What Statcast’s new swing metrics tell us about the Padres’ hitters

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The new MLB swing metrics and how they work-

In the advancing world of baseball analytics and technology, an industry that always seems to be at its peak, just got even better.

Statcast’s recent efforts have been geared toward swing data, and as of Tuesday, possibly the biggest update to bat tracking technology was added. Attack Angle, Attack Direction, and Swing Tilt are the latest tools that can help us to analyze a hitter’s profile. Also, Ideal Attack Angle was added as a percentile-based stat to gauge how often a hitter takes a competitive swing.

To break the metrics down more simply, Attack Angle is the angle of the bat at the point of contact. A completely flat swing that matches the ball at the sweet spot would earn a 0° attack angle.

For Attack Direction, it’s basically the point of contact. For example, Isaac Paredes‘ attack direction of 15° pull is the farthest ahead of any hitter; meanwhile, Brice Turang‘s average of 11° opposite checks in as the farthest behind the ball.

Finally, for Swing Tilt, it’s the angle of the bat in comparison to the ground. So, going back to the completely flat swing example, that cut would register with 0° of tilt. On the contrary, it would be taking the pitching wedge on the links and swinging completely downwards.

Where do Padres players stand within these metrics?

For starters, the metrics reinforce the gap-to-gap philosophy of hitting coach Victor Rodriguez. Seven of the Padres eleven hitters with over 100 competitive swings have an average attack direction of 0° pull or less. With league average being 3° pull, it’s clear that there’s a real emphasis on going the opposite way.

The exceptions are also reasonable. Xander Bogaerts has made a career by pulling balls and going back up the middle. Gavin Sheets and Jason Heyward are both power-minded hitters who make their money pulling balls down the line. Elias Diaz, who’s near league average, looks to pull balls ahead in the count and fight off pitches the other way later in the count.

Another notable observation is the matching 37° of swing tilt shared between the contact wizards, Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill. With the league average hovering around 30°, Arraez and Merrill’s relatively steeper swings help them get their bats on more breaking pitches. This helps them avoid strikeouts and punish balls down in the zone.

Lastly, the Padres’ eleven qualified batters have notably lower-than-average attack angles. The same trio of Bogaerts, Sheets, and Heyward leads the way at roughly a 10° attack angle, but the roster, for the most part, clearly opts against the “uppercut” swing. Compared to their  NL West foes, the Dodgers and D-Backs, who average around an 11-12° as a team, San Diego is clearly more contact-minded, as they average about 7-8°. As a result, Los Angeles and Arizona rank first and third in home runs among all teams. San Diego checks in at 23rd in home runs, but ranks third in the league in average.

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What do the metrics tell us about the stars and their outlooks?

In the case of Fernando Tatis Jr., his swing has been visibly evolving every season. In his first campaign back in 2023, his swing was longer, but slower relative to his capability. However, he was swinging with a 12° attack angle, the highest he recorded in a season. However, in 2024, he started making contact deeper in the zone, using a lower attack angle and swinging harder. The changes resulted in improved contact production, while the power was still in place. By 2025, Tatis Jr. lowered his attack angle down to 7° and has made his swing much shorter as well. It’s translated to a .304 average, nearly two full months into the season.

While not as drastic as the changes made by Tatis Jr., Manny Machado‘s swing has been changing as well. Earlier on in his career, Machado was notorious for his long and powerful swing that allowed him to do damage on all types of pitches. As he’s aged, he’s taken some heat off his cuts and has been able to improve his Ideal Attack Angle%, likely due to his experience at the plate. Like Tatis Jr., he’s seeing incredible contact results at the plate early on in 2025, though without the usual home run production.

As mentioned beforehand with Jackson Merrill, his swing has a deeper tilt to it. With a steeper angle, Merrill excels against north and south pitching. What I mean by that is that he’s the most consistent when he sees pitches that break downwards, or have an upwards ride on them. So, against four-seamers and curveballs, Merrill is batting .360 and .556, respectively. Consequently, horizontal-breaking pitches have challenged him more. He’s batting just .125 against sweepers and .200 against sinkers, with a whiff rate above 28% on both of them.

 

Key Takeaways

All in all, the new tracking data confirms the Padres’ gap-to-gap philosophy, as well as providing insight into several players’ hitting profiles.

Tatis Jr.’s new leg kick isn’t the only adjustment that’s creating his improved contact output. Intercepting the ball deeper, keeping the ball out of the air as much, and flattening his swing have all contributed to his current .300+ AVG

Swings with steeper tilt– such as Arraez, Merrill, and Jose Iglesias– appear to correlate towards good contact skills and reduced whiff rates. In fact, among the qualified Padres hitters, swing tilt nearly correlates to whiff rate perfectly.

San Diego’s offensive emphasis on whole-field hitting is evident. Most hitters on the roster make their contact much deeper than league average, especially those in the top of the order.

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