Luis Arraez played much of his 2024 season hurt. Yet, he still won a batting title. What does a healthy 2025 look like?

Batting titles are cool again in San Diego. Luis Arraez polished off a solid 2024 season with a .314 average, winning his third consecutive batting title. He is the first player in MLB history to win three batting titles with three different teams.

It is the first time a San Diego Padre won a batting title since Mr. Padre himself, Tony Gwynn. Yes, that guy. It’s not fair to compare Arraez to Gwynn directly, but it’s as close as San Diego has had to him in a long time.

However, it was apparent throughout the back half of the season that Arraez wasn’t healthy. Frequently, he would foul off a pitch and, yelp in pain and shake his left hand. He revealed he had a torn ligament in his left thumb but was playing through it. It hampered him throughout much of his tenure with the Padres, which started in early May.

Still, Arraez was an instrumental part of the Padres winning 93 games (second-most in franchise history) and being within one win of a trip to the NLCS.

Arraez had surgery to repair that thumb over the offseason and is feeling good. He posted right after the season ended,

“Today, I underwent surgery on my thumb after pushing through an injured half of the season. Despite the pain, I continued to play, but it became clear that surgery was necessary to fully recover. The procedure went smoothly and I’m now focused on healing and getting back.”

If Arraez can hit .314 and win a batting title with a torn thumb, what is possible with a healthy 2025?

The easy answer is- just look at his numbers with the Marlins and Twins.

From 2019 through 2023, Arraez batted .323 with a .790 OPS.

In 2024, he finished at .314 and .739 respectively.

It’s safe to say that Arraez can do better than his 2024 numbers, which still earned him his third consecutive All-Star bid as well. His .310 expected batting average from 2024 is down from .329 in 2023.

While Arraez won’t make anyone forget about Barry Bonds in the power department, his slugging numbers also were down last year.

It’s easier to see how Arraez might have been affected by the injury in some of the peripheral stats. His barrel rate got cut in half, going from 3.5% in 2023 down to 1.6% last season. His career average is 2.7%.

He went to the opposite field the least amount in his career. During his career, he owns a 32.1% oppo rate for batted balls and a 30.5% pull rate. In 2024, he went to the opposite field just 29.8% of the time while pulling the ball at a 32.7% clip.

That could be symptomatic of not being able to flick his wrists and hit the ball with authority the other way as much with a bad thumb.

It also appeared to hamper him consistently making hard contact. After posting a 29.8% hard contact rate in 2023, that dropped to 22.9% with the Padres.

Given the fact that a healthy Arraez should be able to hit the ball harder and go the opposite way more often, his numbers should naturally improve.

It’s not hard to imagine Arraez hitting that .320 batting average plateau once again, as he did in 2019, 2020, and 2023. Atop the Padres lineup, that means the meaty part of the order in San Diego will have runners on base more often. That seems like a good thing.

Nick Lee

Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.