After an extremely competitive spring training, the dust has settled, and the lineup is locked in.

Mike Shildt’s group is ready to go. The same can be said for Brian Snitker‘s Braves, who will be far more prepared than when they matched up with San Diego in the N.L. Wild Card round last season.

The 2024 All-Star Jurickson Profar was a large part of both the clubs’ off-seasons in different ways. He checks in as the Braves’ biggest addition and the Padres’ biggest winter loss. Notable additions elsewhere for Atlanta are Bryan De La Cruz, who’s expected to platoon versus left-handers, and splitter artist Hector Neris to round out the bullpen.

For San Diego, it was a quantity-over-quality approach. They signed numerous veterans to fill the holes left behind by Profar, David Peralta, Donovan Solano, and Ha-Seong Kim. With the 26-man roster released, a platoon of Brandon Lockridge and Jason Heyward in left, with Yuli Gurriel at DH is likely how San Diego will fill those holes.

Pitching-wise, the big move was getting Nick Pivetta on four years, $55M to solidify the rotation. Kyle Hart was also added to the mix from the KBO, along with Ron Marinaccio on a minor-league deal.

Pitching Matchups

For the probable starters, here’s the information we have as of now:

– The expected order for the Braves will be Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach, A.J Smith-Shawver, and Grant Holmes on Monday versus L.A., according to a tweet from Braves beat writer Mark Bowman

– King will start Opening Day for San Diego, followed by Dylan Cease. Saturday’s pitcher has yet to be named, but Nick Pivetta is scheduled to go on Sunday, per Sammy Levitt of 97.3 The Fan.

Game 1: LHP Chris Sale vs. RHP Michael King

Game 2: RHP Reynaldo Lopez vs. RHP Dylan Cease

Game 3: RHP Spencer Schwellenbach vs. TBD

Game 4: RHP A.J. Smith-Shawver vs. RHP Nick Pivetta

Braves Pitchers

The major injury absence is Spencer Strider, as he’s made great progress coming back from Tommy John surgery but ultimately will not be ready for Opening Day. The marquee matchup will be King, who struck out 12 over seven scoreless versus Atlanta last October, versus the reigning NL Cy Young Chris Sale on Opening Day. Another interesting nugget to watch for is López’s fastball, which saw a dip in velocity in spring training. Also of note will be A.J. Smith-Shawver making just his third MLB start, after surrendering three runs over just one and third against San Diego in the Wild Card round last season.

Out of the bullpen, the 35-year-old Raisel Igleisas is back in the closer role, along with the former Padre Pierce Johnson and the criminally underrated left-hander Aaron Bummer. As mentioned earlier, Hector Neris will join the mix, along with Enyel De Los Santos, who began his 2024 with San Diego before being flipped to New York for Brandon Lockridge. However, the bullpen will be without Joe Jimenez due to injury. Jimenez posted a lockdown 2.62 ERA in 2024 with Atlanta.

Braves Hitters

The newest Brave, Jurickson Profar, is projected to lead off, and with Austin Riley back in the mix, the Braves’ starting nine should look a lot more like it did in 2023, especially when Ronald Acuña returns in a month or so. Here’s what their lineup could look like on Thursday:

1. Jurickson Profar – Left Field
2. Austin Riley – Third Base
3. Matt Olson – First Base
4. Marcell Ozuna – Designated Hitter
5. Michael Harris II – Center Field
6. Ozzie Albies – Second Base
7. Drake Baldwin – Catcher
8. Jarred Kelenic – Right Field
9. Orlando Arcia – Shortstop

Atlanta has five boppers at the top of the order and experience in Albies and Arcia. Kelenic is expected to be the left-handed portion of the platoon with Bryan De La Cruz. At catcher, the Braves are rolling with their top prospect and MLB Pipeline’s No. 62 overall prospect, Drake Baldwin. Baldwin had an excellent 2024 season at Triple-A, where he posted a .891 OPS. The Braves lineup is extremely power-oriented. Despite the major injuries, Atlanta led the MLB in home runs in 2023 and was fourth last season.

Keys to the Series

For the visiting Braves:

Make the starters work: Atlanta allowed Michael King to go seven scoreless innings with just 89 pitches. All three of San Diego’s starters are capable of throwing 100+ pitches while maintaining effectiveness. If you’re the Braves, you cannot allow King, Cease, and Pivetta to waltz through 6+ IP and hand it off to Jason Adam and Robert Suarez. Ideally, you want to see a good chunk of the Padres’ middle relievers, especially in the first two games.

Stay within striking distance: In the Wild Card round, Joe Jimenez made one appearance in Game 2, and Rasiel Iglesias saw no action. The Braves lineup is constructed very well for the late innings, and they have valuable late-inning weapons in Bummer and Iglesias, but they need to be able to utilize them. If they can get to the eighth in a one-run game, they’ll be in a great spot.

For the Padres

Jump on the fastball early: Sale, Schwellenbach, and Smith-Shawver all feature great breaking and off-speed pitches. The Padres cannot wait and sit around long enough to see them. With the exception of López, the starters’ fastballs are all their most vulnerable pitch. It should be a focal point to swing early and often at the heaters.

Avoid the free passes: San Diego was able to dominate the Braves in the Wild Card because they were effective and deceptive in the zone. They issued just one walk in the series, keeping pitch counts down, traffic off the bases, and limit RBI potential. In all likelihood, there will be homers. But if the Padres can keep the bases empty, it’ll be challenging for the Braves to manufacture runs.

Willy Warren

A 17-year-old San Diego native, Willy Warren is a baseball fan at heart who created High Leverage Baseball, a combination of around-the-league statistical analysis and breakdowns on X, and daily newsletters on the TikTok platform. Willy passionately studies Journalism at San Dieguito Academy, and is working to become billingual in Spanish to assist in communicating with Latin-born players and coaches.