Overview

Xander Bogaerts has faced lots of scrutiny since signing his 11-year, $280 million contract in December 2022. In his first two seasons with the Padres, he put up a slightly above league average .747 OPS. Mixed with injuries in his wrist in 2023 and in his shoulder in 2024, many of the Friar Faithful were not very fond of Bogaerts. 

This season was a make-or-break test in the eyes of those who follow the team closely, and through the first 72 games, Bogaerts was failing it. His batting average sat at .227 with an OPS of .617. This was the worst start to a season in Bogaerts’ entire career. 

However, since going 4-for-4 against the Dodgers on June 19, Bogaerts found something at the plate. Bogaerts is hitting .354 with an elite .947 OPS. That sounds more like a $280 million player. 

So why is Bogaerts returning to his All-Star form?

He is Finally Healthy Again

As mentioned previously, Bogaerts’ tenure in San Diego has been hampered by injuries. The wrist injury in 2023 is the biggest culprit in sapping bat speed. In 2023 and 2024, Bogaerts ranked in the 26th and 28th percentile in bat speed. Unless you are his teammate Luis Arraez, that will not play at the big league level. 

Xander Bogaerts tacks on to the @Padres lead with his 7th homer of the season! pic.twitter.com/oUKTzfNWiH

— MLB (@MLB) July 27, 2025

This season, he seems fully recovered from his previous injuries. You don’t see nearly as many tentative swings, and he looks much more comfortable in the box.

Improved Contact

Now that Bogaerts’ health is back, it is showing in the metrics. Bogaerts’ bat speed has climbed to just above league average (54th percentile), creating a positive domino effect on his performance.

His hard-hit rate has jumped the most, rising from 33.2% in 2024 to 38.8% this season. Additionally, the average exit velocity has returned to around his career average, sitting at 89.5 mph. 

With this improved quality of contact, Bogaerts’ line-drive rate has jumped 5%. His current mark of 27.8% is the second-best of his career and 3.6% higher than his career average. 

Now that the contact has improved, more balls that are being put into play are resulting in hits. 

This has been especially evident on fastballs middle-in. This season, he’s hitting .379 against all fastball types in that location, up from .308 last year. The bat speed is back — and it’s here to stay.

Xander Bogaerts GRAND SLAM ?

What a start for the @Padres! pic.twitter.com/vn4nglo3R0

— MLB (@MLB) July 20, 2025

These improved numbers should give Padres fans some sigh of relief. Given his track record, if the Padres can even get 80% of what he was, it deepens the lineup exponentially. 

Increased Plate Discipline

His health could indicate his upswing in numbers, but it could also be a result of a change in approach. 

Just like the metrics have shown, Bogaerts is showing significant plate discipline improvement. He has become much more selective at the plate, and it is showing positive results.

Even though he’s seeing more pitches outside the zone, he’s been more disciplined at the plate. His Out of Zone Swing % has dropped by 4.4% since 2024, with a 21.4% chase rate (88th percentile) and a 10.3% walk rate (71st percentile)

This change in approach and improved discipline has raised his OBP from .307 last season to .341. 

Bogaerts improving his swing decisions will continue to put him in leverage counts and give him a better chance to collect hits and find his way on base. 

Hot Stretch or a Return to Form?

There may be some doubters out there who don’t believe that Bogaerts’ stretch is sustainable, but there is much more evidence to support that this success can be expected for the rest of the season. 

Both his expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging (xSLG) are strong and suggest he has been experiencing some level of bad luck. 

Xander Bogaerts in his last 25 games:

? .382 BA

? 1.023 OPS

? .461 OBP

? 3 homers

? 7 doubles pic.twitter.com/qhlWt0TtLl

— Sammy Levitt (@SammyLev) July 21, 2025

Final Thoughts

Bogaerts’ bounce-back season has been fueled by health, a return to making hard contact, and a smarter approach at the plate. He is starting to show why the Padres invested in him for the long term. All signs point to him continuing his newfound success. 

For a team that has dealt with inconsistency throughout the lineup, Bogaerts’s return to form couldn’t come at a better time. His resurgence deepens the batting order, stabilizes the middle infield with elite defense, and brings leadership to a team looking to make a playoff push.

If he maintains this level of production, the early doubts surrounding his contract may finally begin to quiet. With that, Bogaerts may once again be viewed as one of the most complete shortstops (or second basemen) in the game.

Ethan Penrod

Ethan is an aspiring sports analyst that has a passion for all sports. He was a collegiate baseball player and now is finishing up his schooling at San Diego State University. He is a rising senior and a journalism major. Ethan hopes to use his knowledge of sports and display it with his writing.