Taking a look at the current San Diego Padres free agent class and the odds that the Padres will bring them back. 

The 2025 season did not end favorably for the Padres.

An inability to score runs doomed the squad from San Diego in their quest for a World Series title.

The season ended in Chicago, but as soon as the Padres made the last out, A.J. Preller was seen on the phone—the Padres GM is relentless when it comes to formulating his roster. The young GM is well aware that depth will be required for a sustained run. The 2025 Padres simply did not possess that with their offense.

Here is a look at the 11 men who could become free agents in the next couple of weeks. Five players are unrestricted free agents, and they will explore the open market. Two players hold their own option for the 2026 season. Then there are two players for whom the club holds the option for next season and two men who own a mutual option for 2026- meaning both sides must agree.

Decisions must be made. The next few weeks and months will undoubtedly shape the future for the Padres.

Luis Arraez- INF- 28 (unrestricted free agent)- $14 million salary in 2025

The three-time batting champion endured a down year where he seemed bothered by an early thumb injury and never regained his footing. In a contract year, Arraez uncharacteristically put the ball in the air more than in previous seasons. His game is pretty one-dimensional, as Arraez does not hit for power, walk, or possess a solid glove. He does put the ball in play consistently and is the hardest player in the league to strike out.

In the right lineup, his game could be handy to a contender. But it remains to be seen if the Padres are that team. The only way he may be brought back is on a one-year deal, and even then, the lineup would need to be revamped. It seems likely that somebody will give him a multi-year deal to DH and play second base.

Odds of returning to the Padres- 25%

Dylan Cease- RHP- 30 (unrestricted free agent)- $13.75 million salary in 2025

The Padres traded for Cease two seasons ago with the vision that he would be an ace. The right-handed pitcher did not pitch horribly for the Padres; he just never lived up to the expectations. Cease did eat innings and he threw the second no-hitter in franchise history, so the Padres did receive some value from him. He struck out batters at an epic rate, but Cease battled through innings and starts where he looked lost on the mound.

The Scott Boras client will expect top dollar. His 2025 season hurt his overall value, where he once looked like a $200 million pitcher. The fact that he does not miss his turn in the rotation is valuable, and he still throws in the upper 90s with a wipeout slider. Cease will drive a team crazy as he is prone to bad stretches. The Padres cannot afford him, and he will likely sign a multiple-year deal elsewhere this winter. The only chance for San Diego to retain him is if his market is dry and he pitches on a one-year, prove-it deal. Seems unlikely, though.

Odds of returning to the Padres- 10%

Robert Suarez– RHP- 34 (player option $8 million)- $9.2 million salary in 2025

The Padres are getting excellent value from the bullpen, and Robert Suarez is a big reason for that. He has saved 76 games over the last two seasons for San Diego. At the end of the 2024 season, there were concerns about his fastball. Suarez shied away from his change-up at the end of that season, but he brought the pitch back in 2025 in a major way. He is due for a raise and seems unlikely to take the $8 million option for 2026.

The Padres may try to sign him to a long-term deal (3-4 years), but that seems risky. Suarez is 34, and given the Padres’ financial issues, the money might be better spent on other roster needs. The Padres have Mason Miller on the roster as well, and he could easily fill the closer role for the team moving forward. However, the Padres may elect to turn Miller into a starter. There are several variables here.

Odds of returning to the Padres- 50%

Nestor Cortes- LHP- 31 (unrestricted free agent)- $8.3 million salary in 2025

The Padres brought in this lefty to strengthen the rotation. Though Cortes is not particularly old, his arm may be past its prime. His 2024 salary was way over his value. The lefty will need to take a big pay cut in 2026 to play in the majors. The Padres may explore bringing him back, but that all depends on cost.

Odds of returning to the Padres- 25%

Michael King– RHP- 30 (mutual option $15 million)- $7.750 million salary in 2025

The Padres needed Michael King to emerge in 2025, and he failed to do so. His mechanics are certainly a concern. Shoulder and arm injuries will be a constant theme for this pitcher, who throws across his body. The Padres are aware of that fact, but still love seeing King on the mound when he is able. He can be flat-out dominant, but you really have to wonder if he can ever be an innings eater in the rotation.

