Why the Padres should buy low on Sandy Alcantara

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The San Diego Padres need pitching, and Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins makes sense. 

With the trade deadline just over a month away, the San Diego Padres face a familiar question: Are they ready to go all in?

If this team wants to make a serious postseason push, the answer has to start with bolstering the rotation.

Right now, the Padres are riding a rotation of Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Stephen Kolek, Randy Vasquez, and Ryan Bergert—serviceable arms, yes, but not a group that strikes fear into October lineups. They’ve kept the team competitive, but this is not a World Series-caliber rotation.

Help could be on the way with Yu Darvish targeting a return soon and Michael King aiming to pitch again this season. But both come with question marks. Counting on injured starters to return as frontline contributors is a gamble the Padres can’t afford.

Enter Sandy Alcantara.

The 2022 NL Cy Young winner is in the midst of a rough season with the Marlins, but this presents an ideal buy-low opportunity for A.J. Preller and the front office. Alcantara comes with a track record of dominance, and while his numbers this season don’t leap off the page, there are signs the stuff is still intact—he just needs a reboot.

On the surface, Alcantara looks far removed from his Cy Young form. In 15 starts, he’s posted a 6.69 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and only 59 strikeouts in 74 innings. His expected ERA (xERA) of 4.71 suggests some poor luck, but it’s still far from elite. That said, the raw tools that once made him one of the best pitchers in baseball are still present.

The problem? Command, not stuff. Alcantara’s trademark trio—a sinker with heavy arm-side run, a rising four-seamer, and a devastating changeup—simply haven’t worked in harmony this season. Fastballs are leaking over the plate, and without consistent execution, even his elite changeup has suffered, carrying a -3 Run Value.

Courtesy: Baseball Savant
Courtesy: Baseball Savant

 

But this isn’t a post-Tommy John reclamation story in the mold of Noah Syndergaard or Matt Harvey.

The velocity is still there—his sinker and four-seamer average over 97 mph, and his changeup still fades at 90 mph. The movement profile remains elite: the sinker boasts 7.7 inches of induced vertical break, while the changeup shows 4.5 inches, nearly identical to his 2022 Cy Young metrics.

What he needs is someone to help him find the zone again. And there may be no better coach for that challenge than Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla, who brings a strong track record of helping pitchers regain command and confidence.

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There’s already reason to believe Alcantara is turning a corner. In his last four starts, he’s posted a 2.74 ERA with just five walks—three of those outings were quality starts, something the Padres desperately need as they rank just 19th in MLB in that category.

Then there’s the contract. Alcantara is signed to an extremely team-friendly deal—five years, $56 million through 2026, with a club option for 2027. This isn’t a rental. This is a long-term asset at a controllable cost. A.J. Preller would gain future rotation depth and financial flexibility.

If Alcantara gets right, imagine a postseason rotation of Cease, King, Darvish, Alcantara, and Pivetta. That’s a group that can go toe-to-toe with anyone, including the Dodgers.

The Padres don’t just need an arm—they need upside. Sandy Alcantara is exactly that.

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