In our previous breakdown, we examined the San Diego Padres’ 2026 pitching payroll outlook, highlighting the roster’s financial structure and forecasting potential offseason moves.

With the season now entering the stretch run, the Padres are 52–44 and currently hold the National League’s third Wild Card spot. While they remain 5.5 games back of the division-leading Dodgers, they’ve kept themselves in playoff position by leaning on strong bullpen work and a patchwork rotation.

As the front office prepares for the trade deadline and eyes 2026, tough financial and personnel decisions loom. San Diego could return the bulk of its current staff, but doing so would push the pitching payroll north of $127 million and be very unrealistic. With mutual options, arbitration spikes, and underperformance from some high-salary arms, it’s unlikely everyone stays.

NOTE: Arrows indicate that player is currently in the minors. Red Cross obviously indicates injured list. Red salary amounts are just estimates for arbitration, player options if exercised, or what new deal could be. Lastly and to be clear, in no way am I advocating for the Padres to bring all arms back for next year.

Dylan Cease: A Likely Departure

Let’s start with the elephant in the rotation. Dylan Cease, 29, was acquired by the Padres in a headline-grabbing March 2024 trade with the White Sox that cost San Diego four players, including top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe. Cease was seen as a short-term frontline solution for a rotation that had just lost Blake Snell and Michael Wacha. Rather than a multi-year extension, Cease avoided arbitration by signing back-to-back one-year contracts — making $8 million in 2024 and $13.75 million in 2025. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.

Through 19 starts in 2025, Cease has struggled with consistency. He owns a 4.66 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, though his 3.90 FIP and 1.8 fWAR suggest he’s been more effective than his ERA indicates. Still, he hasn’t matched the dominance he showed in 2022 when he finished second in AL Cy Young voting. And with the Padres facing mounting payroll constraints heading into 2026, a long-term extension appears very unlikely.

That reality puts pressure on A.J. Preller to act at the trade deadline. If he walks in free agency, San Diego would only receive a compensatory draft pick — and only if they extend him a qualifying offer (projected around $20–21 million). If the team exceeds the luxury tax threshold, the comp pick would drop to after the fourth round, limiting its return.

Dylan Cease’s trade value has taken a hit due to a combination of factors that limit what the Padres can realistically expect in return. He’s a true rental set to hit free agency this winter, and his 4.66 ERA, elevated WHIP, and struggles with runners on base have made him unreliable in high-leverage spots. Compounding the issue is his postseason track record, a 9.82 ERA in three playoff starts, which raises red flags for contenders hoping to bolster their October rotation.

Given these limitations, the Padres would be looking at a modest return, likely one or two mid-tier prospects or a controllable depth piece rather than a premium name. A Cease deal would more closely resemble recent rental trades like Michael Lorenzen to the Phillies or Jordan Montgomery to the Rangers than the blockbuster return A.J. Preller paid to acquire him. What to do, what to do…

Robert Suarez: Opt-Out Candidate?

Robert Suarez is in the midst of an outstanding 2025 campaign, emerging once again as the Padres’ most trusted bullpen weapon. Through 40.2 innings, he’s posted a 1.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 19 saves, while holding opposing hitters to a .203 batting average and maintaining excellent command (just 12 walks all season). His ability to generate ground balls and limit hard contact has helped stabilize the back end of San Diego’s bullpen, especially in tight, late-inning situations.

Suarez signed a five-year, $28 million deal before the 2023 season that included player options for both 2026 and 2027, each worth $8 million. Given how he’s performing in his age-34 season — and the growing market value for experienced late-inning arms — it’s reasonable to believe Suarez could opt out in search of a longer-term deal with more guaranteed money. High-leverage relievers with his arsenal and consistency often attract multi-year offers in the $10–12 million AAV range, even into their mid-30s.

For the Padres, this looming opt-out presents a crossroads. They could attempt to rework Suarez’s deal before the season ends, offering an extension that adds guaranteed years and keeps him in San Diego. Or they could stand pat and hope Suarez exercises his option — in which case they’d retain a top-tier closer at a bargain rate. But banking on that would be risky, especially if Suarez finishes the year strong and hits the market as one of the most desirable bullpen arms available.

His decision will not occur in a vacuum. The Padres’ front office must weigh Suarez’s future against the payroll implications of retaining Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, and Jason Adam — all veteran relievers with 2026 commitments or arbitration eligibility. If Suarez opts out, his performance could make it difficult for San Diego to outbid competing clubs, unless Preller acts early to lock him in.

Michael King: Will the Padres Pick Up the Mutual Option?

Michael King, acquired as a key piece of the Juan Soto trade, signed a one-year, $7.75 million deal with the Padres for 2025, including a $15 million mutual option for 2026 and a $250,000 buyout. The right-hander was expected to anchor the middle of the rotation, but a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder flared up after his first 10 starts. While he hasn’t pitched since, King was highly effective in those outings, posting a 2.59 ERA, 1.4 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR, and a 160 ERA+ across 55.2 innings.

Now the question becomes whether either side will exercise the mutual option for 2026, and mutual options are rarely picked up by both parties. If King returns late in the season and proves he’s healthy, he could decline the option in search of a multi-year deal in the $17–18 million AAV range, especially since he wouldn’t be tied to a qualifying offer. On the flip side, if health concerns persist and he’s unable to make it back in 2025, his leverage in free agency could shrink, possibly limiting him to a one-year “prove-it” deal or a restructured multi-year pact with the Padres at a lower annual rate.

