This article is part of a four-part series revisiting preseason predictions for the Padres’ minor league affiliates. We open the series with the Padres’ High-A affiliate, the Fort Wayne TinCaps.

Prior to the season, I made a few predictions/projections for the 2026 Fort Wayne TinCaps’ season. With the unpredictable nature of Minor League Baseball, some of these predictions may have aged well, while others… not so much. Let’s revisit the initial predictions and see how accurate these wound up being. 

Prediction No. 1 – Kavares Tears sets a career-high mark in home runs. 

Kavares Tears launched 13 home runs for the TinCaps in just 69 games, which is a pace of 18.46 at-bats per home run. Eight of his 13 home runs came in his first 48 games of the season, a stretch that saw him post an .815 OPS. His second half performance didn’t show many signs of slowing down, as despite a slightly lower OBP mark in 21 second-half games, he still launched five home runs. Tears was on pace for a 15-20 home run season before sustaining a shoulder injury on a stolen base attempt on July 25 against Lake County at home.

Tears reportedly felt a pop in his shoulder on the play, and was removed from the game, later being sent to Arizona for imaging. Tears’ 13 home runs in 69 games matched his 2025 total at Single-A Lake Elsinore (in a larger sample of 107 games), so while he did not set a new career-high, he has the ability to do so should he have a fully healthy 2027. We wish Kavares a healthy recovery as he works his way back onto the diamond this offseason and into next year. 

Nobody is swinging a hotter bat right now than KT?

It’s the 4th multi-homer game by a ‘Cap this season pic.twitter.com/0N5BVp4K45

— Fort Wayne TinCaps (@TinCaps) July 2, 2026

Prediction No. 2 – Sean Barnett sees more time on the mound compared to at the plate. 

Though there were signs and rumblings that the team was heading in this direction after his 2025 cameos on the mound, 2026 saw Sean Barnett make the full-time shift to pitching. Barnett opened the regular season with Single-A Lake Elsinore, pitching to a 5.94 ERA and 5.70 FIP in 36.1 innings of relief. The Padres opted to promote the 23-year old on August 5 after he pitched to a 2.79 ERA in July over 9.2 innings.

When he arrived in Fort Wayne, Barnett threw in 10 games, pitching 11.2 innings to a 9.53 ERA. That ERA was inflated by a trio of three-run blowup outings (one vs Great Lakes, two vs Dayton). In those 11.2 innings at Fort Wayne, Barnett struck out 31.1% of batters while walking a career-low 14.8% of batters. He showed an improved cutter to complement his four-seam fastball, which was regularly sitting in the high-90s. His stock as a pitcher has definitely risen over the 2026 season. So how many at-bats did Barnett receive at either level? If you guessed zero, you would be correct. 

Sean Barnett’s first full season as a pitcher saw the right-hander take steps forward as he got more reps.

’26 at High-A: 11.1 IP, 31.1% K, 14.8% BB, 5.42 FIP

FB sits 96-99 (T100), interesting secondary mix w/ hard FC at 92-95 pic.twitter.com/t161R6xmGg

— Diego Garcia (@StatNerd_Base) September 17, 2026

Prediction No. 3 – The starting rotation finishes as a top 5 unit in the Midwest League. 

The TinCaps’ starting pitching staff was among the younger units in the Midwest League, and with youth comes both opportunity and inexperience. The rotation was anchored by right-hander Carson Montgomery throughout the season, with Kash Mayfield drawing the Opening Day start. Mayfield has since been traded, and his 3.54 ERA would lead the team’s starting staff if he were still on the roster. Carson Montgomery led the TinCaps in games started at 22, pitching to a 4.65 ERA. Outside of Montgomery and Mayfield, 14 other pitchers made at least one start in 2026, with four other pitchers also making at least 10 starts.

On the whole, when putting every start together in terms of numbers, the TinCaps staff made 130 starts, pitching to a cumulative 5.66 ERA in 491.2 innings of work. Their full team ERA of 5.74 this season ranked them at 11th out of 12 teams in the Midwest League. With a staff set to feature returning arms such as Winyer Chourio and Bryan Balzer in 2027, the TinCaps’ staff is set up well for a stronger performance as a whole, which accounts for new additions to the staff which could include top prospects Kruz Schoolcraft and Jesus A. Castro by midseason.

