Revisiting Preseason Predictions – 2026 Lake Elsinore Storm
Credit - Lake Elsinore Storm, MiLB
This article is part of a four-part series revisiting preseason predictions for the Padres’ minor league affiliates. We continue the series with the Padres’ Single-A affiliate, the Lake Elsinore Storm.
Prior to the season, I made a few predictions/projections for the 2026 Lake Elsinore Storm’s season. With the unpredictable nature of Minor League Baseball, some of these predictions may have aged well, while others… not so much. Let’s revisit the initial predictions and see how accurate these wound up being.
1- Kruz Schoolcraft finishes the season with 70+ innings and a strikeout rate north of 30%.
The Padres’ first-round pick in 2025, Kruz Schoolcraft, entered his first full season as a professional with just 1.2 innings of pro ball under his belt. It was unclear how much the Padres organization would ask out of Schoolcraft. As noted in the initial predictions article, “among the last five pitchers the team selected Top 40 in the Draft, only Robby Snelling (103.2 IP) and Ryan Weathers (96 IP) went over 65 innings in their first full seasons after being drafted”. Schoolcraft’s season saw the left-hander pitch 79.1 innings in the regular season, plus another five innings in the postseason. The left-hander struck out a combined 90 batters between the regular season and postseason. In terms of percentages, Schoolcraft struck out 23.3% of batters between the regular season and postseason against a combined 15% walk rate. While the strikeouts were not quite as projected (which again, was a fairly lofty projection), Schoolcraft’s first professional season saw him make 22 starts and provide consistent innings during the dog days of summer for the Storm. It remains to be seen how aggressive the Padres organization will be with Schoolcraft in terms of his assignment for the 2027 season, but it remains incredibly likely that the left-hander will see some time in the Midwest League in 2027.
Kruz Schoolcraft struck out EIGHT batters in Game 2 of the Cal League Playoffs tonight!!#EmbraceTheStorm?️ pic.twitter.com/oy3lrQMwxB
— Lake Elsinore Storm (@Storm_Baseball) September 11, 2026
2- Kale Fountain stays healthy for the full season and leads the team in home runs.
It’s safe to call a mulligan on this one. Kale Fountain played a healthy Spring Training and turned some heads with a mammoth home run in the annual Spring Breakout exhibition game. After only playing in 34 games with the Storm after recovering from post-draft Tommy John surgery in 2025, Fountain returned to the Storm to open 2026. The former 5th-rounder would be making an on-field change, converting to a full-time right fielder. The transition defensively was one that would make full use of his athleticism, size, and throwing arm. Fountain’s start to the season saw him play in 14 games, picking up 10 hits in 55 at-bats. He launched two home runs and had a four-hit game sprinkled in. However, on April 21, Fountain suffered a separation and subluxation of his non-throwing shoulder on a collision with the outfield wall against Visalia, which wound up ending his season. As of the time of this article’s publication, Fountain has returned to swinging the bat and will likely be fully cleared for a regular Spring Training.
Here’s the Fountain homer.
Diego-vision estimates 485 feet, but I could be wrong.
Regardless, what a swing! And thanks to @TooMuchMortons_ for the video! https://t.co/OiaDDMZDuJ
— Diego Garcia (@StatNerd_Base) March 22, 2026
3- Jorge Quintana puts up a .900+ OPS while leading the team in stolen bases.
Acquired along with Nestor Cortes in a trade with Milwaukee, shortstop Jorge Quintana spent the final month of the 2025 regular season with Lake Elsinore, his first experience at the Single-A level. Quintana posted a 70 wRC+ in 25 games with the Storm and returned to the team for 2026. Expected to be a key cog of the team, Quintana spent the full season with the Storm. On the whole, he slashed .234/.328/.367 with nine home runs and 52 RBI. Quintana’s season was rather up-and-down, as he got off to a slow start. Through the end of June, Quintana hit .224 with a .601 OPS and higher OBP than slugging percentage. He played very well in July, slashing .260/.380/.494 (.874 OPS) with three home runs and 10 stolen bases. August was a complete 180, as he only hit .159 with a .582 OPS. When the season adds up, Quintana had a .695 OPS, nine home runs, 52 RBI, and a career-high 29 stolen bases. His OPS was below the prediction, though the call of him leading the team in stolen bases was a closer one. Quintana’s 29 stolen bases were fourth on the team, and of players who ended the season with the Storm, Quintana ranked second. Conner Westenburg (45 stolen bases in 94 games), Ryan Wideman (43 stolen bases in 65 games), and Jose Verdugo (37 stolen bases in 105 games) were the only players with playing time in Lake Elsinore to steal more bases than Quintana. The 19-year-old now stands at something of a crossroads, as it is not clear where the switch-hitter will open the 2027 season.
