Aztecs Basketball Preview: SDSU, Air Force meet for one final battle
Credit: Don De Mars/EVT Sports
San Diego State vs. Air Force
Clune Arena – Air Force Academy
Saturday, February 7 – 5:00 pm
TV: FS1
Brian Dutcher’s Aztecs will make one final trip to Colorado Springs as part of the Mountain West.
The last time the San Diego State Aztecs played in Clune Arena, they avoided an embarrassing loss to the Falcons. Former Aztec Wayne McKinney III went coast-to-coast with under five seconds left and hit a buzzer-beating layup to win the game.
Wayne. McKinney. III.
A walk-off winner for San Diego State! WOW!
— John Fanta (@John_Fanta) January 23, 2025
The Aztecs aim to avoid being put in that situation again. This is a contest that the Aztecs should dominate. What comes after this battle is a gauntlet of games that will determine whether this team wins the MWC regular-season title.
SDSU is coming off an unimpressive win over the Wyoming Cowboys. The team left many points off the board and only won by nine points, not improving the metrics at all. Reese Dixon-Waters played very well offensively, ending with 23 points. It would have been nice to see the team beat Wyoming by more than nine at home, but missing 13 free throws and going only 3-18 from beyond the arc is not a recipe for success; it doesn’t matter who you play. RDW and the gritty SDSU defense carried the team, as Wyoming shot 32% from the floor and 28% from deep.
SDSU remains in the mid-40s in NET rankings at 44, right behind Wisconsin and in front of New Mexico, which dropped after the loss to Utah State. On KenPom, San Diego State’s defense, in league games, ranks No. 1 in overall defensive efficiency, turnover percentage, steal percentage, and block percentage, and No. 2 in two-point field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage.
Battle No. 1
The Aztecs hosted Air Force in the middle of December for the first conference game of the season. SDSU controlled the game from start to finish, but the Falcons played a great first half, scoring 30 points and holding the Aztecs to just 33. However, Dutcher’s team stormed out of the gates in the second half, scoring 48 points and not missing many shots at all. The Scarlet & Black won by 23 to improve to 6-3 on the season.
BJ Davis had one of his better games of the season against the Falcons, scoring 19 points, going 4-6 from deep, and ending with six assists. The frontcourt dominated in this game as well. Miles Heide, Magoon Gwath, and Pharaoh Compton combined to score 35 points on 15-19 shooting. Compton did what he has done many times this season, finished without a missed shot, and attacked the paint.
Where are the Falcons now?
As expected, Air Force is winless in the conference at 0-11 and is 3-19 overall. The only three wins on the season came against Alabama State, IU Indy, and SIUE, and they were all home games. They have not won a game since November 23rd, and their closest loss was a 5-point loss to Navy. They have been blown out of the arena more often than not.
Caleb Walker leads the Falcons in scoring at 11.9 points per game on 73% shooting. Kam Sanders is right behind him at 11.4, while Lucas Hobin is at 11.2 per game. Walker has not played since January 13, as he has missed the last five games due to an injury. It’s unclear if he will be available for Saturday night or not. If he does not play, the Falcons will be down a massive part of the identity of the team.
The Falcons will be led by three freshmen, Sanders, Hobin, and Riley Dering, to try to create the offense against SDSU. Dering has only played in five games this season because of the injury to Walker. He has stepped up each game, coming off a 15-point outing against Grand Canyon. Dering is shooting 72.2% from the floor and averages 6.4 points per game in five contests. He’s played at least 20 minutes in the last two games.
Battle No. 2
The Aztecs will likely be without Elzie Harrington and Magoon Gwath once again. It makes more sense to keep them out at least one more game with a bye week following. The next contest will be against Nevada the following Saturday. I believe Gwath will be out, but Harrington has a chance to play. We won’t know until Saturday evening.
San Diego State needs to dominate this game. The defensive aggression is not going anywhere, and it’s expected that they will keep the Falcons to below 60 points. This will be by far the easiest road game remaining, as they will travel to Colorado State, New Mexico, and Boise State before the season ends. They must handle business with a big win on the road to put the metrics back on their side.
The Aztecs need to focus on the free-throw line. They cannot afford to see another 10+ misses cause a closer game than anticipated. The team has talented free-throw shooters on the roster: Dixon-Waters, Davis, Sean Newman Jr, and Harrington, all above 80%. However, Compton, Heide, and Tae Simmons are shooting below 68% and account for the 4th-6th most attempts on the team. Byrd also attempts the second most on the team and shoots below 80%. If those players are going to attack the basket at the rate they do, they must be able to convert from the line with a better percentage.
Mountain West games are tight. Every point matters. Let’s see if the Aztecs can improve from the line and take care of business with a momentum-building win before hosting a great Nevada team.
Chris is a graduate of the University of San Diego. He is the former Sports Editor for the USDVista newspaper. Chris has covered the San Diego Loyal, and now covers San Diego State Men’s Basketball. He also contributes regularly about the Padres. Chris is an athlete and is a huge fan of San Diego sports.