An unforeseen pair of twists have come for the San Diego Padres starting rotation plans, so where does the team go from here?

This question has been a norm for the Padres over the last few seasons: Who is the fifth starter?

A.J. Preller has made a habit of dealing for starting pitching late in offseasons and during Spring Training (look at Sean Manaea and Dylan Cease), and while this could come to be the case yet again, it appears unlikely with every passing day. This leaves four contenders for the final rotation spot, as Jhony Brito is confirmed to be working in relief. 

Make it three.

On March 14, right-hander Matt Waldron suffered an oblique injury while warming up to enter the game versus the Texas Rangers.

Oblique injuries can be some of the most finicky for teams to navigate, as teams never want players to suffer a second setback, and manager Mike Shildt echoed that sentiment when speaking to the media about Waldron’s injury. Waldron’s injury is unfortunate, as the knuckleballer was looking for a bounce-back outing after being torched in his last outing (6 ER in 1.2 innings vs San Francisco).

Now on the shelf for at least a month, the Padres will look to their remaining candidates for a rotation spot. The race for the final rotation spot could become even more important with Yu Darvish’s next start being delayed due to “fatigue,” and while he could be ready for the team’s season-opening series against the Braves, it remains a storyline to watch closely over the rest of the Cactus League action. 

Yu Darvish has what Mike Shildt called "general fatigue" and hasn't thrown past couple days. "Just want to be smart, getting into a long season," Shildt said.

No clarity on when Darvish would resume throwing. Also unclear whether he'd be available in the season-opening rotation.

— AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell) March 17, 2025

Perhaps that is one of many reasons why Michael King has been announced as the Opening Day starter.

Kyle Hart is one of three pitchers who could claim the open spot.

Hart made his second start of the spring on March 16, allowing three runs in three-plus innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Hart struck out three batters against the Snakes, and while the whiff numbers weren’t overly impressive (18% whiff rate in 22 swings), the sort of contact the crafty left-hander allowed told a better story than the final line.

Six of eleven balls in play did not register as hard-hit balls (<95 mph exit velocity), and his sweeper tunneled well off his four-seam and vice versa. This outing was merely his second of the Cactus League season, as he has been slowed by illness so far, but Hart could have two more starts to really seize the fifth spot.

Based solely on stuff, Hart has the highest floor of the three remaining contenders for a rotation spot and, as a left-hander, presents a different wrinkle from the quartet of Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Nick Pivetta.

Also in the running for the fifth spot in the rotation is former Rule 5 pick Stephen Kolek.

While we have covered Kolek’s case for a rotation spot here at EVT, Kolek strengthened his case for a rotation spot with a very impressive outing against Kansas City on March 13. Kolek threw four innings of one-run baseball against the Royals, striking out two and walking one. This outing didn’t see the chase or whiff rates Kolek flashed when he was on last season, but the right-hander was able to hold the Royals at bay, facing two over the minimum and generating two double plays.

The numbers aren’t the flashiest with Kolek, but he has shown an ability to provide length while keeping a low pitch count (42 pitches in four innings on 3/13). This could serve the team well in the regular season, but as of March 16, he could be in the pole position to open the season at the back of the rotation. 

That leaves Randy Vasquez as the final contender for the final spot.

Vasquez has also only made two appearances in official games, allowing seven runs (two earned) in four innings. Most of the right-hander’s work has taken place on the backfields or in simulated games, where he has thrown nine shutout innings in two starts. The next step for the right-hander would be to make a third appearance in a Major League Spring Training game, which he is set to do around March 19-21.

The right-handed pitcher is the biggest wild card in the trio of remaining candidates, as his breaking pitches flash upside (including a 116 Stuff+ on his slider), but his command and location have not caught up to the peak of his stuff. With one more strong start, Vasquez could outdo his competition in the pursuit of the rotation spot, but it will depend on which version of Vasquez takes the hill. 

With three candidates and a week left in Cactus League play, San Diego has some tough decisions coming up, especially if their contenders continue to put up strong performances.

Diego Garcia

A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.

A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.