam currently leads the Majors in games pitched (34), with Jeremiah Estrada right behind him at 33. Adding in another starter could allow for a six-man rotation, but also for one of the Padres’ more inexperienced starters to work as a piggyback arm behind Civale. 

Now, is this a lot of maneuvering on a roster for a back-end starter? Probably, yes. There is also the option to acquire Civale to later trade him at the deadline, which is possible but seldom happens in MLB. The cost for the Padres to acquire Civale would likely be lower than most models would interpret his value, since Milwaukee has minimal leverage in trade discussions. Does Milwaukee have the option to keep Civale? Yes, but with the emergence of Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, along with the eventual returns of Nestor Cortes and Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee is chock-full of rotation depth. 

The Padres are always on the hunt for more pitching depth to avoid a repeat of 2021, and with a taxed bullpen and an ace out for the near-term future, the team could look to make a buy-low addition to stem the tide until Michael King’s return.

Share and Enjoy !

Shares

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *