Breaking down the Padres’ early dominance from the bullpen

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The San Diego Padres’ 15-6 start has been an organization-wide effort, but this unit has emerged as the “MVP.”

The average ERA of an MLB bullpen in 2025 so far is 3.94. Using last year’s average start length of 5.25 innings, that roughly comes out to three and two-thirds innings of bullpen usage per game. So, even more roughly, bullpens typically surrender a little over a run and a half per game.

The San Diego Padres have neutralized that narrative. Their 1.65 bullpen ERA comfortably paces the league, despite the group working the eleventh-most frames among all teams. They also lead the way in WHIP and BAA with stifling numbers of 0.96 and .172, respectively.

When examining the caliber of a bullpen, it’s easy to just look at the closer and one or two high-leverage arms that see the most action. In fact, many managers share a similar view when it comes to decision-making– which is a monumental part of bullpen success– in the sense that their approach is just a 7-8-9 inning progression of a team’s three best bullpen arms.

A major reason why San Diego has found so much bullpen success is because of the creativity that skipper Mike Shildt has utilized. But with more than due credit to the pitching staff, every hurler in the bullpen has improved on their ERA from 2024 so far. With around-the-clock arm angles, high spin rates, blistering velocity, and an array of tricky changeups, Ruben Niebla’s blueprint for the group is second-to-none.

Every pitcher is different. How have each of the relievers found success?

Alek Jacob

Serving as the primary long-relief option, Jacob has tossed the second-most innings among the Padres’ relievers. He throws from his trademark 1° arm angle, which essentially turns his offerings into wiffle ball pitches. His changeup’s average 21.9″ makes it the MLB’s farthest-breaking variant of the pitch, just in front of Devin Williams‘ “Airbender”. The trade-off is the velocity, as his fastballs typically sit around 85 mph. However, the funky delivery and unseen break distances have been enough to force bad swings and induce weak contact. He’s allowed three runs via two homers, which is likely where teams will do damage. Nonetheless, his presence as a front-end pitcher is a premium for the Padres to boast.

Yuki Matsui

Matsui’s absurd swing-and-miss numbers make him mistakeable for (or usable as) a high-leverage arm that can escape a jam. While he struggles to generate ground balls, he’s about as reliant on the strikeout as one can be. His 63.6 Whiff% on pitches outside the zone is similar to the likes of Mason Miller, Emmanuel Clase, and Jhoan Duran. As he settles into the season, it’s reasonable to expect his hard contact numbers to improve, which should allow him to be effective in any situation he’s called on for.

Wandy Peralta

It’s far too early to use the word “resurgence”, but it’s undeniable that Peralta’s Baseball Savant page looks much more attractive than it did in 2024. A two-pitch pitcher, his changeup is the bread-and-butter offering that often dictates his success. Early on, the pitch has been well-improved from last season, especially considering that its Whiff% has more than doubled from 2024. He’s similar to Matsui in the sense that he gets a ton of swing-and-misses, but he also generates a ridiculous amount of ground balls. A whopping 75% of the balls put in play against him are on the ground, good for the fourth-best GB% in the MLB.

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Jeremiah Estrada

Estrada is a strong component of the modern approach to pitching. While he throws hard, sitting around 97-99 mph, what makes his fastball stand out is the high spin rate. The offering averages over 20″ of induced vertical break, making him an effective flyball pitcher. His batted ball breakdown is impressive; 20% of his BBE are ground balls, while another 20% are popups. He allows line drives 20% of the time as well, and rounds it out with a 40% fly ball rate. So, while his exit velocity numbers aren’t necessarily special, many hard-hit balls against him amount to nothing

Adrian Morejon

Possibly the most underappreciated pitcher on the Padres’ staff, Morejon posted a 2.83 ERA in 60 games last season. He pairs a modernized two-seamer with a hard cutter and gyro-slider. He’s able to get lots of ground balls with the sinker/slider mix, and is unusually skilled at racking up called strikeouts. This is a credit to his exceptional tunneling between his sinker and his glove-side breaking pitches. With his arsenal, the left-hander could serve as a closer on numerous teams, but instead, he often sees 7th inning action in San Diego.

Jason Adam

Acquired at last year’s trade deadline, Adam wasn’t talked about as much. He came with MLB All-Star Tanner Scott, but despite seeing more usage, Adam posted a 1.01 ERA, compared to Scott’s 2.73. Adam works station-to-station with a good slider, changeup, and an above-average four-seamer. He also features a good sweeper, which gives him four above-average offerings. Typically, a good reliever has two, maybe three. Adam’s righty-lefty splits are nearly identical, thanks to his impressive arsenal and somewhat unconventional delivery.

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Robert Suarez

San Diego’s closer hasn’t just been “enjoying a nice year”; he’s been the best closer in the MLB. He’s the only reliever in the league to pitch over 12 innings score-free, and he boasts a dominant 0.56 WHIP. The flamethrower has yet to allow a runner to reach third and just one to reach second. We all know Suarez’s No. 1– which ranks as the 11th hardest fastball in the sport– but he’s found his dominance through an uptick in his changeup’s usage. The secondary offering comes in at 89.3 mph and breaks 18.4″ horizontally. Both metrics are well above the league average. It also comes in nearly a foot below the fastballs, which puts it on a completely new plane.

Roundup

So, true to the word, you’ll see just about everything out of San Diego’s bullpen. This works to their advantage as well. From seeing Alek Jacob technically throwing underhand, to seeing the pitcher with the MLB’s highest arm angle in Jeremiah Estrada. Or facing Peralta’s primary changeup, Matsui’s whiff-heavy splitter, then seeing Morejon’s wipeout slider. The bullpen isn’t just a good grouping of talent. It’s a clever construction of different pitchers who all bring value in their own way. Lastly, none of this would be possible without the magician, Ruben Niebla. San Diego’s pitching coach has truly brought the best out of each and every one of these arms. It’s not crazy at all to call him the early-season MVP, as the starting rotation has also been a top-ten unit in the league.

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