The Padres got a historic rookie season out of Jackson Merrill in 2024. What does the next step look like?

When the Padres moved touted shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill to the outfield during Spring Training last season, there is no way the team could’ve realistically expected him to perform like he did in 2024.

The fact that he was just 20 years old on Opening Day last year, playing at the MLB level, at a brand new defensive position he hadn’t even played in the minor leagues, was incredible all by itself. Then, he blew right past any reasonable person’s expectations from the jump.

In the end, Merrill put together one of the most memorable and impressive rookie seasons in not just Padres history but MLB history.

Jackson Merrill keeps on hitting!

He now holds the @Padres rookie record for RBI in a season with 82 pic.twitter.com/epdBK5Iexr

— MLB (@MLB) September 5, 2024

Among Padres rookie seasons in franchise history, Merrill set the record for RBI (90) and finished second in homers (24). Only Ozzie Smith in 1978 appeared in more games in their rookie season than Merrill’s 156.

Let’s not gloss over the fact that he was in the 97th percentile for Outs Above Average in center field, a brand-new position. He led all NL centerfielders with eight assists.

Of course, the story of Merrill’s rookie season is written by his ability to come through in the clutch. Overall, he hit two walk-off home runs along with three other go-ahead homers, with four game-tying home runs. Eight of his home runs came in the seventh inning or later. He was one RBI short (25) of tying for the MLB lead in RBI after the seventh inning.

However you slice it, Merrill was one of the most clutch hitters in all of baseball last year as a rookie.

Had it not been for the existence of pitching phenom Paul Skenes, Merrill would’ve been the runaway NL Rookie of the Year. Still, he earned seven of the possible 30 first-place votes. All the other 23 went to the Pirates’ right-hander. The Padres’ lefty slugger didn’t come away empty-handed. He earned an All-Star nod and a Silver Slugger for his rookie season breakout. He even finished ninth in NL MVP voting (higher than Skenes, for what it’s worth).

So, now what? What does Merrill do in 2025 for an encore? Is it fair to expect a similarly brilliant season?

The term “sophomore slump” is a term for a reason. Many great players who burst onto the scene suffered something of a swoon in year two. They still went on to historic careers after that. Recent examples are Corbin Carroll from Arizona, who finished fifth in NL MVP voting in 2023 but floundered in year two to a 107 OPS+ and 2.0 less WAR.

Cody Bellinger set the world on fire in 2017, winning Rookie of the Year with a 143 OPS+. His second year saw his OPS+ drop to 120. His third year brought even more success than his rookie year, winning NL MVP.

Is Merrill set for a sophomore slump? He certainly doesn’t have to be. Several of those players had holes in their swings that were exposed in year two. Take Bellinger, for example, who had a strikeout rate of 26.6 percent in his rookie year. Merrill turned in a K-rate of 17 percent last year. Merrill’s 97th percentile expected batting average and, 96th percentile expected slugging percentage, and .318 BABIP suggest Merrill somewhat underachieved in 2024.

What if he gets more normal luck in 2025?

It’s hard for guys with an elite level of hard-hit rate, sweet-spot rate, and good speed to get into a slump for long. Part of learning how to be a big leaguer is learning how to deal with a slump and break out of it.

You could argue Merrill went through a “slump” in the month of July, where he batted .259 with a .690 OPS. Meanwhile, he turned in three other months batting north of .300 with over a .900 OPS.

After a so-so July, Merrill responded with a hot finish to the season. In fact, he finished with a .945 OPS in the second half alone. He seemed to get better as the season got later. That isn’t normal for rookies. They get exposed to more and more pitching, and MLB hurlers gather more and more data on how to beat them.

The thing is, Merrill isn’t normal.

While it’s certainly possible Merrill doesn’t live up to the extremely high standards he set last year (4.4 WAR, 127 OPS+ at 21 years old), the odds are against him totally tanking. The numbers don’t add up.

It’s more likely Merrill either has just as good, if not (gulp), and even better season in 2025.

Ronald Acuna Jr. won Rookie of the Year in 2018 and then finished fifth in MVP voting his second season. Merrill’s teammate to his left in the outfield, Fernando Tatis Jr., suffered no such sophomore slump in 2020. All Tatis did was post a 156 OPS+, finish fourth in MVP voting, and bat-flip his way onto the cover of MLB The Show 21.

If you listen to how Merrill approaches the game or even life, he doesn’t seem like a guy who is satisfied with his season and, thus, will rest on his laurels. Merrill simply loves ball. The entire baseball world now knows who he is.

That doesn’t seem to bother him. Nor do the big moments where a clutch hit is needed. It’s hard to wrap your head around a guy who is not even 22 years old, having seen a full season of MLB pitching, along with some playoff experience, with elite peripheral hitting numbers as a great athlete, will randomly drop off in year two.

More likely than not, Merrill Madness is here to stay in San Diego.

Nick Lee

Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.