The Padres don’t appear they will magically turn into a home run-hitting power team anytime soon. Can that work in October?

Padres fans certainly have high expectations for this team. So much so that the fanbase is rather grumpy, even after taking two out of three from the Dodgers over the weekend.

A few things concern the fanbase. Those are- Mike Shildt’s lineup construction, bullpen usage, and the team’s general lack of “slug.” Slug, meaning the ability to drive in multiple runs with extra-base hits, especially home runs.

The 2025 Padres are bad at hitting home runs. In fact, they are second-to-last in homers in all MLB, with only the lowly Pirates at a worse dinger count.

In this modern baseball world, it’s hard to win championships without some elite power. Consider this- while the Padres rank 29th in home runs, the worst mark among any team in a playoff spot, the second-worst playoff team right now sits at 19th, the Milwaukee Brewers. Whom have 27 more homers than San Diego. San Diego also sits at 25th in slugging percentage.

Given the season is over 130 games old at this point, it’s hard to expect the Padres to magically change overnight into the 1927 Bronx Bombers. For better or for worse, this is who they are.

That being, a team that relies heavily on good pitching, with their elite bullpen, along with solid defense and just enough hitting to get by.

But can that win you a World Series? Is it enough? Let’s dive into the numbers.

There have been three postseason runs with the new format that includes six teams from each league and two Wild Card Series instead of one Wild Card Game.

In those three postseasons, only one team has even made it to the World Series that ranked outside the top six in either home runs or slugging percentage. The 2023 Diamondbacks ranked 22nd in homers and 17th in slugging. And what happened? They got out-slugged by the Rangers in the World Series. Texas ranked fourth and third, respectively, and out-muscled Arizona to win the title.

Quite simply, it’s extremely difficult to make the World Series in this age of baseball without a solid slugging team. The lowest-ranked team in homers to even make the playoffs since 2022 is the 2022 Cleveland Guardians, at 29th. They were ousted in the Division Series by the slugging Yankees (first in homers, fourth in slugging).

Only two teams have made the playoffs, ranking 25th or worse in slugging percentage since 2022. Both of those teams were swept out of the Wild Card Series without much of a fight.

Over the last 10 years, just one team has won the World Series ranking worse than 18th in home runs- the 2015 Royals. However, the Royals did rank 11th in slugging. They were able to play gap-to-gap baseball for extra-base hits instead of traditional home runs. The 2025 Padres aren’t doing either one at a good rate.

Slugging percentage might be even more important than just simply hitting home runs. No team in the last 10 years has won the World Series ranking worse than 13th in slugging (2014 Giants). The Padres are 12 spots below that now.

The last time a team won the World Series ranking worse than 20th in slugging percentage? You have to go back to the 1997 Florida Marlins. The only team in this new format to even make the League Championship Series ranking that low is, drumroll please, the 2022 Padres, at 22nd. That is a bit misleading, since they acquired the slugging Juan Soto with a little less than two months left in the season.

It’s very difficult to even reach the league’s semifinals, much less World Series, with a poor slugging team. Pitching only takes you so far.

It’s safe to say that history is against the Padres here. Championship teams need at least a middle-ground amount of slug and power to complement everything else on their title teams. The Padres have a World Series-caliber pitching staff.

Heck, they have a World Series-caliber lineup if you’re just looking at the names. It’s not like the Padres are scraping by with middling talent at the plate. It’s players like Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and even Luis Arraez having much worse slugging seasons than their career averages.

That part is also maddening because it feels like, at any moment, this team could light up the scoreboard if Tatis at least caught fire. Yet, he has hit just two home runs in his last 37 games.

Could the version of Tatis we saw last October (4 HR, .423 AVG, 1.500 OPS) return just in the nick of time? Of course. Perhaps last night’s homer in Seattle is a sign of good things to come.

If he doesn’t, the Padres have major data working against them winning a World Series, or even making it to the LCS, with their lack of slug and home runs.

Nick Lee

Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.