SDSU head coach Sean Lewis’ first year on The Mesa has not gone as hoped. 

How the Aztecs got to 3-6 is as disappointing as the record. Hired to revitalize the offense, Lewis’ group has looked predictable and powerless, not innovative and potent. Last week against New Mexico, SDSU scored only 16 points against statistically one of the worst defenses in America. 

It was the third time this season the team was held under 20 points. Overall, the Aztecs are 110th in scoring offense, averaging 21.8 points per game. When only FBS opponents are factored in, that number drops to 18.9. 

Conventional wisdom suggests the kind of facelift SDSU is working through will take time. Any equitable evaluation of Lewis’ job performance cannot be made until the players in this season’s recruiting class are upperclassmen. 

However, UNLV head coach Barry Odom has turned convention on its head. 1984 and 1985 were the two best seasons in Rebel history. They went a combined 16-7-1 during that span. Odom would top that mark with a win Saturday. His record in Sin City is 16-7.

Patience is not a virtue in US culture. The microwave mentality that grips the American consciousness will compare the start of Odom and Lewis’ tenures. Fair or not, UNLV’s head coach set the standard for success.

Below are ten storylines to follow.

10. What Happens in Vegas, Stays in Vegas 

Saturday will be the final opportunity in the regular season for SDSU to prove it is a quality team in 2024. The Aztecs are in the position many of its Mountain West opponents have been in over the years. They can be spoilers to the Rebels’ conference title aspirations. 

UNLV is one game in the loss column behind Boise State and Colorado State for inclusion in the title game. If the Aztecs leave Vegas with a win over the heavily favored Rebels, UNLV’s championship chances would be on life support.

Expectations are high on The Mesa after reaching bowl eligibility in 13 out of 14 seasons. SDSU’s three wins have come against teams with a combined 8-21 record. The Aztecs’ opponents the last two games of the season are 4-14. 

Considering the strength of the opponents, even a five-win season might fail to move the needle. To meet the standard set by his predecessors, Lewis needs a win over the Rebels.

9. Faith Over Feeling

Lewis explained the importance of adding transfers like Marquez Cooper and  Ja’Shaun Poke to the program this offseason. He said that most of the Aztecs were preparing for the season based on faith in the coaching staff. Cooper and Poke injected confidence throughout the locker room because they had achieved success in Lewis’ system.

With most of the year already passed, the players have their experience to draw from.  After only three wins in nine tries, confidence is likely low. Overcoming that feeling and competing with the necessary belief will be a storyline to follow. 

Last week against New Mexico, there were signs of the team’s faltering faith. Both sides of the ball came out lethargic. Late in the game, the Lobos imposed their will on the Aztecs. On the other hand, the defense fought back after giving up 14 quick points to hold UNM scoreless for most of the contest. The offense clawed back to take a brief 16-14 lead.  

Belief is important for any organization. The UNM loss dampened it in the Aztecs externally. The players and coaches have praised the internal culture they have built together all year. That foundation must shine through on Saturday. 

8. Recruits Are Watching

Yesterday evening, Class of 2025 EDGE Jaden Williams flipped his commitment from SDSU to Boise State. Williams initially chose the Aztecs over the Broncos in June. Based on the 2024 season, the programs’ trajectories appear headed in opposite directions. A good showing against UNLV would help with that perception. 

Class of 2026 offensive lineman Malik White will be in attendance on Saturday. This will be his second trip to Las Vegas this year. He also watched UNLV’s narrow loss to Boise State. White has also visited San Diego State twice. White’s recruitment takes center stage with his junior season in the rearview mirror. He holds offers from the Rebels and the Aztecs.

SDSU won the offseason and built momentum to attract top athletes, but it is slipping away. The end of the year will determine the program’s narrative. 

Are the Aztecs in the midst of a rebuild? With a young roster that seasoned in 2024, should expectations be high for 2025? Beginning Saturday, that story will be written and recruits are watching. 

7. Bowl Game Eligibility

At his weekly press conference on Monday, Lewis mentioned that fewer people might want to talk with him around town because of the team’s performance this year. The dark clouds that formed over the team after its loss to New Mexico could clear up instantly with an upset over the Rebels. It would put SDSU where most predicted it would be after its loss to Central Michigan.

Motivation has not been an issue for the Aztecs this year. They have played hard, but their execution and skill have been lacking. After losses at the beginning of the year, hope for a conference title kept the competitive fires burning. With those dreams snuffed out, will the prospect of reaching bowl eligibility be enough for SDSU to keep fighting?

The scene is set for a redemption story. Most expect UNLV to dominate and end the Aztecs’ bowl aspirations. Should SDSU find a way to beat a team receiving votes in the national polls, the fan base and the country will see the team in a new light. 

6. Hawai’i Hangover

Former SDSU head coach Rocky Long once said the hardest part about playing at Hawai’i is how it impacts the team the week after taking on the Rainbow Warriors. Recent examples support Long’s idea. 

Over the past two seasons, not including UNLV’s trip last Saturday, 12 visiting teams have competed at the Clarence T. C. Ching Athletics Complex. Six were non-conference affairs. Knowing the challenges Long described, four of those squads scheduled a bye following their trip to the islands. 

Of the six Mountain West games in Honolulu over the past two years, one was last season’s final game, and a pair had byes after their UH matchup.  The remaining three were forced to compete the next week and lost each game. 

Delaware State is the only Hawai’i opponent over the past two years to win a contest the week after it played the Rainbow Warriors on the road. They defeated Sacred Heart, one of two FCS Independents, 17-15. It was their only win so far this season. 

