Next Step for the Padres: Marcus Stroman Trade?
Credit: AP Photo
The San Diego Padres need starting pitching and Blue Jays’ right-handed pitcher Marcus Stroman would make a solid addition to the team. Can the two sides agree to a deal and what would it take for Toronto to part with Stroman?
The biggest positional weakness for the Padres heading into the 2019 season was filled rather emphatically by the signing of Manny Machado to play third base.
The move represented a significant leap towards contention in 2019. However, the starting rotation also constitutes a clear weakness and remains unattended to about a month out from Opening Day. If Preller and company want to push towards a possible wild card spot this season without sacrificing too much of the future, a trade for Toronto’s Marcus Stroman makes a ton of sense.
Stroman has recently expressed his displeasure with the Blue Jays’ organization over the lack of a long-term contract offer: “Mentally, I’m ready to perform, wherever it may be. I want to play here. I’ve been wanting to play here for a long time. I’ve been waiting to sign a long-term deal. I’ve been offered nothing.”
So while it certainly appears Stroman enjoys Toronto and wants to get a long-term deal done with the organization, the feeling may not be mutual. If Toronto has no interest in locking him up long term, the next logical step would be to find a trade before he hits the open market in 2021. The Blue Jays aren’t set up to contend in a loaded AL East this year or next anyway, so Stroman’s days as a Blue Jay may be numbered. Insert the San Diego Padres.
Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer look to be the only two starters with a sure rotation spot heading into 2019. Robbie Erlin, Jacob Nix, Bryan Mitchell and maybe Matt Strahm are the most likely options to fill out the rest as it stands right now. Dinelson Lamet is still a way out from his return from Tommy John. Chris Paddack may or may not break camp with the big club. Any way you slice it, though, a playoff-caliber starting rotation is not in the cards with this current group.
Why would Stroman be a good fit?
Well, he’s only 27 years old with two years before he hits free agency. He doesn’t have to be a long-term commitment if the club doesn’t view him as such, but hypothetically, he’d spend enough time in San Diego to pitch for a contending team. Whether he pitches well or not, the team will be able to reassess his situation just before he hits the dreaded age of 30 and make a decision from there.
In 2017, he posted a 3.09-ERA, 201-inning season that netted him an eighth-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting. Additionally, for whatever it’s worth, he won MVP honors of the 2017 World Baseball Classic for Team USA, a team that also included current Padres Eric Hosmer and Ian Kinsler. He did struggle in 2018, throwing just 102.1 innings en route to a 5.54 ERA, but that could actually work in the Padres favor. His value on the trade market is lower now than it probably has ever been and he’s proven to be better than what he showed last season, so with San Diego desperate for an established starter without a hefty price tag, Stroman could be the perfect move at the perfect time.
Stroman would also be moving from the notoriously offense-heavy AL East to the much more pitcher-friendly NL West, which would increase the chances of a bounce-back year in 2019. One last thing, something that is a bit unconventional, certainly intangible, and yet very much a factor in today’s game: marketability. He’s got the it-factor that nobody else in the Padres rotation has. That translates to ticket sales, jersey sales, and just a general buzz around the team every fifth day he takes the mound. Don’t believe that holds value? Just look at the ongoing Bryce Harper contract negotiations. Based purely on numbers, Manny Machado was the far superior player last year and has been for most of the last five years. Both are 26 years old. But all indications are that Harper is going to land the bigger contract. Harper is a brand as much as he is a ballplayer, and teams are willing to invest heavily in that because he’ll essentially pay for himself. Stroman obviously isn’t on the same level as Harper in that department, but that stuff matters.
So, what would a potential Stroman-to-San Diego deal look like?
The outfield logjam has been well documented in offseason talks, and much like the starting rotation remains unresolved. Wil Myers, Manny Margot, Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes, and Hunter Renfroe all have legitimate cases to start every day. With only three spots to go around, it would make sense to pull from the outfield surplus as the centerpiece of the deal. Myers is the most established of the group, but his contract is bordering on untradeable and would only ever get done with a significant sweetener added from the Padres’ prized farm system. Margot and Cordero would both have value, but the Padres would be best served to give them more consistent opportunities before moving them in a trade. Reyes was the team’s best hitter for a decent portion of last season and has not yet logged a full season in the majors. He certainly comes with defensive limitations and hasn’t produced in a large sample size, but you have to believe the organization values him highly moving forward.
