An October brush fire left about 40 acres along Montezuma Road scarred. The hillside near Fairmount Avenue is a drab gray and black where the inferno raged.

One of nature’s wonders is how it rebuilds itself from catastrophes. The SDSU community will watch the area’s slow recovery over the years until the fire is only a memory. Like a magic trick, the wreckage will serve as the fuel for the beauty that emerges afterward.

The cycle taking place a short walk from the Aztecs’ practice fields is a fitting analogy to what the university hopes is currently taking place inside its football program. NIL and the transfer portal swept through SDSU like a blaze, taking with it what had made the Aztecs great from 2010 to 2022.

The Red and Black have thrived on scouting and development. That recipe was protected by athletes having to sit out a year if they left The Mesa. In today’s climate, would Donnel Pumphrey, the FBS’ all-time leading rusher, be an Aztec for Life?

The unanswered question hanging over SDSU is whether the program has extinguished the fire. Head coach Sean Lewis will conduct exit meetings with his athletes next week. The outcome of those conversations will determine if Lewis’ offseason task is to supplement the two-deep or rebuild it.

The outcome of Saturday’s contest against Air Force is another critical factor in evaluating whether the fire is raging at SDSU. The Falcons lost seven straight after its season-opening victory over Merrimack. Instead of folding, the cadets rebounded and enter Snapdragon Stadium winners of three straight.

The Aztecs have dropped five in a row. The losses include two close outcomes to Washington State and New Mexico and three non-competitive contests with Boise State, UNLV, and Utah State. The Broncos and Rebels have spots in the College Football Playoff Rankings. Last week’s blowout loss to the Aggies, where Lewis questioned his team’s “competitive maturity,” was concerning.

Saturday is a litmus test for SDSU. Succumb to Air Force’s consistent pressure, and the fire will rage into the offseason. Stopping the losing streak will smother the inferno.

Below are ten storylines to follow.

10. Last Time, this Group will be Together

SDSU’s continuity in the Brady Hoke/Rocky Long Era was remarkable in the internet age. Lewis has the unenviable task of breaking the personal preferences of his predecessors that have grown into traditions over the past 15 years. The annual team banquet is one example.

The Aztecs new head coach canceled the annual event more than a month ago. Families of some of the holdover athletes lamented the decision. While a norm and rite of passage at SDSU, it was a peculiarity of the program.

Lewis experienced it last year. At Monday’s media availability, he explained that while, ultimately, it came down to his prerogative as the program’s leader, the event did not fit in the new world of college football.

Half the players invited to the 2023 banquet did not attend because they were transferring. With the portal opening on December 9, the staff will be busy building its 2025 roster.

Lewis’ decision means that Saturday will be the final time the 2024 Aztecs will be together.

9. Divergent Styles for Once

Despite the Aztecs’ 7-16 record the past two years, they still own the 20th-best mark nationally since 2015. SDSU is 79-46 in that span.

Air Force is right behind them. The Falcons are 23rd in the country with a 75-45 record. Among Group of Five institutions, SDSU and AFA are fifth and sixth, respectively, behind Boise State, Appalachian State, Toledo, and Memphis.

The programs’ rise was due to a playing style that emphasized the run, reducing possessions, and keeping the opposition’s offense on the sideline while much of college football was moving away from that approach. Competing against the Aztecs and Falcons was a novelty, making stopping them more challenging.

Saturday marks the 40th meeting between the schools. All have come as conference foes. As SDSU is poised to leave the Mountain West for the Pac-12 in 2026, they are also departing from the philosophy they shared with Air Force. It will be interesting to watch contrasting styles tomorrow and see which team imposes its preferred style.

8. Maximizing Possessions

SDSU has averaged about 12 drives each game. During its three-game winning streak, Air Force only gave its opponents about eight. The Aztecs, who rank 112th in the FBS, scoring 21.5 points per game, will likely have fewer offensive opportunities on Saturday. The Falcons rank fourth in the FBS in time of possession, while SDSU is 124th.