From San Diego’s perspective, retaining King, even at some financial risk, could be crucial if Dylan Cease departs and no high-end free agent replacements materialize. The Padres are thin on upper-rotation depth, and if King proves durable down the stretch or in offseason medicals, he might be the most cost-effective bridge to 2026 stability. Letting King hit the market would really increase negative opinions about the Soto trade to the Yankees.

Wandy Peralta: Staying Put for Now?

Wandy Peralta is under contract through 2027, having already exercised his 2025 player option at $4.25 million. While he brings postseason experience and a history of reliability, his 2025 campaign has been uneven. With a 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a career-low 6.0 K/9 across 42.1 innings, Peralta has struggled in high-leverage situations and failed to miss bats at his usual clip.

Given his declining performance and the $4.45 million owed in each of the next two seasons, the Padres may view him as a candidate to move, either at the trade deadline or in the offseason. Shedding Peralta’s salary could free up funds for younger, more effective bullpen arms like Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, or David Morgan. While not a major contract, his deal adds up quickly in a tight financial landscape, making him an expendable piece in a retooled pitching staff.

Jason Adam: Extension?

Earning his first career All-Star nod, Adam has become one of the most effective relievers in baseball, posting a 1.7 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR with a 1.70 ERA and elite 245 ERA+ across 47.2 innings. He avoided arbitration this past winter at $4.8 million and will be in his final year of arbitration eligibility in 2026.

Given his age (33) and rising price tag (likely $6–7 million next season), the Padres may explore a short-term extension with a club option. Letting him walk would be a mistake unless the team is fully rebuilding. He’s been one of their elite “Four Horsemen” in an elite bullpen this season.

Adrian Morejon: Final Arb Year Decision

Morejon has quietly emerged as a key bullpen weapon, tossing 43.2 innings with a 1.85 ERA, 42 strikeouts, and a 224 ERA+. His stuff has finally translated into sustained success, and he’s eligible for his final year of arbitration in 2026.

Expect his salary to jump from $2 million to the $3.6M–$4.2M range. For a 26-year-old with swing-and-miss upside from the left side, that’s still team-friendly. Unless injury strikes, he’ll be tendered without hesitation.

Yuki Matsui: Underperforming, Trade Candidate?

Yuki Matsui, the 29-year-old left-hander and longtime NPB standout, is now in his second MLB season after signing a five-year, $28 million contract with the Padres before the 2024 campaign. While he showed some promise in his first year, 2025 has been a step backward. Through 35.2 innings, Matsui owns a 4.79 ERA, -0.1 bWAR, and a concerning trend of elevated walks and a rising home run rate.

With three years remaining on his deal — escalating from $5.75 million in 2026 to $7 million in 2028 — the Padres face a decision. While it’s rare for a team to pivot this early in a long-term deal, Matsui’s inconsistency and lack of dominance may force A.J. Preller to consider trade options this winter. If another club is willing to bet on a rebound, possibly with the Padres kicking in some cash, moving Matsui could be a quiet but impactful way to create payroll flexibility and open a bullpen spot for a younger, cheaper arm.

Arbitration-Eligible and Pre-Arb Depth Arms

Several younger arms will also earn raises through arbitration or minimum salary bumps in 2026:

Jeremiah Estrada (1.0 bWAR, 142 ERA+): $780–800K estimate

Randy Vasquez (1.7 bWAR as a starter): $780–800K

Bryan Hoeing, Alek Jacob, David Morgan, Sean Reynolds, Matt Waldron, Stephen Kolek, Ryan Bergert: All projected at $770K–$800K depending on service time and usage

All represent affordable depth, though several (Jacob, Waldron) are battling for 40-man roster survival. David Morgan, in particular, has impressed in his limited big-league action (0.7 bWAR, 196 ERA+ in 21 IP) and looks like a lock to return.

Conclusion: Decisions Loom, Budgets Tighten

As the Padres prepare for 2026 with a likely pitcher payroll ceiling near $100 million, the front office faces pivotal roster decisions. Dylan Cease is almost certain to walk in free agency, and if the team doesn’t move him before the trade deadline, they’ll be left with only a compensatory pick. Michael King, if healthy, becomes the most realistic frontline option to retain, whether by picking up his mutual option or negotiating a multi-year extension.

Robert Suarez could also test the open market if he opts out of his $8 million salary, and if that becomes clear, the Padres may be better off trading him at the deadline rather than losing him for nothing. Similarly, Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui are potential offseason trade candidates due to underperformance relative to salary. With Jason Adam and Adrian Morejon eligible for raises and several arms like Vasquez, Estrada, Kolek, and Bergert in the mix, the Padres may look inward for more affordable production.

While the team must trim inefficiencies and reallocate resources, they’re not without internal options. With smart maneuvering and health on their side, San Diego can rebuild its pitching core for 2026 — one that’s both cost-effective and competitive.

J.J. Rodriguez

J.J. Rodriguez is a passionate sports writer making his debut with East Village Times. Born and raised in Southwest Florida, he is a father of four and an eight-year U.S. Marine Corps veteran who has lived in Southern California since 1996. A devoted fan of the San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Florida Gators, J.J. brings a lifetime of sports enthusiasm to his writing. He’s currently pursuing a degree in elementary education and enjoys life as an empty-nester with his wife of 19 years, Lisa.