Xander Bogaerts may bat leadoff for the San Diego Padres in 2026. 

A week into spring training, San Diego Padres manager Craig Stammen has deployed shortstop Xander Bogaerts in the first spot of the batting lineup.

Many questions arose after last year’s lack of lineup optimization with former manager Mike Shildt. Much of the debate centered around where other players may fit in the lineup. To see Bogaerts leading off the lineup has been a bit of a surprise. While the idea of the former MLB All-Star shortstop in the leadoff spot is unexpected, there are benefits to it.

Let’s take a look.

Past Experience 

In his career, Xander Bogaerts started 80 games in the leadoff spot of the lineup.

In approximately half a season’s worth of time, Bogaerts has put up at a .283 clip with a .748 OPS. They are both ranked fourth in his career based on position in the lineup. While those numbers don’t scream off the page, some of his career and recent splits do give some credence to this being a great spot in the lineup to optimize him.

In his career, he’s recorded an .825 OPS with zero outs. In 2025, the OPS was .863 for the year with nobody out. Bogaerts, with the bases empty, owns a career .789 OPS, and that number was .742 in 2025. And finally, in the first inning, the shortstop has put up a .759 OPS. In 2025, Bogaerts recorded a whopping .951 OPS in 45 plate appearances in the premier inning. The historical precedent does show that this may prove to be something that works for him. Especially as he evolves into a new type of player in comparison to the first half of his career.

Evolved Playing Style

Amidst some struggles at the start of his Padres career, Bogaerts has shown that he is changing as a player. In his debut season with the Padres, Bogaerts hit .285 and had a 117 OPS+. His 2023 was worth a 4.2 WAR, but he never seemed to really be praised due to the disappointing nature of the Padres’ season. 

The following year, Bogaerts seemed to be blindsided and was asked to play second base to get former Padre Ha-Seong Kim in at shortstop for better defensive optimization. In the first two months before his shoulder injury in May, Bogaerts recorded a .597 OPS. After he returned, Bogaerts hit at a .762 clip, including 20 games at shortstop after Kim dealt with his own season-ending injury. 

The 2025 season saw Bogaerts come into camp with a renewed focus on getting better at playing shortstop. He remarked to the media that he did a lot of running in the offseason, which showed with his career high of 20 stolen bases. In his Padres tenure, Bogaerts has stolen 52 bags in just three seasons, which is a significantly higher clip than his 74 in a decade with the Boston Red Sox.

 A very big component of Bogaerts’ 2025 season, which shows optimism moving forward, is his increase in bat speed from 70.7 mph in 2024 to 72.2 mph in 2025.

That increased bat speed helped the shortstop increase his doubles count and raise his slugging percentage by ten points. Along with this increase, he also raised his walk rate by almost three percent. These are additions on the margins that will help him regain some of his form. With the former Silver Slugger going from an offensive powerhouse in Boston to a more prototypical defensive shortstop with speed and some pop, he is creating the opportunity to be consistent for a longer time. 

2026 Outlook

For all the evidence that this can work, there is evidence to the contrary as well.

For as much as the discipline metrics are on Bogaerts’ side, he does not have an elite walk rate or get on base at an elite level. As much as he may be a consistently above-average baserunner, he does not possess elite speed. Petco’s park factors may continue to weaken some of the shortstop’s offense, and he does not provide much more than league-average quality.

Maximizing Bogaerts’ skill is not just about him playing to the best of his abilities. Equally important is setting him up for success.

Batting in front of Jackson Merrill will allow Bogaerts to see a significantly higher number of pitches. Batting in the middle of the order last year cast the shortstop in a run-producing role in a time where he looks to be transitioning into more of a table-setting role. With his baserunning and his ability to steal, seeing better pitches to get on base in front of Merrill will have a much better success rate than last year’s duo of Tatis and Luis Arraez. The Padres often found rallies being killed by Arraez’s inability to drive the ball and not allowing Tatis to steal as often. What the Padres may lack in the leadoff spot, switching from Tatis to Bogaerts will be gained in the two spot and the cleanup spot occupied by their two best players. 

New manager Craig Stammen is a great communicator and seems to be the perfect tether between the front office and the clubhouse.

His strength in relationships is something that he will need to rely on in making some of these big changes for the Padres. Making the change to put Xander Bogaerts in the leadoff spot is one that will not just pay dividends for the team in 2026 but could change the entire perspective of the Aruban star’s tenure in San Diego. If the arc of his evolution is to be believed, Xander Bogaerts’ best moments as a Padre may still be ahead of him.

Brian Ferreira

30

East Coast Based

Dominican