San Diego Padres’ outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is not hitting for power. So what gives? 

A very unfamiliar and alarming storyline has been developing lately surrounding the offensive production from Fernando Tatis Jr.

It’s already mid-May, and the San Diego Padres are more than 40 games into the 2026 season, but Tatis Jr. has yet to see a ball leave the yard. He is one of five qualified hitters still without a home run. Even old friend Luis Arraez has managed to log a home run thus far.

It’s been very concerning to see the lack of power from Tatis Jr., who’s in the midst of his seventh major league season and has accumulated 152 career home runs. We know he’s capable of being a serious threat at the plate with the ability to hit 25-40 home runs per season, but it just doesn’t seem to be clicking yet this year.

Through his first 43 games of the year, Tatis Jr. has posted a poor .238/.311/.281 slash line to go along with only six extra-base hits. He’s not the only star struggling in San Diego, as Manny Machado is hitting just .185, Jackson Merrill is hitting .210, and Jake Cronenworth owns a .144 batting average. 

The whole offensive, for the most part, has been struggling except for a few bright spots. Xander Bogaerts and Luis Campusano have both been solid producers on offense, along with offseason additions Ty France and Miguel Andujar. It’s tough for a team to be competitive when its stars aren’t performing — that’s exactly what’s happening with the Padres.

Sudden Drop in Power Production

Circling back to Tatis Jr., his metrics have really taken a step back thus far. Looking specifically at his power production, while his xSLG sat at .488 last season (84th percentile), it’s seen a noticeable drop all the way down to a .396 mark, which is good for league average. 

Tatis Jr. is sporting a career-worst .044 isolated power, where he’s averaged a .225 mark for his career. League average generally will sit around a .145 clip. This stat is calculated by subtracting a batter’s average from their slugging percentage — a good power hitter will have a noticeable difference between the two, but as of now, Tatis Jr. does not. He’s only slugging .281, where he has slugged .500 over seven major league seasons.

Timing and Vision Problems

Timing and vision are huge for hitters, and it might be an issue for Tatis Jr. through the first month or two of the season. His walk rate is down from 12.9% last year to 9.8% currently, and he’s whiffing at 4.9% of pitches. This has led to a way higher strikeout rate than we’re used to seeing from him; it’s climbed 5.8% from last season to present. Take into mind that 2025 was kinda an outlier season for Tatis Jr. in terms of striking out. He struck out 18.7% of the time last year, where he’s averaged 23.5% for his career.

While Tatis Jr. has actually gained one mph in bat speed from last season, he is having a tougher time hitting fastballs and pulling the baseball. Over his career, Tatis Jr. has always destroyed fastballs, with 61.8% of his home runs off fastballs. For a guy who hit .332 against fastballs last year, it’s down to .258 in 2026. He’s always been around an average hitter against breaking balls and offspeed pitches, so it’s definitely worth concern that he’s not being able to hit a pitch that’s normally his bread and butter.

His inability to hit fastballs this season could indicate a timing issue. It also aligns with the fact that he’s pulling far fewer pitches. His pull-air% is only 5% right now, where he has a career 14.9% mark. His career mark is still a tad below average, but dropping all the way down to 5% is not good. For Tatis Jr., he is pulling 25% of batted balls (37.7% career average), hitting balls straight 45.8% of the time (39.7% career average), and hitting the ball to the opposite field at a 29.2% clip (22.6% career average). 

Either he’s completely changed his approach at the plate or is having a really hard time catching up to faster speeds and pulling the baseball. Even with this problem, Tatis Jr. has always sprayed his home runs to all parts of the ballpark, which is interesting.

The biggest problem in Tatis Jr’s swing profile is his average launch angle. He’s averaged an abysmal 2.2 launch angle this season — far less than the 9.8 league average and 12.5 career average. This also explains why his groundball rate has risen to a career high mark.

Quick Recap: Surrounding Tatis Jr’s Power Outage

The production from Tatis Jr. this year has clearly not been the same, and fans are flabbergasted about what’s been wrong with him. Luckily, there is evidence of why he’s not able to do the damage he’d like on fastballs this year, when he normally obliterates fastballs. His pull percentage is way down, and he’s not generating any lift on batted balls.

He still provides good value in the outfield and on the base paths, but Tatis is going to need to get his bat back quickly (along with many other Padres) if they want to stay competitive. The Padres currently rank 28th in OPS (.657), while their team ERA ranks 16th (4.04). They’ve been getting below-average results on both sides of the ball, but still stand nine games above .500 with a record of 27-18. They do have a +2 run differential, which is contributing to their expected record of 22-22.

Cade Lalim

Hi, my name is Cade Lalim. I live in Southern California and I’m a huge baseball fan. I am a senior at Laguna Beach High School and will be attending Irvine Valley College starting in the fall of 2026. My goal is to work in the baseball industry whether that’ll be journalism or with a team. I’m super excited to contribute to San Diego Padres coverage here on East Village Times.