The 2025-26 San Diego State season has been a disaster in terms of expectations.

The team was predicted to win the regular-season conference title, and while that can still happen, the Aztecs are not in the driver’s seat. Utah State is one game ahead of both SDSU and New Mexico with two games remaining. The Aggies and Lobos meet in Logan for the final game of the season, while SDSU will travel to Boise State on Tuesday night and then host UNLV for senior night. The Aztecs need help in order to accomplish their early-season goal.

A 3-way tie for the lead at 15-5 is still possible, and then the analytics determine who takes the crown. Finishing second or third does not matter, so the Aztecs will be rooting for the Lobos in that final game against the Aggies.

•SDSU 1-seed: SDSU win out (Boise St, UNLV) + UNLV beats Utah St + Colorado St beats New Mexico + New Mexico beats Utah St

•Utah St 1-seed: win out

•New Mexico 1-seed: win out https://t.co/cuLacroGLT

— Aztec Analytics (@AztecAnalytics) March 1, 2026

Even after the loss at New Mexico, Joe Lunardi keeps the Aztecs close. They are considered in the First Four Out alongside Ohio State, California, and VCU.

If the Aztecs do not win the conference regular season, that does not mean they can’t make it to the NCAA Tournament. This team has no choice but to make it to the conference tournament championship on March 14. A win would guarantee an entrance, but a loss in the title game would require some much-needed help from other teams in other conferences.

San Diego State is 44th in the NET rankings. UCLA, Santa Clara, New Mexico, and Texas A&M are just ahead of SDSU. Behind the Aztecs are TCU, VCU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Baylor (who beat SDSU earlier this season). The Aztecs need those programs to perform poorly in their respective conferences. The good news is that four of the five teams right behind SDSU are in a very tough Big 12 conference. They all can’t play well, especially with six ranked teams ahead of them.

Ohio State, which is on the bubble alongside SDSU and 37th in NET, upset No. 8 Purdue at home on Sunday. That win may give the Buckeyes an at-large bid. This upcoming week, SDSU must see some bubble teams lose.

San Diego State blew it at The Pit

The Aztecs had a real shot to beat the Lobos on Saturday afternoon. They started the game playing well on the road, but the Lobos closed out the half very strongly. SDSU led by 11 at one point, but then ended the half leading by only one point. This same thing happened against Utah State on the road at the end of January. If the Aztecs improved their second-half play in both of those games, SDSU would be running away with the conference.

San Diego State did all it could to keep the score within reach until the final minute. Sean Newman Jr. shockingly earned late minutes, and he and Miles Byrd drilled a late three-pointer to stay close. Down three with under 20 seconds left, BJ Davis launched a contested three that did not come close to hitting the rim. That was one of the worst decisions of the season, and it cost the Aztecs a chance to either tie the game or bring it to within one point.

Brian Dutcher must come up with a better way to close the game, as one more failure to execute could end the season.

Chris Spiering

Chris is a graduate of the University of San Diego. He is the former Sports Editor for the USDVista newspaper. Chris has covered the San Diego Loyal, and now covers San Diego State Men’s Basketball. He also contributes regularly about the Padres. Chris is an athlete and is a huge fan of San Diego sports.