The Aztecs’ season could depend on this Brian Dutcher decision
San Diego State Men's Basketball vs, Nevada. Credit: Don De Mars/EVT Sports
There is nothing like the bizarre nature of Mountain West basketball.
Within the last few years, the preseason media poll has predicted a select few teams that have had a real shot of winning the conference. Over these past few seasons, once conference play starts, more teams swim to the surface with the ability to win against the best on any given occasion.
This is what makes the Mountain West so special.
There have been a good number of “upset” wins this season, starting with Colorado State’s win over the Aztecs after losing by 23 in the first matchup. The Rams have also beaten Grand Canyon on the road. Wyoming recently beat GCU on the road, and Nevada just defeated top-seeded Utah State on Saturday night. UNLV has also beaten Utah State and swept Boise State. Furthermore, Boise State has swept New Mexico and beaten Nevada. You just don’t know what you are going to see from this conference.
The teams in the Mountain West deserve more credit. The conference does not get the national attention it deserves until March, outside of San Diego State and UNLV participating in the Playera Era Festival in November, as well as other early-season tournaments.
Why is this important? It’s important because Brian Dutcher is aware of how good the conference is. He speaks highly of every team before and after every game, and credits the importance of winning road games in this conference, knowing it does not come easily.
“That’s what the Mountain West is like,” Dutcher said Monday. “We have to play better, but we also have to know that this is a very competitive league, and if you’re not ready to play your best every night, you’re susceptible to being beat.”
Brian Dutcher has flourished in the MWC since he took over for Steve Fisher. However, the 2025-2026 season has not been kind to him. Many obstacles are being thrown at his and other members of the program’s direction. The Aztecs must overcome these obstacles, or they won’t finish the season at the point at which they worked so hard to earn.
“We have to feel the urgency of the moment, knowing that we’re a game away from being in March,” Miles Byrd said Monday. “March basketball is the most important basketball that you can play. We have to win these next three. We have to work on playing the best basketball possible. We have three games, maybe two games, to get an opportunity in the conference tournament as well to get our names into the field of play. I think it starts with today’s practice. We don’t want to get too far ahead. We have to work on our basics and get back to playing the great basketball that we were playing.”
The depth of the roster was supposed to be the strong suit of this team. As it is turning out, the depth is hurting this team’s momentum. Most teams in the conference play 9-10 players, while Dutcher has extended his bench to 11 for every game this season when all are healthy.
(Aztec Analytics), who is a must-follow on social media for all Aztecs fans, did a deep dive on the rotations from Dutcher this season. Injuries to Magoon Gwath (eight missed games), Elzie Harrington (six missed games), Tae Simmons (one missed game), and Reese Dixon-Waters (season opener) have led to the different lineups and rotations.
I just did a DEEP dive on the rotation #’s and outcomes:
•11-man rotation: 6-4 record (includes wins vs Lamar/AFA/SJSU/FSU/WYO), FOUR games w/ player logging 6 or fewer min and 15x SCORELESS player
•10-man rotation: 8-3 record, three games w/ player logging 6 or fewer min and…
— Aztec Analytics (@AztecAnalytics) February 23, 2026
These numbers tell a big story. When you rotate 11 players and force minutes to some, then some players have a harder time getting into a rhythm or finding enough momentum to make the impact that they are capable of making.
“This is where the depth hurts us to a degree,” Brian Dutcher has said in the past. “You might think you’re playing good and you might run into a night where you play six or seven minutes, and then you’re frustrated by that.”
Dutcher has cemented a nine-man rotation in the past, and he now has a serious decision to make on whether he wants to do the same for the final four regular-season games and into Las Vegas for the conference tournament.
Brian Dutcher Has a Serious Decision to Make – What Must Happen?
11 players play 13.0 or more minutes per game. Dutcher must shorten those numbers for some players. The issue, however, is that Gwath remains a question mark based on availability. There is no doubt he should be a starter, but Dutcher has been very hesitant about starting him. If he misses any more time, then Dutcher won’t have to worry about this decision as much. Though a fully healthy squad must see some changes to the rotation.