@TinCaps right-hander Bryan Balzer struck out 10 batters in five innings at Quad Cities.

Balzer’s line – 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 10 K
94 pitches – 53 strikes
13 whiffs

He’s my new No. 4 prospect in the Padres’ system. @EVT_News pic.twitter.com/hDwpuFtg5y

— Diego Garcia (@StatNerd_Base) August 16, 2026

Prediction No. 4 – The TinCaps finish as the best base-stealing team in the Midwest League

The TinCaps as a team had plenty of players with good baserunning skills and some speed, but their performance as a unit was not as predicted. Fort Wayne stole 146 bases this season as a team, which ranked 11th in the Midwest League. The team was also caught stealing 66 times, which was the second most in the league. If we want to look at the overall success rate on stolen bases, the TinCaps had a success rate of 68.9%. This mark is below the ideal 80% success rate, and Fort Wayne was the only team in the Midwest League to finish with a success rate below 70% (the second-lowest success rate was held by the Peoria Chiefs at 76.5%). Even the late-season additions of Ryan Wideman and Ryan Gerety were not enough to push the TinCaps on the bases. Wideman did his part though, as in 44 games he stole 22 bases. Kasen Wells led the team with 26 stolen bases, and Alex McCoy was third on the team with 21 steals before his promotion to Double-A. 

Ryan Wideman causing some chaos to get us on the board first?‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/edXiWXcNYW

— Fort Wayne TinCaps (@TinCaps) July 22, 2026

Prediction No. 5 – Zach Evans & Alex McCoy finish the season with offensive production at least 20% better than league average. 

Two big contributors for the 2025 Lake Elsinore Storm saw their 2026 campaigns go in opposite trajectories. Alex McCoy was aggressively assigned to Fort Wayne after only 53 games in Single-A, and yet, he rose to the challenge. McCoy played in 98 games with the TinCaps, slashing .268/.354/.468 with 15 home runs, 55 RBI, and 21 stolen bases. He walked 42 times and as of the time of his promotion, he was leading the MIdwest League in doubles with 27.

McCoy earned Midwest League Player of the Month honors in April, while earning Player of the Week for the week of July 28 to August 2. He finished his Fort Wayne tenure with a 110 wRC+, which was 10% higher than league average. McCoy posted a 121 wRC+ in 25 games with the San Antonio Missions, but that does not qualify for Midwest League numbers. Nonetheless, it was a breakout campaign for the 24-year old, who was just assigned to the Peoria Javelinas of the Arizona Fall League. 

ALEX MCCOY TO THE MOON ?

Back within one pic.twitter.com/wxoLCio74z

— Fort Wayne TinCaps (@TinCaps) April 25, 2026

As for Zach Evans, the infielder out of Lenoir-Rhyne had a much tougher second season at the professional level. Evans saw a cup of coffee with the TinCaps to close out 2025, where he hit .194 in 27 games. His return to Fort Wayne in 2026 saw him play in 75 games, as he battled through minor injuries that affected his play in the first half. Evans slashed .222/.281/.315 in those 75 games with three home runs and 21 RBI. His .269 BABIP was far below the league average of .300, and only 18 of his 60 hits went for extra bases.

All of this added up to a 55 wRC+. Evans posted a career-high 44.7% pull rate on balls in play, but a 48.8% ground ball rate somewhat negated the ability to capitalize on pulling the ball. This was exacerbated by a miniscule 8.3% pull-air ratio, which ranked him in the 13th percentile of Midwest League hitters. Even so, there were signs of strong plate discipline shown by the 24-year old, who finished with whiff%, zone-contact%, and K% in the 75th percentile or higher among all Midwest League batters. There’s traits of a pro hitter in that profile, and though he was released by the Padres organization in August, his plate discipline and defensive versatility could be the kind to entice another organization to bring in the young infielder into the fold. 

ZACH EVANS FOR THE LEAD?

7-5 Good Guys pic.twitter.com/ng2JA5ErA8

— Fort Wayne TinCaps (@TinCaps) July 26, 2026

The 2026 TinCaps season was riddled with ups and downs, but through the roller coaster and near-weekly Game of the Year candidates, Throughout the journey, players on the roster made strides to take their game to the next level (both literally and figuratively). There is every chance that Parkview Field sees playoff baseball in 2027, and as we learned this season, never count out the Comeback ‘Caps.

Diego Garcia

A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.

A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.