The Xander Bogaerts contract already a major issue for the Padres

Credit: USA Today Sports

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Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

The nine years remaining on Xander Bogaerts’ contract is already a major issue for the San Diego Padres. 

The days of free-spending are over for the San Diego Padres.

Well, at least for the time being.

When Manny Machado signed with the Padres, it was for the richest contract in the history of North American sports. The 10-year, $300 million deal signed before the 2019 season seemed impossible coming from a perceived small-market team like the Padres. But it happened.

The Padres invested, and the fans came. In a brilliant move by the franchise, the Padres are now a relevant player in the league. Their formula should be adopted by other teams who are at a disadvantage in a wealthy league.

They may not be considered a small market team, but the franchise still does have limitations. We cannot ignore that.

With no TV contract, the Padres are disadvantaged over other “larger” franchises.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are being paid $7 billion for 25 years by Time Warner for exclusive TV rights to broadcast their games. That is $280 million a year in profits to the franchise. That is more than the Padres pay for their whole 40-man roster. The Dodgers also draw the most fans in the league, with 3.9 million fans attending games last year alone.

The Dodgers are also one of the most well-known franchises in the world and secures millions upon millions in merchandise profits alone. In evaluating the two franchises in terms of value, the Dodgers are worth more than $3.4 billion. The Padres come in at a value of $1.75 billion.

Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Padres and Bally Sports were in the middle of a 20-year contract that would have paid the Padres $1.2 billion, which was very useful. In early 2023, the contract was pulled, and so were the $60 million the Padres were to be paid yearly. Diamond Sports Group failed to live up to their obligation, and the Padres are the victims.

Losing out on $60 million per season is substantial when you are already at a distinct disadvantage.

The Padres handed out some bad contracts, though. Let’s not sugarcoat it.

Eric Hosmer is making $13 million in 2025 in his last year of the Padres commitment. Although Hosmer has not played for the team since 2022, the Padres have paid over $40 million to the first baseman during that span. There is no justifying this. From the beginning, it was a bad contract, and there is no way to defend it. An extra $13 million would go a long way toward improving the roster now.

The latest contract issue is that of Xander Bogaerts. Nine years and more than $229 million are left on the Bogaerts’ contract. In the two seasons with the Padres, Bogaerts owns a .747 OPS, which is not what the Padres imagined when they handed him an 11-year deal.

Bogaerts will make $25.45 million through the 2033 season when he is 40.

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The chance that this contract ages well are slim. Yes, the $25 million will be watered down at the tail end of the contract as baseball salaries climb. But if he is unable to perform at a rate above average, this is a horrendous overpay. Currently, Bogaerts looks average, and it is hard to imagine he gets better with age.

Two years into the 11-year deal with Bogaerts, the Padres are obviously regretting it. The money committed to him would be helpful right now. Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar both remain unsigned and there is only a small chance the Padres will retain either player. They cannot afford to sign them financially.

This winter, the Giants signed Willy Adames to a seven-year/$182 million deal. Adames is three years younger than Bogaerts. The deal with Bogaerts continues to look bad for San Diego.

The Padres are way too early in the deal with Bogaerts to go the way of Eric Hosmer and release him. The Padres will pay that committed money. They made their bed and will lie in it.

San Diego only hopes he justifies a fraction of his cost for the next nine years. For now, Bogaerts is deemed one of the worst contracts in baseball. The Padres will have to work around that and hope a fire is ignited under the infielder. The track record is there for Bogaerts to make this deal palatable. Until then, Padres fans will have that bad taste in their mouth.

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