Padres’ fast start to season: The good and the bad

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Credit: MLB.com

The San Diego Padres have completed 25 games in the 2026 season, under first-year manager Craig Stammen. They have gone 17-8 through eight series. After dropping the first two series against the Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants, San Diego has gone 15-4.

SD has won six straight series after completing another impressive comeback, capped off by another go-ahead home run by Gavin Sheets on Thursday afternoon against Colorado. The first 25 games have come with struggles from big money guys, as well as some major contributions from smaller names.

Stammen has surely shown his style of managing so far this season. The former reliever had used 18 differently constructed lineups throughout the first 18 games. In spring training, Stammen was vocal about being flexible with his lineup and that has been seen in the batting order but as well as on the field. Fernando Tatis Jr. has made three starts so far at second base, making the temporary move to the infield to give Jake Cronenworth and Xander Bogaerts days off up the middle.

What’s Gone Wrong

Hitting coach Steven Souza and his offense ranks 24th in MLB with a team OPS of .682, a mark they wish to move up on. The big three of Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado have not had the start of the season they would have wished for. These three bats are earning a combined $825,000,000 throughout the durations of their current contracts and are all struggling to find their footing at the plate.

Tatis Jr., with 25 home runs in 2025, is yet to leave the yard at the approximate 15% mark of the 2026 season. Although the poor stats, the two-time Silver Slugger Award winner has a 66.7% hard hit rate, which are batted balls 95+ mph or higher. With his 66.7% hard hit rate, comes an average launch angle of just 4.7°. Poor launch is limiting his ability to hit gappers and balls over the wall, an area the team struggles with.

Machado only has two home runs through 24 games played in 2026. The Miami native’s statline going into the Mexico City Series appears as .195/.327/.293, resulting in an OPS of .620, which is seen as poor. Although Machado’s not getting in done in with the bat, he has been walking at a great rate. His current 17.7% BB rate in 2026 is 7.5% higher than his previous high of 10.2% in 2020.

Merrill has struggled as a hitter much of the young season. Merrill has been chasing pitches outside of the zone 39.3% of the time, continuing a trend from 2025 when he struggled with a 37.8% chase rate. To this point and batting third most of the time, Merrill has collected just a .647 OPS. Although his struggles, the centerfielder’s bat speed has seen an up tick in 2026 is, being at least 1.0 mph quicker than 2024 and 2025.

Starting second baseman Jake Cronenworth is also having a slow start with his bat. The Saint Clair local is struggling against non fastballs, whiffing 50% of the time against breaking pitches and hitting just .100 vs. offspeed pitches.

Before Nick Pivetta’s flexor strain in his elbow, the starting pitching depth was thin. It got even thinner after he got placed on the injured list. Pivetta being out “weeks and maybe months” freed up a rotation for Matt Waldron, an arm who missed out on the Opening Day rotation after having a non-baseball related injury in spring training. Waldron has allowed 12 earned runs on 16 hits, in Waldron’s two starts back in the bigs. The inability for Waldron to work deep into games has put more work on the bullpen which has had their hands full with Walker Buehler and Germán Márquez in the rotation as well.

Outside of a few nice starts vs. Colorado and Seattle out of Buehler, he has struggled to give innings and miss barrels, giving himself an ERA of 5.75. Márquez has seen himself in a similar boat as Buehler, constantly working around base runners and getting hit hard. Márquez’s opponents’ xSLG against him is at .522, in the bottom 9% of MLB. Griffin Canning is expected to join the Major League team within the coming weeks, along with recently signed Lucas Giolito. With Joe Musgrove’s status uncertain, fresh arms are looking to make a larger impact.

The Good

Luis Campusano is one of the greater stories for San Diego’s early success in 2026. To this point, Campusano has out-hit Fermin 12 to 7. The 27 year-old catcher, who failed to record a hit in 2025, has looked rejuvenated at the dish in the new year, hitting .333/.385/.667, providing a nice thump towards the bottom of the order. Campy has 12 hits, including 6 of them for doubles, and two of the them for homers.

The bullpen has been of course been a major contributor to many victories that the team has had. Mason Miller has been undeniably the best relief pitcher in the early season. Miller is striking out 71.1% of batters he faces, resulting with a league leading nine saves, and a .41 WHIP.

22 year-old Bradgley Rodriguez has stepped up in an immense way after the bullpen lost Robert Suarez over the offseason. Rodriguez has shined vs. lefties, using his arm-side changeup to his advantage. He uses the changeup 53% of the time when facing lefties, leading to his .136 against them. In 12 1/3 total innings, Rodriguez has racked up 12 strikeouts, while posting a 0.73 ERA.

A smaller name, Ron Marinaccio has done a great job for San Diego and this pitching staff. He’s been asked to pitch high leverage innings, as well as eat some innings in games where the pitching staff needs it. In 14 1/3 innings, Marinaccio has a 1.19 WHIP, limiting opponents’ hard-hit rate to just 28.1%, putting himself in the 91st percentile in that category.

Ramón Laureano, Xander Bogaerts and Miguel Andújar have been the most consistent Padres’ hitters to this point. Laureano has been setting the table in the leadoff role, hitting to a .804 OPS, launching four homers and hitting 17 runners in. With the glove, Laureano has 2 OAA, putting himself in the 91st percentile of fielders. With Bogaerts, getting paid roughly $25 million a year, this is the version that the Padres need. The X-Man is batting .289/.366/.444, with four long balls. Impressive so far, the shortstop is only striking out 10.4% of his at bats, and having an xBA of .302, putting himself in the 90th percentile or better in both of those categories.

Andújar, coming over in free agency, is a specialist to mash off of lefties. In the young season, he’s actually done more damage off righties. Andújar, has an overall OPS of .789, and against righties it’s up to .816. The former Yankee prospect, has been designated hitter most of his starts, but has played the field with a game at third base, and a game at first base.

Much More Season Ahead

With many of the stars either injured or not performing up to standards, a 17-8 record is great for this ball club. Although a +15 run differential doesn’t seem great being nine games above .500, the team has shown immense fight throughout this extremely young season. In the homestand that included Colorado and Seattle, the Padres had walk off wins in three of those games, regardless of a slow start for the bats.

The starting rotation is expecting some reinforcements shortly in the form of Canning, Giolito and hopefully Pivetta as well. The loaded bullpen is still missing key pieces such as Yuki Matsui, who is yet to pitch in 2026 for the Padres, and Jeremiah Estrada who was placed on the 15-day injured list with right elbow tendonitis after seeing a drop in velocity and weight over the offseason.

The best version of this team is yet to come with superstars yet to get hot and key arms still sidelined by injury.

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