Unless the teams surrender an inordinate number of big plays, the score should be low. Scoring touchdowns in the red zone will be key. The Aztecs have not fared well in this department.

They are 104th in the nation, scoring only 79% of the time they have the ball in the red zone. Only 14 teams have fewer red zone passing TDs than SDSU’s five, and 23 squads have fewer than their ten red zone rushing scores. Overall, they have scored six points on only 44% of tries inside the 20 this season.

Air Force’s 32 red zone opportunities are two fewer than the Aztecs, but they have six more touchdowns. All but one of their 21 red zone scores have come on the ground. The Falcons rank 45th in the FBS with an 87.5% red zone scoring percentage.

Defensively, both teams surrender points when their opponents drive into the field’s final fifth. SDSU (90.5) is one-tenth of a point better than AFA (90.6). The difference is the Aztecs have allowed more attempts (42-32) and given up a higher percentage of touchdowns (78.6%-65.6%).

7. Playing a Complete Game

The last time the Aztecs played competitively for four quarters was the final game of 2023. In former head coach Brady Hoke’s final contest, SDSU scored in every quarter and outgained Fresno State 415-341 on its way to recapturing the Old Oil Can in a convincing 33-18 victory.

Could history repeat itself in 2024? It will likely be needed for the Aztecs to win.

Neither team has been great at halftime adjustments. Air Force has only scored nine points all year during the first 15 minutes after intermission. They have given up 74 during the third. Amazingly, seven of their opponents’ opening second-half drives have gone for touchdowns. Only three opening drives in the first half have resulted in touchdowns against Air Force.

SDSU’s offense, though, has not started either half particularly well. They have yet to score a touchdown against an FBS opponent in their opening drives. They came close last week against Utah State but failed to punch the ball in from inside the five on the game’s opening possession.

6. Field Position Battle

SDSU associate head coach Zac Barton was named a nominee for the 2024 Broyles Award, annually given out to the top assistant coach in the country. Barton’s duties include being the Aztecs special teams coordinator and tight ends coach.

Under his tutelage, punter Tyler Pastula and field goal kicker Gabriel Plascencia are two of the top specialists in the country. Long snapper Ryan Wintermeyer’s excellence has continued, but his responsibility has grown under Barton. Overall, SDSU’s special teams rank sixth in the nation in ESPN’s special teams efficiency matrix.

Not including defensive or special teams scores, the Aztecs and their opponents have had the same number of drives, 131. SDSU’s average starting position (31.46) is about five yards better than what they have given up (26.67).

SDSU’s defense has not taken advantage when its special teams has pinned offenses back. Of the 78 drives the Aztecs’ opponents started at or inside the 25, 38.5% have ended in scores (24 TDs & 6 FGs). The Red and Black’s offense has only managed scores on 23.3% of its 73 drives (11 TDs & 6 FGs) from a similar starting point.

SDSU’s entire 88-point differential can be accounted for because they have failed to stop its opposition when backed up deep.

Air Force is tied for third nationally with 36 fourth-down attempts. The key to forcing punts against the Falcons is stopping them on third down when they are backed up near the end zone.

5. Stopping the QB Run

Air Force’s season turned against New Mexico on October 12 when Quentin Hayes took over as the team’s starting quarterback. John Busha started the year in the position but only averaged 28.2 rushing yards per game. Hayes has averaged 81.4 yards in his five starts, including a season-high 104 versus the Lobos.

The Aztecs’ defense has been hot or cold against running signal callers. They only allowed Washington State QB John Mateer 42 yards on 21 carries and UNLV’s Hall-Malik Williams 29 yards on 10 attempts. New Mexico’s Devon Dampier (127 yards) and Utah State’s Bryson Barnes (193 yards) had outstanding contests.

Much of the damage done against SDSU’s defense has been on read-options in space. Air Force’s triple option presents a different challenge. It will be interesting to see if the difference benefits SDSU.