It’s Time to Favor the Freshman
There is one player who clearly deserves more minutes, and that is Tae Simmons. The freshman should be inserted into the starting lineup if Dutcher does not feel comfortable starting Gwath at the four. Simmons and Miles Heide would give SDSU a much more physical lineup to begin the game.
Against CSU, Dutcher put in Simmons right away to begin the second half. Simmons would play 19 minutes in the game.
Jeremiah Oden’s minutes must go down. He has been the starter in place of Gwath because of his experience. The experience shouldn’t matter as much at this point in the season when the freshman is playing better minutes. Let’s take a look at their side-by-side comparisons.
Oden: 14.8 minutes – 5.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 43.4% shooting, 30.2% from three-point territory.
Simmons: 13.0 minutes – 5.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.4 steals, 65.3% shooting, 33.3% from deep.
Simmons is more productive on the floor and excels in the paint on both ends of the court. Oden is a better shooter (technically), but it has not resulted in the production that the Aztecs need right now. Oden is taking away offensive attempts early in the game that Dixon-Waters, Miles Byrd, BJ Davis, and, when healthy, Gwath should be taking.
The senior scored five points early in the first half against Colorado State, which is hard to discredit him for. However, hindsight is always 20/20, and there were some critical offensive players for SDSU who never got into a rhythm. All of this adds up in the end. Oden won’t be able to contribute much outside of a few points playing 5-12 minutes anyway, so there is no need to force his minutes.
Dutcher must consider shortening Oden’s minutes and playing him only when needed.
BJ Back to the Bench
BJ Davis is a better scorer off the bench. With the way Taj DeGourville or Sean Newman Jr. have played lately, one of those two should be considered to start if Dutcher isn’t comfortable starting Harrington again. DeGourville began the season as the starting point guard, and Newman Jr. is averaging 2.5 assists, 0.5 steals, and shoots 92.3% from the free-throw line — he will continue to earn minutes.
This allows Davis to go back into the role that he excelled in all season. With Davis on the bench to begin the game, this also allows Byrd and RDW to get into an early-game flow offensively. Those two are the best players on the team, and they will be the ones who lead the Aztecs to glory when it is all said and done. This team will not succeed if Byrd and RDW do not have at least 8+ points each at halftime. They must be on their A-game for the 30+ minutes they are on the court.
New-Improved Lineup
- Taj DeGourville — Elzie Harrington, Sean Newman Jr, BJ Davis
- Miles Byrd — BJ Davis, Sean Newman Jr, Taj DeGourville
- Reese Dixon-Waters — Miles Byrd, Taj DeGourville
- Tae Simmons — Magoon Gwath, Miles Byrd, Dixon-Waters
- Miles Heide — Pharaoh Compton, Magoon Gwath
Jeremiah Oden, Cam Lawin, Raymar Gonzales, and Thokbor Majak do not get any minutes unless there is a blowout.
Dixon-Waters and Byrd have occupied the 3-spot for a majority of the season, if not all of it. The rotations don’t need to stray away from what they have done in the past. The two other guard sports will see rotations between DeGourville, Davis, Harrington, and Newman Jr when one of Byrd or Dixon-Waters is resting.
Harrington is more than capable of returning to the starting lineup. Similar to Gwath, Brian Dutcher may be hesitant to start him.
“It was good having Elzie back,” Dutcher said Monday. “I know he was probably frustrated. He played for 18 minutes, and it was probably the first game in his life in which he didn’t score a point. He’s getting his timing back. It’s good to have Elzie back, and we’ll see how he practices the next two days, and hopefully he’ll continue to get better and stronger and feel like his game timing is back.”
These changes could seriously benefit the flow and the pace of the team during the final stretch. Winning the regular season title is still in reach with a win against Utah State on Wednesday night.
This team is more than capable of proving everyone right.
Chris is a graduate of the University of San Diego. He is the former Sports Editor for the USDVista newspaper. Chris has covered the San Diego Loyal, and now covers San Diego State Men’s Basketball. He also contributes regularly about the Padres. Chris is an athlete and is a huge fan of San Diego sports.