With Matt Waldron’s horrible appearance on Tuesday, is it the end of the knuckleball ERA in San Diego?

Right-handed starting pitcher Matt Waldron has had quite the up-and-down tenure during his time with the Padres.

Waldron, the 29-year-old knuckleballer from Omaha, once looked like he had a promising future in the Padres’ rotation. Now, he may be out of the league.

The pitcher came over from the then-Cleveland Indians in the “Sunshine” Mike Clevinger trade of 2020. As of 2026, Waldron is the second most tenured pitcher in San Diego’s organization, second only to Adrián Morejón. Waldron spent years working through San Diego’s affiliate teams before making his eventual major league debut in 2023 against the Nationals. The crowd was notably jittery, and the announcers doubled down on the excitement, as a knuckleballer would throw in the majors for the first time in years.

Throughout 2023, the former Nebraska Cornhusker struggled, starting just eight games and spending the majority of the season in the minors.

By 2024, however, he was a staple in the Padres’ starting rotation. Waldron started hot in 2024, posting a sub-3.60 ERA in 11 of his first 14 starts. The second-year starter credited his resurgence to pitching coach Ruben Niebla. As Waldron later explained, Niebla helped him remember who he really was: a knuckleballer armed with a rare pitch that belonged to him alone. There was power to that sentiment. It would all come crashing down, however, mid-summer, and in his last 11 starts, Waldron posted an ERA below 4.50 just two times. Not only did his numbers look bad on paper, but he also looked lost on the mound, as well, and it was clear he had lost his confidence.

After an injury-plagued 2025 season and a 2026 campaign that began with another setback, the right-hander finally made his season debut in mid-April.

In five starts, Waldron struggled with significant control issues, failing to pitch more than five innings in any outing. In those starts, he posted a cumulative 9.28 ERA and visibly struggled to command his low-velocity fastball. In all likelihood, Waldron only reemerged into the Padres starting rotation due to injuries to the top of the rotation starting pitchers in Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, and Griffin Canning.
In light of these recent struggles and the recent signing of former Boston Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito, one question looms large for Waldron: What’s next?

Given that he is out of minor league options, it has been heavily speculated that he will be designated for assignment, opening up the opportunity for other teams to claim him off waivers. The only other realistic candidate would be Walker Buehler. Buehler, however, has shown more flashes of dominance this season and is widely viewed as the option with the higher upside. The reality is that Waldron hasn’t been consistently effective since early summer 2024, nearly two full years ago.

Additionally, while it in a literal sense remains an option, it is extremely unlikely the Padres keep Waldron on as a bullpen arm. San Diego’s already crowded bullpen is entirely devoid of weak links, and if the Friars wanted an inconsistent starter mixed in their bullpen, they could have just kept Kyle Hart. Poor performance from Waldron makes any potential trade unlikely, although you never know with the always eccentric A.J. Preller.
Ultimately, with Lucas Giolito contractually required to be added to the Padres’ 40-man roster within mere days, a decision is imminent.

Giolito, who allowed just one earned run in six innings in his latest outing with San Antonio, is all but guaranteed to be handed the ball sometime during the Padres upcoming series with the Mariners, and in all likelihood, it will be in the place of Matt Waldron.

Looking forward, regardless of the Padres’ rotation will be composed of several question marks. Topped off with Aces Michael King and Randy Vasquez, the rest of the rotation is quite dubious. Rounded out by Griffin Canning, Walker Buehler, and Lucas Giolito, the Padres’ summer might well be defined by their performances, with Java Joe and Pivetta unlikely to return anytime soon. Moreover, veteran Germán Márquez has struggled in his limited appearances and does not look like he will be providing San Diego with any meaningful answers this year.

If this marks the end for Matt Waldron with the Padres, the fans will thank him for an exciting couple of months in the summer of 2024. For a while, Waldron looked like he could be the league’s next great knuckleballer and provided a string of wonderful performances not to be forgotten. Forward-looking, the Friar Faithful should be hopeful that a Ruben Niebla-led Lucas Giolito can return to his 2025 form and guide the Padres through the hot summer months of 2026.

Billy Seidlitz

Billy has spent a majority of his life following San Diego sports and worked in San Diego for many years. Now residing in Newport Beach he recently obtained his Juris Doctorate degree from Chapman University and now works as an Associate Personal Injury Attorney. Billy enjoys supporting the Padres and SDFC from Orange County and making the drive down for big games. He is passionate about analytics and writing about sports.