4. Trey White is Number Two

Among the top offseason stories will be following which Aztecs hit the portal. Trey White figures to be among the most attractive among the current athletes. Before that drama unfolds, White can move up in the record books.

The Hometown Hero is only half a sack away from tying Brett Faryniarz for second all-time in program history. White is also one sack away from moving into second in Mountain West history for a single season. There’s an outside shot SDSU’s EDGE could match TCU’s Jerry Hughes’ 15 for the top spot.

White will have to be efficient in his opportunities. The Falcons have the second-fewest passing attempts in the nation with 136. Hayes has only attempted 42 this season. Amazingly, Air Force won its last game over Nevada without a single passing yard.

3. Marquez Cooper Swan Song

Now that Marquez Cooper has surpassed 1,000 yards on the season, became the first player in FBS history to reach that mark with three teams, and exceeded 5,000 yards for his career, appreciating his final collegiate game is a storyline to follow. Cooper is truly among the best college running backs ever.

His best skill might be as a pass blocker. The pride he shows in every aspect of his game is an example Lewis hopes to duplicate in his players moving forward.

Paul Hewitt is the only Aztec to top 200 yards against Air Force. He had 259 in 1988. Ronnie Hillman loved playing the Falcons. He had 191 and 172 in back-to-back seasons in 2010 and 2011.

Cooper has a chance on Saturday to surpass the best backs in program history against Air Force. It would not take a massive outing to pass Donnel Pumphrey (131), Marshall Faulk (129), and Rashaad Penny’s (128) top individual games.

The Aztecs have reached the century mark 17 times against AFA. Cooper running for the 18th would be a terrific swan song.

2. Consistency is Key

Consistency has been lacking for the Aztecs all year. SDSU has faced a lot of challenges in establishing proven production and has yet to overcome them. The Falcons have possibly powered through more to end the season on their current winning streak.

Continuity along the offensive line has been the reason offered for SDSU’s continued struggles up front. Air Force’s five different starting offensive line units this year is seventh most in the country. The Aztecs have had three and the same group since September.

Freshman QB Danny O’Neil was thrust into action arguably before he was ready because the program lacked an upperclassmen signal caller. The Falcons’ junior quarterback was not the solution at that position, but they found their answer in a sophomore backup.

The Red and Black have had more roster turnover than most teams in the nation, but the starters Lewis selected to begin the year have primarily remained in place throughout the season. Many of these athletes had previous starting experience. The Falcons lead the nation in breaking in new starters. They have had 42 this season. Troy is second with 26.

Air Force’s philosophy depends on its superior and consistent execution defeating their opposition’s superior talent. The Aztecs can learn from how AFA rebounded this year.

1. Student-Athletes

The pay-for-play culture that NIL has spawned has blurred the line between amateur and professional sports. However, it has not erased it.

The 24 student-athletes the Aztecs will be honoring on Saturday have benefitted from the education their time on The Mesa provided. Below is a list of the degrees and certificates SDSU’s seniors are on schedule to receive.

African Studies: Tupu Alualu, JD Coffey, Bryce Phillips,

Interdisciplinary Studies: Jaylon Armstead

Masters in Business Administration: Nate Bennett, Nick Gardinera, Nick Lopez, Kyle Moretti, Nate Williams

Restorative Justice and Trauma Informed Care Certificate: Marquez Cooper, Michael Harrison

Masters in Education Counseling: Arnold Escano, Marlem Louis, Deshawn McCuin, Tyler Pastula, Ja’Shaun Poke, Jude Wolfe

Political Science: Joshua Goynes

Communication: Keion Mitchell

American Indian Studies: Cody Moon, Myles Murao

Masters in Education: William Nimmo

Biology: Mekhi Shaw

Finance: Ryan Wintermeyer

Paul Garrison

My earliest sport’s memory involve tailgating at the Murph, running down the circular exit ramps, and seeing the Padres, Chargers and Aztecs play. As a second generation Aztec, I am passionate about all things SDSU. Other interests include raising my four children, being a great husband and teaching high school.