Is there hope for San Diego Padres’ shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who still has eight years left on his contract? 

There is no doubt that Xander Bogaerts will never live up to the contract he signed with the Padres before the 2023 season. That is reality.

He has not been the player that members of the Padres organization hoped for when they signed him to the 11-year deal. There is also no need to rehash what could have been in the last three years if he performed the way he did in Boston. It is what it is.

However, there is reason to believe that Bogaerts may still have his best Padres baseball ahead of him.

Inconsistencies in Padres’ Tenure

It is important to remember that season-long stats or overall results do not always tell the whole story for a player.

This is precisely the case for Xander’s Padres tenure. His 2023 was very productive, but it was overshadowed by the disappointing team results. After a slow start, Bogaerts posted a .321/.364/.493 slash line with a 131 OPS+ in the second half. The power and defense took a slight decline from his prime, but that was expected at age 30.

Nothing in 2024 went Bogaerts’ way. A recurring wrist injury stifled his already average power, and a positional change to second base did not exactly help him get comfortable. Yet, he still posted an OPS of .760 after the MLB All-Star break and hit four home runs in September, contributing to a monster second-half surge for the Friars.

After yet another slow start to 2025, it seemed like this was just who Bogaerts was now. The return to shortstop helped defensively, but the traditional offensive numbers still looked abysmal through June 17. Thankfully, the numbers and the eyes do occasionally lie. 

Reason for Hope

Xander Bogaerts came alive and had a monster June and July last season (a full season recap can be found here). While it came as a shock to many, this is where the new statcast era of stats thrives. A quick scroll through MLB’s Baseball Savant page at that point revealed a story of hope. Bogaerts was hitting the ball as hard as he was in his best Boston years and was putting the ball in the air more than ever. Two signs of a hitter who should be having success. The expected numbers showed that he was both getting unlucky with balls in the air and that he had not always put the power and launch angle together quite yet.

Essentially, he was one adjustment away from going on a tear.

That adjustment came on June 18 against the Dodgers. He hit an RBI double at 112 mph off the bat, his fastest as a Padre. As mentioned in the article above, he also followed it with a 4-for-4 performance against the eventual World Series MVP, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He posted an OPS+ of 110 the rest of the season and played phenomenal defense, committing only eight errors and posting a Fielding Run Value in the 87th percentile of all qualified players. Although the postseason was short-lived, he led the team in hits and was third in OPS. This was the Xander Bogaerts who earned a big-time contract. 

So, should Padres fans expect a career year from Bogaerts in 2026?

The short answer is yes (health permitting, of course). Maybe the marine layer is Xander’s kryptonite and will never let him have a hot start in San Diego, but there are no other external factors that should slow him down. No team change, no position change, and a seemingly healthy wrist are all good signs for things to come. His swing was dialed in for most of last year, and a World Baseball Classic appearance for the Netherlands should get Bogaerts ready earlier than usual. It is easy to get overly optimistic about all players during Spring Training, but there is real evidence that the Padres’ shortstop will have a very productive 2026. 

One final takeaway for Bogaerts heading into 2026 and beyond.

No matter how fans feel about Bogaerts, his contract, or his production, he will be a Padre for the rest of his career.

His contract is untradeable, and he is by far the best shortstop option the Padres possess in the organization now. Also, the Padres go as their stars go. In wins last season, Xander posted a .871 OPS compared to a .516 in losses. Understandably, fans refuse to be optimistic for fear of getting disappointed and hurt by their team or players once again, but having hope is not such a bad thing. There is not only evidence that Bogaerts will play like a star once more, but there is plenty of reason to cheer him on regardless. 

Jacob Larose

Jacob grew up with Padres season tickets and walls plastered with Khalil Greene memorabilia. He has dedicated all of his young professional career towards becoming baseball’s next AJ Preller, having already worked with minor league and college teams in different roles. He is always scouring the Baseball Savant page to find the next little nugget that might help his hometown Padres (or his fantasy baseball team).