Are the Padres Still Playing Too Much Small-Ball? A Lesson in Baseball “Roller Coasters”

It feels like a century ago when the month flipped to September, and the San Diego Padres were in the midst of a brutal three-series stretch, losing seven out of nine games and stumbling out of a playoff spot. After a string of unsuccessful bunt attempts, a myriad of Padres fans were questioning the team’s small-ball tactics. Rightfully so. In the heart of an intense playoff race, there is little room for error, and the Padres made quite a few of them during that particular stretch. Here are some of the very real claims from Padres fans back on September 2:

• “They don’t practice it”
• “It’s very easy to do. This team just can’t do it right ever”
• “The 2026 Padres are the worst bunting baseball team I’ve ever seen”

Yet, they have since won 15 of 18 in September, and there is not a peep to be heard about the very same strategic approach that has now brought them success.

The point of this piece is not to argue about the value of bunting or whether the Padres will be better off because of it, but rather that small samples in baseball are outright idiotic. 

Just to be clear: this is not a claim that fans, managers, or even players are idiotic for reacting to or adjusting to small samples! There can be truth hidden within them and, despite there being 162 games in the MLB season, those few mistakes always seem to come back to haunt everyone’s favorite team in the worst way. However, recency bias is more dangerous in baseball than in any other sport, and, just like the peaks and valleys on a roller coaster, it will make you sick if you fail to keep your eyes on the horizon. 

The Numbers Don’t Lie

For better or worse, stolen bases and bunts have played pivotal roles in the last three seasons for this Padres offense. Former Manager Mike Shildt came in after an extremely underwhelming 2023 season and quickly established this more “old-school” style of play, and rookie Manager Craig Stammen has largely adopted the same approach.

The Padres have ranked top 10 in total bunt attempts this season and have continued that trend in their long stretch of winning here this month. They are ninth in baseball in bunt attempts since September 4 and have been successful (either earning a hit or a successful sacrifice) on seven of their eight. 

Not only are they bunting at a higher rate (albeit one that is thankfully less than their league-leading rate from 2025), but they are relatively successful at it. Teams constructed around speed, such as the Rays, Brewers, and Diamondbacks, naturally lead the way.

You can see teams across the board that are scattered all over the late-season standings. Unsurprisingly, bunting rates and success do not necessarily correlate to winning, but the point is that, when keeping your eyes on the horizon, you will find that the Padres are perfectly capable of bunting and are justified in doing so (at least in terms of execution). 

Although they took a step back in bunting, San Diego has jumped from eighteenth to fifth in stolen bases from 2025 to 2026. They have done that at an even better clip, leading them to be one of the best basestealing teams in all of baseball despite having an older roster overall. It has been an impressive showing from the team this year and has helped keep them afloat offensively, even when the bats went quiet. 

What’s the big deal?

There is a reason there are 162 games in an MLB season. There is too much luck and too many flukes to be confident about anything from one series. It is normal for it to feel like a roller coaster. The 2024 Padres team finished 2nd in wins in franchise history, yet many described that season as a roller coaster as well.

Shildt took exception to a question using this exact verbiage back in May of 2024 after a rough loss: “I want to ride every roller coaster I can get on, winning seven out of nine series. You sign me up for that ride, I’m all on board.” The often snippy manager would certainly agree with every premise presented here, although he may have overvalued his bunting a bit.

The Padres now look to break into the postseason, the one and only time of year everyone actually should overreact. The Padres will justifiably stick with their small-ball tactics, and everyone will justifiably overreact to the results of these on an individual basis.

Whether the game ends in joyous victory or devastating defeat, remember that even the unsuccessful strategies in the moment are not necessarily the wrong ones. Just enjoy the winding, roller-coaster-like ride and try not to get sick!

Jacob Larose

Jacob grew up with Padres season tickets and walls plastered with Khalil Greene memorabilia. He has dedicated all of his young professional career towards becoming baseball’s next AJ Preller, having already worked with minor league and college teams in different roles. He is always scouring the Baseball Savant page to find the next little nugget that might help his hometown Padres (or his fantasy baseball team).