The Roki Sasaki situation dictates future moves for the Padres

Japan Times

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The Roki Sasaki signing will be finalized in the coming weeks, and with that, the San Diego Padres’ future moves will be clearer. 

There is no doubt that the San Diego Padres need pitching.

A.J. Preller and his baseball minds are neck-deep in the Roki Sasaki free agency. The superstar pitcher from Japan is free to sign in the majors and will do so in the next 30 days.

The Padres are front and center in the sweepstakes, and most feel they have an excellent chance of signing the pitcher. Sasaki is also linked to the Dodgers, so it is anybody’s guess where he will ultimately sign. Sasaki may still be weighing his options. It is a mystery.

Unfortunately, the Padres team is currently handcuffed when it comes to finances. The Dodgers are spending as usual, as Blake Snell was signed by the team a few weeks ago. Los Angeles is also linked to Tanner Scott as they plan on reworking the bullpen. There is no doubt the Padres intend to compete next season, but they will need to be creative to fill out the 40-man roster. They cannot spend on free agents like in seasons past.

The team currently has holes in left field, the DH position, and possibly at catcher, depending on their intentions with Luis Campisano moving forward.

There are also whispers that the team would like to trim around $15-20 million dollars from the existing roster as we head into the 2025 season. They need to fill a few positions while cutting the budget. It’s not an ideal situation, but it’s certainly something that can be done.

Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, and Xander Bogaerts were named as possible trade chips. Cease, and Arraez would draw a decent return, but it is hard to see anyone taking on Xander Bogaerts and the more than $228 million he is owed for the next nine years. That will be a difficult sell.

Saski will be retained for around $5-6 million, which is a huge bargain. To obtain that kind of talent and pay them essentially the league minimum until they hit free agency is a deal.

For the Padres, a signing of Sasaki will likely trigger a few options for the team.

 

If the Padres sign Sasaki

Upon securing Sasaki, a trade of Dylan Cease seems easier to digest.

This would be the easiest scenario for the Padres to save money as Sasaki could fill in for Cease and would do so at a bargain rate. Cease is due to make around $12 million for the 2025 season. The Padres would still need to save more money, but they could trade Robert Suarez, Yuki Matsui, or Wandy Peralta to get under the budget.

Luis Arraez would likely be retained, and the club could explore long-term options with him, possibly at a lower AAV at the beginning of a proposed deal.

The team could also retain Cease and Arraez with Sasaki by completely purging the bullpen of high-priced pitchers. This seems risky, but the Padres are capable of finding diamonds in the rough. Look what they did last season with Jeremiah Estrada.

 

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If Sasaki signs elsewhere

If the Padres lose out on the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes, then they would likely need to keep Dylan Cease.

In keeping Cease under contract, the team would need to cut salary somewhere, and Luis Arraez makes sense. A lot of this depends on how long-term contract negotiations are going with the infielder. Arraez is a valuable asset, but his game is slightly one-dimensional, and the Padres CANNOT pay him top dollar. A.J. Preller and the Padres should not make any long-term obligations unless considered team-friendly. Not at this point.

Losing Saski would be catastrophic for the Padres. Speaking to some in the front office, they are content with their pitch to the Japanese star. They feel they have a great opportunity here, and he will come to San Diego.

Naturally, Saski is exploring all options. He cannot sign in San Diego until after January 15 to earn maximum dollars from the Padres.

In the meantime, we all wait.

For the Padres, a flurry of moves will precede a Sasaki signing. Late January will be interesting in San Diego.

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