Walker Buehler enjoying unpredicted success with the 2026 Padres
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Walker Buehler signed with the Padres on a minor-league deal in February of 2026, unsure what kind of role he would bring to the big league roster.
Now, we are about halfway through the season, asking ourselves where this Padres team would be without Buehler.
What’s different?
Buehler spoke to the San Diego Union-Tribune and said that his “elbow has not been in a good place for the past two years”. The right-hander has mentioned several times in interviews with the media that he is not able to touch a high 90s fastball velocity that he was able to before his 2022 Tommy John surgery with the Dodgers, so he’s had to “reinvent” himself in some ways.
His fastball was once in the higher to upper 90s, but now, in 2026, it’s sitting in the low to mid 90s. Mixing pitches in ways he hasn’t before, and becoming comfortable with not having the most overpowering stuff anymore, is something new to Buehler.
Following his elbow surgery in 2022, Buehler really struggled to find any sort of groove on the mound.
A year ago, he played for the Red Sox and Phillies, where he’d have an ERA of 4.93 and a high WHIP of 1.52. The right-hander also mentioned to the San Diego Union-Tribune that his “elbow has not been in a good place for the past two years”.
In 2025, Buehler’s highest used pitch was his four-seamer, the pitch where lots of his success pre-surgery came. From 2025 to 2026, the four-seam fastball usage has gone from 25% to 20%, with the cutter being his most used pitch right now. The sinker to right-handed bats has been a key part of the former Dodgers’ success in San Diego. Buehler’s been shutting down the righties, allowing them to hit just .228, with a low 1.06 WHIP.
5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 7 strikeouts
Not a quality start, but a great bounce back nonetheless. Season ERA down to 3.96#padres #forthefaithful pic.twitter.com/mpRSOODXhr
— Padres Highlights (@FriarHighlights) June 20, 2026
Following Buehler’s start against the Rangers on June 20, he lowered his season ERA to 3.96. His WHIP stands at 1.32 through his 15 starts, where he’s logged 72 2/3 innings. Across 126 innings in 2025, Buehler’s K/9 rate was at 6.6, while in 2026 it is at 8.1. In 2019 and 2020, Buehler’s K/9 was in the 10s, a place that may not be quite achievable for him anymore. In his last seven starts, he owns a 2.72 ERA with a K/9 of 8.5, certainly trending upwards following a rough first month to his Padres career.
Although his K/9 rate is much lower than it was pre-surgery in 2022, Buehler still finds ways to be an effective pitcher in the big leagues. Rather than having five pitches during his All-Star season in 2019, he now has seven in 2026 to keep hitters off-balance.
Pitching coach Ruben Niebla played a major role in the success Buehler enjoyed this year, tweaking his pitch usage.
In 2026, Buehler has been heavily reliant on his fastball pitches. His cutter is used 24% of the time, four seamer 20% of the time, with the sinker being used 17.5% of pitches. The fastballs can ride in on the hitters, providing Buehler a groundball rate of 47.9% and keeping the ball in the yard, an area in which he’s struggled the past few years. In 2024, his HR/9 was 1.9, in 2025, it was 1.6, but in 2026, it dropped significantly to just 0.6 HR/9.
As a Dodger, a great majority of Buehler’s pitches were his four-seamer, coming out more than 40-50% of the time. As Buehler’s velocity dropped over the years, there is simply no chance that he could be firing his four-seamer that much in today’s game.
How Buehler fits for the Padres
Walker Buehler is one of three starting pitchers from the Opening Day roster who have been healthy and producing at the major league level. Buehler is third in innings pitched on the club, behind Michael King and Randy Vásquez. King is struggling with consistency, while Vásquez hasn’t been as effective after his fast start to the season.
Also, with Opening Day starter Nick Pivetta unavailable for some time, Buehler had to step up in a larger role sooner rather than later. The Padres possess an extremely talented and deep bullpen, giving the coaching staff a short leash on some of their starting pitchers. Buehler is one of them. In Buehler’s third time through the order, opposing batters are slashing .395/.452/.553. The Padres are protecting him against that.
In all four of Buehler’s starts so far in June, he has gone just 87 pitches or fewer. Craig Stammen and his staff try to get him through five or maybe six innings of solid work, then hand it over to the bullpen. Avoiding any tough matchups and going to a fresh arm as Buehler’s pitch count rises has been beneficial for all parties involved. Giving five plus innings of work pretty regularly has been a huge help for this Padres team that has had major question marks at starting pitching.
Walker Buehler has a great bounce-back start that saved the #Padres bullpen after last night
6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 4 strikeouts
Season ERA down to 4.97 pic.twitter.com/fRCgtzirjx— Padres Highlights (@FriarHighlights) April 11, 2026
Low-risk signing paying large
So far, this minor-league deal that A.J. Preller handed out to Walker Buehler for just $1.5 million has paid off in a massive way for San Diego.
Preller struck gold with some cheap bats in free agency with Jurickson Profar in 2024 and Gavin Sheets in 2025. Maybe on the pitching side, he did that Walker Buehler in 2026. When the season started, the hope was that he could be a decent No 4 or 5 starter in the rotation, but he’s been more than that for this team. Walker Buehler has been a great addition to the Padres’ starting rotation in 2026.
Angel grew up a San Diego sports fan, following the Padres, SDSU athletics, San Diego FC, as well as the Chargers. He is currently a third year community college student, and will transfer to SDSU to pursue a career in Journalism.