The 2024 MLB Trade Deadline has come and gone. Where do the Padres stand with the moves they made?

First, let’s review the Padres’ moves over the last few days.

Deal #1

Padres receive:

RHP Jason Adam

Rays receive:

RHP Dylan Lesko

OF Homer Bush Jr.

C J.D. Gonzalez

Deal #2

Padres receive:

LHP Tanner Scott

RHP Bryan Hoeing

Marlins receive:

RHP Adam Mazur

2B Jay Beshears

LHP Robby Snelling

3B Graham Pauley

Deal #3

Padres receive: 

Martin Perez

Pirates receive:

LHP Ronaldys Jimenez

Deal #4

Padres receive:

OF Brandon Lockridge

Yankees receive:

RHP Enyel De Los Santos

RHP Thomas Balboni Jr.

The Padres went big in the bullpen. Tanner Scott is an All-Star-level closer from the left side. That means the Padres now have a right-handed and left-handed closer who earned All-Star bids a few weeks ago at their disposal. Not to mention Jason Adam, who has an ERA under 3.00 in the last three seasons combined. Hoeing has a 2.70 ERA in 16 games as well.

Where does this leave the Padres regarding the race for the postseason and also in their minor league system?

NL West

The Padres were not the only National League West team busy as the clock ticked toward the deadline. The Los Angeles Dodgers made the headline move for starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, who was the best “rental” starter on the market. They also acquired Tommy Edman from the Cardinals and Michael Kopech from the White Sox in a three-team deal. They filled out depth by adding Amed Rosario and Kevin Kiermaier. The Dodgers’ pitching staff just got a lot better, all while Clayton Kershaw has returned to the rotation for the first time this season.

With the heroics Tuesday against the Dodgers, the Padres are now just 5.5 games back of first place. The Dodgers are only going to get healthier, so they will be hard to catch. However, if the Padres play like they did after the first inning against the Dodgers Tuesday night, they could make the NL West interesting down the stretch.

Wild Card Race

The Padres occupy the third and final Wild Card spot at the moment. The surging Mets have an equal winning percentage and take slot two. The Braves currently have the top Wild Card spot, thus would have the ability to host a Wild Card Series at their ballpark. However, their lead over the Mets and Padres is just half of a game.

In Arizona, the Diamondbacks are nervous about a potentially long injured list stint for slugger Christian Walker. They added struggling Josh Bell to be a fill-in. Even without their power-hitting first baseman, the D-backs are a direct threat to the Padres in pursuit of a Wild Card spot. Arizona is right on the Padres’ heels, just a half of a game behind. They also bolstered their bullpen by nabbing Dylan Floro from the Nationals. However, they did not make any splashy moves. They feel like they can make a run as is. Corbin Carroll is also heating up at the right time.

The Cardinals stand two games behind the Padres for the third spot. They swung a sizable deal with the White Sox for upstart starter Erick Fedde and veteran Tommy Pham. Shawn Armstrong adds veteran stability to their bullpen, coming over from Tampa Bay. However, to do so, they parted with Dylan Carlson. Overall, the Cardinals got better with Fedde and Pham. They and the Diamondbacks seem like the most imminent threat to the Padres for a playoff spot.

The Pirates are a wild card, literally. They have Paul Skenes (kind of like how the Avengers have a Hulk). They also added Bryan De La Cruz from the Marlins to boost the lineup depth. If Skenes gets some help by other starters getting healthy and stepping up, with an improved offense, they also can make the Wild Card teams uncomfortable.

The Giants had a strange deadline. There were rumors that they were going to ship out reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell, but never did. However, they parted with slugger Jorge Soler, who heads to the Braves once again. In response, they acquired veteran Mark Canha from the Tigers. At 53-56, they are five games out of the Wild Card. If things break right, they can still make a run.

There are six teams within two games of a Wild Card spot in the NL.

Donovan Solano is the hero in the @Padres #walkoff win! pic.twitter.com/I4HEUczMLZ

— MLB (@MLB) July 31, 2024

Farm System

If you’re a “prospect hugger,” you might want to look away. However, there is something to be said for A.J. Preller being able to add Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, Tanner Scott, and Jason Adam without having to part with their top two position player prospects, Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries. Those two have survived another trade deadline.

Now, for the damage.

Snelling goes to the Marlins in the deal for Scott. He was San Diego’s top pitching prospect and No. 2 overall in the system. MLB Pipeline has him as the 44th-best prospect in all of baseball. That one could hurt. However, this year, he had a 6.01 ERA in 73 innings in Double-A. His progress seemed to have plateaued. Miami might feel like they can jumpstart his progress.

Lesko was San Diego’s second-best pitching prospect. He is now with the Rays. If you know anything about the Rays’ organization, you know this move has the potential to look bad if they develop Lesko to be an ace-type. However, he too struggled in the minor leagues this season, with a 6.46 ERA in 16 starts for High-A Fort Wayne.

Frankly, the Padres parted with mostly depth pieces in the farm after those two. Adam Mazur had struggled in what was likely a premature call to the majors. Graham Pauley didn’t have a spot, being blocked by Manny Machado at third. Beshears likely wasn’t going to make the Padres roster until at least 2026.

As it stands now, the top five prospects in the Padres’ farm system stand as thus, per MLB Pipeline:

1. Ethan Salas, C
2. Leodalis De Vries, SS
3. Ryan Bergert, RHP
4. Austin Krob, LHP
5. Victor Lizarraga, RHP

They still do have two top 100 overall prospects in Salas and De Vries. But overall, the top-end talent of the system took a massive hit.

Will It Be Enough?

As mentioned, the Padres are now in an absolute rock fight for a Wild Card spot. Seemingly, all three Wild Card spots are open with basically six or seven teams in the mix. Half of those teams will have a bitterly disappointing end to the season. The Padres sacrificed not getting an elite starting pitcher (there were very few actually available) in the name of making theirs perhaps the best bullpen in baseball. The question is, can the rotation weather the storm?

Joe Musgrove is still on the injured list but is due back in a week or two. The organization has no idea if Yu Darvish is coming back at all this season. That leaves Dylan Cease, Michael King, Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, and Martin Perez to shoulder the load in the rotation. If the Padres can make the playoffs, the need for starting depth decreases, and the need for elite bullpen arms increases. That favors San Diego. However, it’s getting to the playoffs at all that is the trick.

The Padres also did not add a single bat. They are rolling with who they have in the lineup and on the bench. San Diego is averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in MLB. The hope is Fernando Tatis Jr. can return and be his All-Star self sometime later this summer. If he does, this lineup can be dangerous and complement the pitching staff well.

Of course, health will be a big deciding factor on the fate of the 2024 Padres. But if healthy, this seems like a roster that’s ready for a run. They have already shown that, as they are 21-11 in their last 32 games.

Nick Lee

Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.