So that leaves Renfroe. Back-to-back 26-homer seasons, the latter which came with significant improvements in nearly every other offensive category, could be enough to represent the centerpiece of a deal. He’s got raw power that could produce 40-plus homers one day, and while he has to rein it in at times, he has a prototypical right fielder’s cannon. He may be squeezed in San Diego, but it’s hard to not see him being a very valuable player for a long time elsewhere. So, a deal of Renfroe and maybe a second-tier minor-league arm like a Michel Baez or Adrian Morejon might get it done. Someone like Josh Naylor could make sense too if Toronto’s asking price is higher. He’s almost big-league ready with the bat, but defensive liabilities project him much better as a DH in the American League, so that would make sense.
My official proposal? Hunter Renfroe, Michel Baez and Josh Naylor for Marcus Stroman.
I think that gets it done.
The Padres don’t need to make this trade right now. If they want to lay back and let their ridiculously talented minor league arms take the wheel in 2020, the team is still going to be in great shape. It’s certainly a risk to trade prospects before showing signs of contending, but the Hosmer signing last year and the Machado signing this year certainly indicate the team is ready to make a push sooner rather than later. If the Padres acquire Marcus Stroman, that could be as soon as 2019.
Born and raised in San Diego, CA. Currently living in Eugene, OR as a junior at the University of Oregon. Journalism major, Padre fan, music lover. Attended my first Padre game at the Q in 1998 when I was three months old. Follow me on Twitter: @BradyLim619.
If Jays trade Pillar elsewhere then Renfroe becomes attractive, Naylor being Canadian would be of natural interest, but suspect the Jays would have much more interest in lefty Logan Allen, rather than Baez. Two from this group likely gets it done, all 3 and the Jays probably eat some of Stroman’s contract and possibly include another player.
The reason Stroman had a bad year last year is because he was throwing side arm in the off season trying to give batters a different look but then he injured his shoulder before spring training and was never right the whole year. Also Jays management wants multiple pitching prospects for Stroman, the Blue Jays are already strong in position player prospects but what they dont have is very many pitching prospects who are ready to pitch in the majors this year.
This is a joke right. Stroman isn’t going to Sandigo for any less then two of the Padres top pitching prospects. They don’t need outfielders. They need pitching. Try quantril , another pitcher and a lottery ticket. That’s 3.09 in the al east. That’s like 1.75 in the nl west.
Stroman comes off as immature. He’s all upset that Toronto doesn’t want to sign him to a long term deal. After last year he’s lucky to have a job at all, never mind being offered big money. Pass.
Half the Jays fans cant stand but the other half love him.
One of the outfielders straight up for Stroman is the best I would offer them.
Nope. I have interest in Stroman, too, but for two years? You outta yo mign.
There’s a reason pitchers that are 5’8 aren’t particularly common or effective. He did have a good 2017, but then bottomed out in 2018. Why exactly should we be sold he’s returning to his 2017 form? Let alone deal a guy like Morejon for him, who could easily have more success than him in his likely rookie season next year.
“second-tier minor-league arm like a Michel Baez or Adrian Morejon” – Are you nuts? They are both Top 100 prospects. No way for Marcus Stroman.
Yeah, that line kind of opened my eyes up as well.
I think the better trade option is Cobb from BAL. He is controlled for 3 years, pitched better than Stroman last year and is a better option for a mentor than Stroman IMO.
No, that is a huge overpay for a pitcher that is not that good.
Uh, a fan of most of your opinions but man you’re WAY off on this one. I’m not sure I’d trade any ONE of those controllable assets you list straight up for two years of Stroman given his 2018 stats. The logic used to justify your position is straight from the old Padre regime. Hope (for a bounce back) is not a strategy!! Stay the course, Pads, and never over pay!
He’s really only had that one good season? I think trading something like Naylor and a mid tier SP like Lawson is fair?
Brady – you’re getting too excited ! Let’s see how the Padres improve this year with our maturing talent and stud third baseman before we give away the farm. The best deal would be any one that includes Myers. Josh Naylor is blocked as is Ty France, so they are both controllable and tradeable. I’m sure the other teams will want one of our young pitchers, but they’re all so good. I would hate to let a potential ace get away before we find out what they’re made of. And Renfroe is NOT expendable. Machado, Reyes, and Renfroe in the same lineup could really light it up !
I think you could sign Gonzalez for $8 Mill for a year and grab Buchholz for $1.5 Mill for the year to bridge the gap if need be and not loose anybody. Paddack and Nix have looked good so far. But the best idea I have is two or three tandem slots, keeps the kids innings down and lets us look at more, keep the best ones and the others will have ML innings to build their value as trade chips.