After Sasaki whiff, Padres have uphill climb to contention in 2025

Oct 1, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres fans react before game one of the Wildcard round for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The Padres missed out on Roki Sasaki. Now what? They have an uphill battle to compete in a loaded National League.
It was very clear from the beginning of the 2024 offseason that priority number one was luring Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki to San Diego. He would’ve filled a huge need for the Padres as they deal with the absence of Joe Musgrove for the entire 2025 season due to him undergoing Tommy John surgery. The Padres desperately need starting pitching.
Sasaki was supposed to be the silver bullet to turn any offseason grade from failing to at least acceptable.
Roki Sasaki announced on his Instagram he'll be joining the Los Angeles Dodgers 🌟 pic.twitter.com/3siuaqmMKL
— MLB (@MLB) January 17, 2025
The Padres might need to ask the teacher for an extra credit assignment to pass the class.
Not only did the Padres lose out on their No. 1 target, but they lost him to the hated rivals from the north. Not only that, but the Padres are in the middle of an ownership dispute, which casts a cloud over the entire organization. No word on whether that influenced Sasaki’s decision to skip to L.A., but it likely did not help.
Also, the Padres do not seem to be in any hurry to spend more money to improve a roster that has several major needs. San Diego lost much of its depth from last year.
According to FanGraphs, Tirso Ornelas is slated to be the starting left fielder. He has never played in a major league game despite being in the Padres’ organization for almost nine years.
The rotation is also a deep need (hence, why missing Sasaki hurt so much). They have a solid trio atop the list, including Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish. However, with the remaining two slots, they would turn to pitchers like Matt Waldron (4.91 ERA in 2024), Randy Vasquez (4.87 ERA), Jhony Brito (13 career starts), or a host of minor leaguers eager for a spot. That is not playoff-worthy depth in starting pitching.
The team is already above the first tax threshold, with the payroll sitting at $242.6 million. The first threshold is $241 million. If the team really wants to cut costs, they even need to shed more payroll from a team with more holes than an old gym sock.
If they are willing to accept being between the first and second penalty thresholds, they have around $18 million to spend.
That could possibly merit them players like J.D. Martinez or perhaps a reunion with Ha-Seong Kim or Jurickson Profar. Several pitchers, such as Nick Pivetta, Jack Flaherty, and Andrew Heaney, remain available. Tanner Scott was an excellent trade deadline acquisition last summer in San Diego. He remains a free agent as well. Preller is never afraid to make trades. However, his resources have been depleted in the farm system.
On paper, the Padres are falling behind during this offseason. We all know the New World Order that is the tyranny of the Los Angeles Dodgers. They will be overwhelming favorites in the N.L. West and win the World Series outright. The Diamondbacks signed ace Corbin Burnes and traded for first baseman Josh Naylor. The Giants signed prized shortstop Willy Adames and brought in future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander to add to their strong rotation.
You don’t need to squint very hard to see a scenario where the Padres have their division’s fourth-best roster. Yes, they have stars. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Luis Arraez will all produce again. Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth still have an All-Star pedigree. Yet, the underbelly of the Padres is far and away the softest of the top four teams in the division.
Gone are key parts of the Padres’ playoff run last year that were not necessarily stars. Players like Donovan Solano, David Peralta, Kyle Higashioka, and Martin Perez played key roles in the Padres’ late-season success. Players like that are vital to any team’s championship run.
ESPN just released their offseason grades for each team, and the Padres were one of just three “Fs” that were handed out. Even the Rockies, Mariners, and Athletics earned higher grades.
It’s not just the NL West the Padres need to worry about. The three Wild Card spots in the National League are tight contests. Outside of the playoff teams from last season, organizations like the Cubs and Reds look like they have improved. Teams like the Phillies, Braves, Mets, and Brewers don’t appear to be going away either.
The Padres are one of just four teams in all of Major League Baseball who have not yet made an addition that affects their starting lineup or rotation. Their level of inactivity has been frustrating to fans.
They have done virtually nothing this offseason. Their biggest moves have been re-signing Tyler Wade (-0.7 WAR in 2024) and bringing in Martin Maldonado on a minor league deal (-1.3 WAR). Neither of these would play a major role in most clubs.
If all that wasn’t enough, it appears that A.J. Preller is headed to his first-ever arbitration case hearing with a player in his 10-year tenure with the Padres. Michael King and the Padres could not agree on a salary before the deadline.
The main headlines of this offseason consist of ownership turmoil, whiffing on the biggest free agent pitcher of the winter and seeing him become a Dodger, and zero outside free agents signed to a major league contract. What’s even more strange is that Preller has had zero trades. That might be partly due to the Padres now possessing a bottom-five-level farm system. After emptying the tank last season for significant additions, they are short on firepower for trades.
That all being said, it is still just mid-January. Pitchers and catchers report in just under a month. The Padres don’t play their first regular season game for another 68 days. There is still time to improve this team. Plenty of quality free agents remain available.
However, the tone of the organization thus far has not struck a tone of being aggressive. They are not giving off the impression that there is a burning desire to compete for the city’s first World Series championship at any cost. This, despite being one game short of eliminating the eventual World Series winners last season. Once again, the Padres are selling out season tickets for this upcoming season. The fans are starving for a title. As of now, the Padres have not done anything to suggest they are in a position to compete.
The Padres will host FanFest on February 1. It will be hard to summon an excited fanbase without a big addition or two before then.
Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.
And today the Dodgers signed Tanner Scott. It is not fair that the cash rich Dodgers get so many of the available top talents while the rest of the 29 teams in MLB struggle to field a competitive team while not breaking the bank. I think every one of the 29 teams, that are not the Dodgers, should refuse to play the Dodgers and forfeit every game. Actually if every team owner sent a letter informing MLB that they refuse to play the Dodgers this season due to the unfair extremely expensive line up, that MLB has allowed the Dodgers have been allowed to build, that this would send a clear message to MLB that they need to assure there is balance in baseball so that EVERY team has a chance to succeed and potentially win a world series, without buying up all the top talent in baseball. Dodger ownership and management will realize quickly that there is no return on investment if no one will play baseball against your team. One cash rich team should not be allowed to monopolize baseball, or any sport. Just my 2 cents.