The high point of SDSU’s 2023 season was its 41-34 win over Hawai’i when its offense appeared to turn the corner. Its lowest point was seven days later when it lost to Nevada 6-0. 

The Hawai’i hangover is real. UNLV’s mental and physical toughness will be tested. Can the Aztecs turn what was a disadvantage last year into a positive this season?

5. Game Plan Improvement

SDSU likely needs to buck a season-long trend to find success on Saturday. The Aztecs have been outscored 76-35 in the opening quarter. The 41-point disparity is by far the most of any quarter. They have also been outgained 1,003 yards to 682 in the opening 15 minutes, the highest margin of any quarter. 

Despite starting with the ball six times this season, the offense has only scored one first-quarter touchdown. These opening-action drives have netted just 29 total yards. They have as many total first downs as three and outs. SDSU has not earned more than one first down on any of the possessions. 

To the Red and Black’s credit, they have responded after starting slow. SDSU has a +17-point differential in the second. It is the only quarter in which the Aztecs are ahead in the category. 

An area of improvement to watch for as UNLV is coming off a long road trip is the game plan SDSU starts with, especially the scripted plays on the team’s opening drive. UNLV is 5-0 on the season when scoring first. 

4. Rebels Due for Turnovers

UNLV’s offense is third in the nation in turnovers.  On the year, they have only lost five. SDSU has given the ball up just seven times and ranks 12th. The Aztecs and Rebels have had more trouble in recent weeks securing. 

Four of Danny O’Neil’s five interceptions have come in the past four contests. Two of UNLV QB Hajj-Malik Williams’ picks have come in the last three games. The Rebels have fumbled six times but only lost one. They put the ball on the turf twice in the last three games. None have been lost, but they might be due for their first multiple-turnover game this season. 

Unsurprisingly, the offenses have found it more challenging to protect the ball when playing better competition. This reality would favor UNLV. The Rebels rank tied for 20th in the nation with 20 turnovers created. SDSU is 94th with ten.  

3. Getting Punts Away

Punter Tyler Pastula’s performance in 2024 is among the high points of the season. He ranks in the top 20 nationally in a host of categories. Most notable among them is his 45.69 punting average, which is 13th in the country. 

Pastula’s production has also significantly improved over last season at Albany, where he averaged 41.8 yards per punt. For perspective, his numbers in 2023 would rank 53rd in the FBS in 2024.  

UNLV presents the Aztecs with a problem no other school can. Wide receiver Ricky White III has blocked four punts this season. That is a school record and more than any other FBS team in 2024. 

White is an impressive athlete. He earned second-team All-American honors last year from College Football Network after amassing 88 receptions, 1,483 yards, and eight touchdowns in 2023. This year, White has approximated last season’s offensive success even as the Rebels have moved to a run-first offense while also impacting games on special teams.  

2. Stopping the Run

Questions about SDSU’s run defense have existed since the Spring game. Through nine contests, the Aztecs have not proven adept at stopping a ground attack. They rank 105th nationally, giving up 181.8 yards per game on the ground. 

The Rebels excel at a read/option attack, which the Aztecs have struggled to stop all year. UNLV is 4-0 when rushing for 200 yards, and their expected success in this area on Saturday is the main reason for the exaggerated spread. 

The Rebels are a run-first team. Last year, they ran 124 more times than they passed. This season, they have 204 more rushing attempts than throws. The Aztecs have been very balanced. Overall, they have 33 more rushing attempts than passes. In college, sacks count as rushing attempts. Change the 29 sacks given up to passing attempts, and SDSU has been slightly tilted to the passing game. 

Against New Mexico, the Aztecs gave up 300 yards on the ground in only 35 attempts. Much of that came in the first quarter when the Lobos scheme created long touchdown runs and in the fourth when the Lobos imposed their will and ran out the clock. In between, SDSU was better. The defense will need a complete game performance on Saturday. 

The other weakness UNLV will try to exploit is the play-action pass. SDSU has struggled to account for receivers, especially in jumbo formations. The Rebels excel at forcing teams to sell out to stop the run and building off that for big plays.  

1. Building a Quarterback Room

As a Mountain West Conference team, the way UNLV has built its quarterback room should be studied by SDSU’s staff. Odom inherited Jayden Maiava, Cameron Friel, and Doug Brumfield from the previous staff when he arrived in Sin City. At the end of 2023, Brumfield medically retired, and Maiava transferred to USC. 

Odom brought in two experienced FCS signal callers, seniors Matthew Sluka and Hajj-Malik Williams, to compete with Friel. Sluka threw for nearly 6,000 yards in four seasons at Holy Cross. Williams is Campbell University’s all-time leading passer with 8,236 yards. UNLV also signed freshman Gael Ochoa to grow behind the veterans. 

Sluka won the competition to start the year but abruptly left the team. Williams stepped in, and the Rebels continued playing at a high level. 

Lewis inherited four sophomores from the previous staff. Instead of adding upperclassmen to the mix, he brought in two more underclassmen. True freshman Danny O’Neil won the job and has had an uneven 2024. Without an experienced QB on the roster, replacing O’Neil would bring as many questions as answers. 

Saturday presents an excellent opportunity for O’Neil to shine and show why he deserves the faith Lewis has shown him this season. UNLV ranks 127th in the nation, giving up 271.3 yards per game through the air. They have been susceptible against deep passes, which has been O’Neil’s main strength this year.

Paul Garrison

My earliest sport’s memory involve tailgating at the Murph, running down the circular exit ramps, and seeing the Padres, Chargers and Aztecs play. As a second generation Aztec, I am passionate about all things SDSU. Other interests include raising my four children, being a great husband and teaching high school.