Jorge Quintana launched his sixth home run of the season in @Storm_Baseball‘s 12-4 win over Inland Empire on Friday.
The Storm’s shortstop is slugging over .400 since July 1. pic.twitter.com/jySwJYUBdh
— Diego Garcia (@StatNerd_Base) August 15, 2026
4- The Storm win either half and make the California League playoffs
So… do we call it manifestation? The Storm got off to a blistering start this season, going 39-27 in the first half to make the California League playoffs. Despite major shakeups to the roster with promotions aplenty (and a 27-38 record in the second half), the first-half win was more than enough to secure Lake Elsinore a playoff berth. Even though first-half stars like Kerrington Cross, Ryan Wideman, and Winyer Chourio were no longer with the team come playoff time, the team’s full-season regulars stepped up, along with an infusion of talent from 2026 draftees. Jesus A. Castro earned Padres MiLB Pitcher of the Year honors after pitching to a 3.96 FIP in 90.1 innings with the team. Dawson Willis and Qrey Lott came up big for the Storm in the playoffs as former undrafted free agents who performed well with the team all year. Ty Harvey saw two separate injured list stints, but was able to play every game in the postseason, with his three-run home run in the South Division Championship Series.
Castro doesn’t start with a K… BUT IT SHOULD!!! ?
JESUS CASTRO TONIGHT: 6 IP – 5 SO – 2 H – 1 ER pic.twitter.com/n1oaU6quVT
— Lake Elsinore Storm (@Storm_Baseball) September 9, 2026
2026 draftees and signees helped the Storm’s playoff push. Joe Tiroly drove in five runs in the playoffs, while Nu’u Contrades’ solo home run in Game 3 of the California League Championship paved the way for the Storm’s win. And where would we be without mentioning Kruz Schoolcraft, Coleman Borthwick, and Lan-Hong Su. Schoolcraft pitched a gem in Game 2 of the Division Series, which earned the Storm a ticket to the finals while also anchoring the rotation. Coleman Borthwick suited up in the postseason for the Storm, allowing just one run in four total innings. Borthwick, who will likely be the Storm’s No. 1 or 2 starter in 2027, impressed in his first professional games, giving the team a boost in the playoffs. Lan-Hong Su, who pitched to an impressive 29/3 K/BB ratio in his final 17.2 innings of the regular season, turned it up a notch in the playoffs. Su, who joined the team in the second half, threw five innings of scoreless baseball in the postseason while fanning 11 of 22 batters faced.
LAN-HONG SU GETS OUT OF THE BASES LOADED JAM!!!!
THAT’S 8 STRIKEOUTS IN 3 INNINGS!!!! pic.twitter.com/pr1Umrxznu
— Lake Elsinore Storm (@Storm_Baseball) September 17, 2026
The 2026 Storm season was a tale of two halves, a near-endless supply of stolen bases, and chaosball that resulted in a California League Championship. Throughout the journey, players on the roster made strides to take their game to the next level (both literally and figuratively). Diamond Stadium saw playoff baseball in 2026, and the Storm’s quest to become the first back-to-back California League champions since the Modesto Nuts in 2022-23 will pick up in April 2027.
The best out is the final out ?#EmbraceTheStorm?️ pic.twitter.com/VtM0eKc3nZ
— Lake Elsinore Storm (@Storm_Baseball) September 17, 2026
A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.
A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.