The $15 mutual option is interesting as the Padres may like the number, but King may think he is worth far more. If King’s arm is balky, he will likely take the option. If he feels 100 percent and is enthusiastic about his free agency, he could explore a long-term deal for $20 million or more per season for 3-4 years.  The Padres may also explore signing him long-term if they feel his arm is okay. There is a lot of risk here, but King is capable of being one of the best pitchers in the league.

Odds of returning to the Padres- 60%

Wandy Peralta– LHP- 34 (player option $4.45 million)- $4.125 million salary in 2025

After the 2024 season, the Padres would have given away Wandy Peralta. He put up a 3.99 ERA and spent time on the IL that season. In 2025, Peralta pitched in 71 games and became a valuable lefty in the middle innings. The Padres could use the extra money, but Peralta is a pretty good deal at $4.45 million in 2026. The lefty may think about exploring free agency, but the Padres are built to win now, and there is surely comfort in returning to San Diego.

Odds of returning to the Padres- 75%

Ramon Laureano– OF- 31 (club option $6.5 million)- $4 million salary in 2025

The Padres traded several relevant young prospects to the Orioles for Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano. It will be a few years before the prospects traded east reach the majors, but for now, the Padres obtained two solid major leaguers for their stretch run. Laureano has a club option for the 2026 season and $6.5 million, and is virtually guaranteed to be the Padres’ left fielder on opening day in 2026. His contract is a steal of a deal, and the Padres need all the financial freedom they can get.

Odds of returning to the Padres- 100%

Elias Diaz– C- 34 (mutual option $7 million)- $3.5 million in 2025

The Padres dragged their feet on catching upgrades last winter and signed Elias Diaz late in the offseason to go with Martin Maldonado. Neither did much for the team, pushing them to deal two young pitchers to the Kansas City Royals for their backup catcher, Freddy Fermin. Diaz will not be brought back in the 2026 season at a salary twice that of last season. The Padres will likely roll with Fermin and possibly look for another option somewhere.

Odds of returning to the Padres- 10%

Ryan O’Hearn- DH/1B- 32 (unrestricted free agent)- $3.5 million salary in 2025

Acquired with Laureano, O’Hearn served the Padres well in his few months with the team. The left-handed hitter fits well with the roster, and the Padres will surely explore bringing him back. The team has needs at first base and DH, and the big lefty would be servicable. The price tag will be the major hiccup here. O’Hearn is coming off his lone all-star season in the majors and will want to be paid. Do the Padres think he is worth the investment? Only time will tell.

Odds of returning to the Padres- 50%

Jose Iglesias- 3B- 35 (unrestricted free agent)- $3 million salary in 2025

The Padres signed Iglesias late in the winter. The veteran played well for the Padres in 2025, serving as a defensive wizard and filling in admirably for Xander Bogaerts when he went down with an injury. The Padres will explore bringing him back, but cost will be the determining factor. It probably isn’t going to happen, but you never know.

Odds of returning to the Padres- 15%

Kyle Hart- LHP- 32 (club option $5 million)- $1.5 million salary in 2025

The Padres hoped that Hart would be servicable after returning to major league action from the KBO. The lefty just could not perform in a starting role, but did okay out of the bullpen late in the season for the Padres. He is due a $5 million option for 2026, but the club will not pick it up. They could explore bringing him back on a lesser deal after he explores free agency.

Odds of returning to the Padres- 40%

James Clark

James was born and raised in America’s Finest City. He is a passionate baseball fan with even more passion towards his hometown Padres. James has written about the Padres and their prospects for over a decade. He also writes about San Diego State as well as other local sports. James is the Editor-In-Chief of EastVillageTimes.com. Always striving to bring you the highest quality in San Diego Sports News. Original content, with original ideas, that’s our motto. Enjoy.