Padres Editorial: Relieving a Manager, Restarting the Pendulum.
To my knowledge, Bud Black has yet to make any public statements in the wake (no pun intended) of being terminated by the San Diego Padres. Yet after dedicating eight grueling years of his life to a franchise thatās been mired in mediocrity, you canāt help but wonder what the manās thinking, feeling and saying in private.
I had the pleasure of meeting Buddy a few years back and found him to be – as so many others have – instantly likable, quick-witted and chipper. And this was at the end of yet another losing season. Yet despite his upbeat, magnetic demeanor, I couldnāt help but think that there must be an underlying current of angst or uneaseĀ under the surface.
Today of course, the post-Bud Black era – one which hordes of fans had clamored for years – has produced a 5-8 record thus far, inconsistent performances on both sides of the plate, and a team that now sits 6.5 games out of first place.
I always thought the term ārelieved of his dutiesā was an interesting choice of words, by the way. Because as much as frustrated fan bases proclaim their relief when a firing is administered, there has to be a modicum of relief for the manager who received the pink slip, as well.
Will Middlebrooksā 7 errors, and .160 BA over the past 7 games, for example, are no longer Buddyās concern.
Nor are the 19 unearned runs that Andrew Cashner has allowed. Or the 16 HRs thatĀ James Shield and hisĀ 4.24Ā ERA have give up. Or Wil Myersā chronic wrist injuries.
The list goes on and on, but the bottom line is that A.J. Prellerās desire for, in his words;Ā āA voice.., that may be able to jump-start us a little bitā has now made Pat Murphy the face – and focal point – of this teamās chronic āJekyll-and-Hydeā persona.
It made me curious what the data says about changing managers in midseasons past, and if history is any guide, the trends donāt suggest much improvement between now and September.
Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs, for example, discovered the following in his piece āPadres Take First Step Toward Selling, Fire Bud Blackā:(http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/padres-take-first-step-toward-selling-fire-bud-black/):
āBetween 2005 ā 2014.., I identified 22 cases where a team hired a new manager during the year, and the new manager was in place for at least 40 games. At the time of the original managerās departure, those teams had an average winning percentage of .405. Thatās bad ā that would be a 66-win season, over a full year. Over the rest of the seasons, though, those same teams had an average winning percentage of .468. That would be a 76-win season over a full year, so thatās a step forward. More wins under new managers. But, you could probably guess this part. Those teams had an average preseason projected winning percentage of .480. That would be a 78-win season over a full year. The teams underachieved with the original managers, and then after the fact, just like youād expect, they regressed to the mean. Itās a perfect example of bias, where the only teams that fire their managers during the year are teams who are perceived to be underperforming.āĀ
To me, thatās about as accurate an assessment of whatās going on with this teamĀ as any. And it totally synchs up with both TeamRankings’ and FanGraphs’ projections, which forecast a 79-83 record for this 2015 Padres squad.
I also came across a 2010 article by analyst Joe Delgrippo of Bleacher Report calledĀ āDoes Changing MLB Managers Midseason Actually Work?ā (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/440093-mlb-mid-season-manager-changes-do-they-actually-work) and he weighed in with this:
āSince 1987, there have been 81 midseason managerial changes, one of which was in 1996 when Tommy Lasorda retired as Dodger manager after suffering a heart attack. Of those 80 changes due to firings, only 19 teams played better than .500 baseball after the change was made, some just barely. And only five teams made the playoffs following that change: the 1988 Boston Red Sox, the 1989 Toronto Blue Jays, the 2003 Florida Marlins, the 2004 Houston Astros and (the 2009) Rockies.ā
He then concludedĀ his piece by saying:
āBefore a GM wants to make a managerial change, he might want to evaluate the on-field talent first. If you are a good team, coming off a winning year or recent title and were thought to challenge again this season, then changing managers might be a good idea. ā¦But if you are a bad team, and you believe a change in manager will help āspark the team,ā it might be wise to get some better players.ā
Now, I donāt for one second believe that these Padres are a ābad team.ā Theyāre clearly capable of playing competitive, even winning, baseball. What they are, however – and have been since coming back to Earth after that epic 10-5 start – are an erratic, unsteady team.
And given that weāre just aboutĀ two weeks away from the all-important All Star break, the Bud Black Haters and Apologists alike will all be champing at the bit to see whether the Padres front office is in āBuyā or āSellā mode.
If itās the the former, then A.J.ās desire for a voice that could ājump startā this squad will be viewed as the prophetic stamp of a āRock Star GMā And if itās the latter, well, then the Padres can dubiously lay claim to giving new meaning to the term āMurphyās Law.ā
Digital Creative Director/Copywriter at @mmbideas. Wannabe sports journalist, flamed-out athlete, and diehard baseball junkie despite all of its strikes, lockouts, steroid scandals and Scott Boras. Ex-Californian proudly repping the Padres & Chargers deep in the heart of Red Sox & Patriots Nation.