Padres still linked to Jarren Duran, a deal possible with Red Sox?

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The San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox match up in a potential trade of Jarren Duran. But what would that deal look like? 

The Padres are in a difficult spot right now heading into the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline.

San Diego is battling it out for an NL Wild Card spot and is one of seven teams competing for three playoff spots. There are no guarantees of a playoff spot, and that is a disappointment, as the Padres started the season remarkably well and were considered one of the best teams in baseball after the first three weeks.

In the other league, the Boston Red Sox always have ambitions to compete and are currently toiling around the .500 mark in the standings.

Boston is a few games out of the last AL Wild Card spot, and their season is certainly not over.

Both these teams would like to add at the deadline, but the Padres are in a payroll crunch, and the Red Sox have several holes that need to be addressed. They also do not possess the league’s greatest farm system. They will need to be creative.

Rafael Devers was dealt to San Francisco last month in a surprising move by the Sox. The trade irked the Red Sox fan base as they received prospects in return, but also young men who were not star players (yet), such as Devers. Are they trying to compete? How is that the case when you deal a star player in June? Fans are up in arms.

Bob Nightengale is reporting that the Padres and Red Sox are discussing a possible trade for outfielder Jarren Duran. Again, what are the Red Sox doing? What is their plan?

Duran would be an upgrade for the Padres. That is a certainty. But, what would the Red Sox want in return? Would this be another salary dump of a well-known player by the Sox? Or would they prefer to acquire relevant players to push for the playoffs in 2025 and appease the angry fan base?

Either way, the Padres make sense.

San Diego can package a few top-tiered prospects to get a deal done for Duran. However, the payroll issues are a real concern, although ownership will not acknowledge it. San Diego would like to keep their payroll for the remaining season at the same figure. Next season, the team will have several players off the books and should have more freedom to spend. For now, the frugal Padres are back.

It is probably unfair to call the Padres cheap at this point, as their 2025 MLB payroll ranks in the top ten in the league and exceeds $200 million for the season. However, there just isn’t the freedom of seasons past when Peter Seidler was at the helm. The beloved owner did so much to rejuvenate this franchise, and that should never be forgotten.

Returning to this proposed deal, the Padres may be able to package prospects, but it seems the team may want to use this opportunity to shed some payroll. Yuki Matsui is making $5.5 million this season, plus another $19.25 million through the 2028 season. Would the Padres want to rid themselves of his salary, and would Boston covet the lefty?

Wandy Peralta is also another option to purge payroll as he makes $4.25 million this season, and then two player options at $4.45 million for the next two seasons. Both southpaws hold value to the team, but Adrian Morejon is superior from the left side. The team could easily move on from one of them and save money.

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Packaging one of these lefties with a prospect or two would more than cover Duran’s $3.75 million salary for 2025. But would that even entice the Sox?

An interesting concept centers around Dylan Cease. The Padres know that they cannot re-sign Cease this winter. He will command well over $20 million per year for at least five or six seasons. With so much money committed to Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Yu Darvish, Jackson Merrill, and Joe Musgrove, there is no chance to bring back Cease.

The Padres may choose to attempt to package Cease in a deal to the Red Sox for Duran. Trading Cease would be a wave of the white flag for the Padres on the 2025 season, or would it?

Brayan Bello is a 26-year-old pitcher on the Sox. Bello has flashed real potential, but has struggled to throw consistently. Walking batters is a major issue for him, and his control is a work in progress. Could the Padres wrestle Bello and Duran away from the Sox in a deal for Dylan Cease?

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This seems like a strange move for both teams, but it could be viewed as a win-win for each franchise.

Cease is a huge upgrade over Bello and provides the Red Sox fan base a star after losing Duran in the trade. Cease is a free agent after the season, but the Red Sox are a franchise that makes sense for the pitcher long term. He would provide an excellent one-two punch with Garrett Crochet. That is a formidable top-of-the-rotation.

Trading Duran seems like a silly move for the Red Sox, but they have young options in the outfield. Roman Anthony, the team’s No. 1 prospect, is already on the roster. Jhostynxon Garcia and James Tibbs III are close to major league service time. Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida are on the 40-man and capable of playing. The team has outfield depth. Losing Duran would be a blow, but the team has several capable individuals who can step up internally.

Duran and Bello for Cease has merit, but the Padres would likely need to throw in a few players. Maybe the Sox have an interest in Brandon Lockridge or Bryce Johnson to further strengthen their outfield depth. Maybe Eguy Rosario of Luis Campusano does something for the team. The Padres also hold several young prospects who could satisfy the Red Sox’s itch for players.

For the Padres, losing Cease would be difficult now, but the Padres need offense. They also need young controllable players. Duran is not due for free agency until after the 2028 season. Bello is a little more complicated in terms of contract. Last May, the Red Sox gave him a six-year extension, buying out his arbitration years. Bello will make $2.66 million in 2025, $6.2 million in 2026, and $8.6 million in 2027. His contract jumps to $16 million in 2028 and then $19.1 million in 2029. That is roughly $53 million for the next four and a half seasons.

If the Padres are confident in Bello, this is a great deal. If he fizzes out, the end of the deal will be bad. That is a risk, but one that is arguably worth it for the Padres.

A.J. Preller and his staff are a creative group. They think outside the box. A unique deal with Boston revolving around Jarren Duran is possible on several angles. It all comes down to whether the Padres deem his down year as a fluke. And if they are willing to pay the price. This is going to be an interesting few weeks in the history of the San Diego Padres. Literally, anything can happen.

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1 thought on “Padres still linked to Jarren Duran, a deal possible with Red Sox?

  1. Cease in a package for Duran makes sense to me. Darvish, King, Pivetta, and Vasquez can get the job done in the playoffs.

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