Dylan Cease is set to become a free agent following the 2025 season. If the San Diego Padres want to remain competitive in the years to come, a contract extension or — at the very least a contingency plan should Cease test free agency — needs to be on the radar of AJ Preller and the rest of the front office.

The phrase “your best ability is availability” has never rung more true than it does in today’s game, especially when it comes to starting pitching. While Cease (career 3.79 ERA) may not pose prime Pedro Martinez numbers on a yearly basis, the 29-year-old brings something increasingly rare among modern power pitchers: durability.

Since 2020, Cease has started 151 games on the bump — the most in all MLB. In fact, he has not missed a single turn in the rotation in the five-year sample. That availability, combined with one of the highest ceilings in the game, makes Cease uniquely valuable.

In 2022, he finished second in American League Cy Young voting with a 2.20 ERA. Last year, in 2024 — his first season in the brown and gold — Cease fared fourth in National League voting with a 3.47 ERA in 189.1 innings.

Yes, Cease can be described as a streaky pitcher who has had struggles and problems throughout his career. In his historic 2022, he led the AL in walks (78).

Does that remind you of anyone?

Blake Snell won the 2023 NL Cy Young with the Padres with an MLB-best 2.20 ERA and MLB-high 99 free passes. Clearly, Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla works magic with talented pitchers who struggle to command the baseball.

Cease debuted with the White Sox in 2019 as a midseason call-up and pitched his first full season in 2021 after the shortened 2020 campaign. In his first season under Niebla in 2024, Cease walked 65 hitters, his fewest in a full season since becoming a rotation mainstay.

Other than a nightmare start in which he surrendered nine earned runs in four frames against the Athletics, Cease has been a reliable second starter in the Padres’ 2025 rotation.

If San Diego is serious about keeping Cease in San Diego long-term, the blueprint might already exist — and it’s also wearing pinstripes.

This past offseason, Max Fried signed an eight-year, $218 million deal with the Yankees at 31, setting a new precedent for long-term pitching contracts. In an inflation-adjusted market, Fried’s contract signaled that teams are willing to commit nearly a decade of guaranteed money to established arms — even as they approach their mid-30s — if durability and performance are part of the package.

At a younger age of 29 and with an iron-arm track record, Cease’s contract will likely be more valuable and potentially longer than that of Fried, who has two top-five Cy Young finishes on his resume.

If Cease outputs a strong 2025 and hits the open market, expect his representatives to push for something in the ballpark of a decade-long deal worth well north of $200 million, given his age, talent, and unmatched durability.

All things considered, keeping Dylan Cease won’t be cheap. The Padres will have to ask themselves a tough question: do they have the money, and are they willing to spend it, especially with interest looming in re-signing Luis Arráez and Michael King?

King, 30, is arguably the better pitcher when he’s at his best, showing flashes of ace-level command and elite movement. However, 2024 was King’s first full season as a starting pitcher, and questions about his long-term arm health with his across-the-body arm motion raise concern.

If the Padres want a high-ceiling arm they can count on every fifth day, Cease might be the safest long-term bet. For now, San Diego needs him to stay healthy in what is a rotation with firepower that lacks depth.

Max Schwartzberg

A San Diegan born and raised, Max Schwartzberg is a diehard Padres fan who created and hosts the YouTube channel Padres Previews, a hub where he passionately delivers Padres news, updates, reactions, and hype videos. At Northeastern, Max broadcasts and writes for baseball, basketball, and hockey. Max dreams of following in the steps of Padres broadcaster and Northeastern alumnus Don Orsillo to become a Major League Baseball announcer.