Padres starting rotation preview (in Yu Darvish’s absence)
Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
The San Diego Padres set their rotation ahead of the 2025 season this week. That is, while they wait for Yu Darvish to heal up. How does it look?
A starting rotation can make or break a baseball team over the course of 162 games. Already, the Padres are experiencing some attrition, with Yu Darvish starting the season on the injured list with elbow inflammation. With that in mind, let’s break down the initial five-man rotation the Padres will deploy to start the 2025 season.
Michael King
King got Opening Day honors. Partly, that is due to Darvish going down. The Japanese hurler had started three of the past four Opening Days for San Diego. Manager Mike Shildt complemented King, saying he is just as worthy as anyone on the staff. Let’s not forget how truly special King was in 2024, after being basically a reliever for most of his career before 2023. After setting a career high in his last year in New York, at 104 innings. He blew past that number after arriving in San Diego, logging 173 2/3 innings in 2024. That ranked 14th in the National League. He rightfully earned NL Cy Young votes, ranking third with a 139 ERA+ and fifth with 201 strikeouts.
Essentially, King was one of the five or six best starting pitchers in the NL last season. His sinker-changeup-sweeper trio proved lethal. He ranked in the 99th percentile for average exit velocity allowed. The 29-year-old absolutely deserved to be the Opening Day starter and deserves respect as one of the nastiest starting pitchers in the National League. The two questions surrounding King are: Can he do that again? And what’s the future of King in San Diego, with a mutual option looming after this season?
Cease certainly deserved consideration for the Opening Day honors. While King was San Diego’s most dominant starter last year, Cease was extremely reliable and durable. For the fourth straight season, Cease logged at least 32 starts. In fact, since the beginning of 2021, no MLB pitcher has started more games than Cease. In 189 innings, he posted a 3.47 ERA and 118 ERA+. While he wasn’t always dominant (4.94 ERA in June), he did turn in the most dominant outing of the entire season- a no-hitter against the Nationals on July 25.
DYLAN CEASE THROWS THE 324TH NO HITTER IN MLB HISTORY!! pic.twitter.com/VhMmaJjFLf
— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) July 25, 2024
He tossed at least seven innings in seven different starts. Overall, his workload merited finishing fourth place in NL Cy Young voting. His 224 strikeouts last year ranked third in the National League and fifth all-time in Padres franchise history. Only five pitchers in Padres history reached 220 strikeouts. He’s as steady a starting pitcher there is in baseball and it’s a luxury the Padres need to hold onto, especially given the uncertainty surrounding Darvish.
The Padres did not make many splash moves this offseason. Many cited the uncertainty surrounding ownership and the financial situation of the franchise. Pundits were surprised then, when news came down that San Diego had signed the former Red Sox starter to a four-year, $55 million deal. The backloaded contract allowed the Padres to add a veteran starter to the rotation without totally upsetting the current payroll climate for 2025. Since 2022, Pivetta has tossed 468 innings with an average 4.27 ERA and 101 ERA+. Still, the Padres desperately needed to add an average, stable veteran in the middle of the rotation, and the Canadian righty is just that.
Nick Pivetta 5 Ks finishes out ST strong pic.twitter.com/T16H08CJ9l
— Giannis Auntiegotapoodle (@TooMuchMortons_) March 21, 2025
Pivetta is like King where he gets plenty of swing-and-miss. His sweeper was nearly unhittable last year, with an expected batting average sitting at .190. Over the last two seasons, his 11.08 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate ranks fourth in all of baseball. The top of the Padres rotation should rack up plenty of “Ks.”
This is where the Padres had to access some depth. With Darvish down, now, two fairly unproven arms will enter the rotation. The most experienced of the two is Vasquez, who came over with Michael King in the Juan Soto deal two winters ago. He made 20 starts for the Friars last year, to mixed results. In 98 innings, he owned a 4.87 ERA and 84 ERA+. Still, Vasquez only has 135 innings to his name in the big leagues. The jury is still out, and there is plenty of room and time for improvement.
He offers a five-pitch mix. Given the splits against those pitches, he would do well to use his sweeper more in 2025. Batters had an expected batting average of .215 against his sweeper, which was the lowest among any of his pitches. The sweeper is also the pitch he used the least. Maybe that is an avenue where the Dominican righty can be more effective this season, with a possible increased role.
The biggest unknown on the entire pitching staff, maybe the entire team, is the southpaw Kyle Hart. After a brief debut in the big leagues in 2020 and toiling in the minors, Hart tried his luck overseas last year. For the NC Dinos of the KBO in Korea, Hart logged 157 innings with a solid 2.69 ERA. That was one of the best seasons for him as a professional at any level. The Padres saw enough to take a flier on the lefty from Ohio.
Full at-bat between lefty Kyle Hart and Yuli Gurriel.
Hart strikes out Gurriel looking. pic.twitter.com/bIDQVyZgZj
— 97.3 The Fan (@973TheFanSD) February 21, 2025
His numbers in Spring Training this year were not inspiring (9.39 ERA in 7 2/3 innings), but the Padres saw enough to name him as part of the rotation. He did most of his work in Peoria on the backfields, away from the cameras. Fans only got brief glimpses of what he has to offer. One thing in Hart’s favor is being left-handed, something the Padres do not have otherwise among starting pitcher options.
Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.