Could a solution to the Padres’ pitching woes be found on the waiver wire?

On Monday morning, the Los Angeles Dodgers designated left-hander James Paxton for assignment.

All 29 teams can place a waiver claim on him unless they work out a trade. The San Diego Padres could be a team to pull the trigger on a move.

Paxton has had a serviceable season for the Dodgers, posting a 4.43 ERA across 18 starts. In those 89.1 innings, the left-hander has struck out 64 and walked 48. Paxton has long been a pitcher whose biggest concern for an organization has been health. Paxton has shown no signs of injury this season despite worrying peripherals. His 4.97 FIP and 4.85 xERA aren’t particularly promising, but the walks are a major reason for this.

Padre fans will remember seeing Paxton face the Padres on Sunday Night Baseball earlier this season in a game where he walked eight Padres across five innings. Those eight walks account for 16.67% of his season’s free passes. He also pitched well against San Diego in May at Petco, shutting out the Padres for six innings on May 11.

This season, Paxton has walked batters at a career-high 4.8 BB/9 rate while seeing his strikeout rate drop to a career-low 16.4%. Part of this can be attributed to a 20.9% whiff rate, which would rank him third among current Padres starters (higher than Matt Waldron and Randy Vasquez). Paxton has walked less than three batters in 12 of 18 starts this season, and in those games, he has a 3.09 ERA across 61 innings, with a 42/18 K/BB ratio.

Is the command a worry?

Indeed, but the Padres’ starting staff is fourth in BB/9 in July and ranks 14th all season, according to Fangraphs. Furthermore, the Padres have shown an ability to help pitchers better harness their stuff, leading to lower walk rates. In 2023, Scott Barlow entered San Diego with a 5.1 BB/9 across 38.2 innings. In 29.1 innings with San Diego, Barlow walked batters at a 3.7 BB/9 rate, while his strikeout rate dropped from 26.7% to… 26.0%. The Padres and Ruben Niebla were able to help Barlow harness his pitch mix into fewer walks and softer contact following a midseason trade, so it is likely they can do something similar with Paxton.

Would this sort of acquisition be something of a gamble? Yes, but thanks to injuries, the Padres need reinforcements to their pitching staff. Paxton was a popular name for Padres offseason chatter, and bringing him in would likely not cost very much. There are three ways a Paxton acquisition could go down: minor trade, waiver claim, or signing as a free agent should he clear waivers. The timing of the DFA and possibility is important, as the Padres look poised to need a starter on Saturday in Baltimore. Paxton last pitched on Sunday against Boston, so he would be working on a full five days’ rest if he does become a member of the Padres’ organization.

The ball is in the Padres’ court now.

Diego Garcia

A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.

A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.