If the playoffs started today, San Diego FC would earn the No. 1 seed in the west and play the winner of the wildcard round between the eighth and ninth seed. This would benefit SDFC because the opponent has already played a round before facing a well-rested team.

San Diego FC currently leads the pack in the Western Conference by one point. A lead that was reduced following a loss and a draw in the last two matches. The road to the playoffs continues on Saturday, when SDFC will attempt to build its lead in the conference when it takes on San Jose at home.

Everything Left to Play For

If there was ever any question about what’s at stake in the final three matches of the regular season, a quick glance at the conference and Supporters’ Shield standings provides the answer. Head coach Mikey Varas has emphasized that the priority is entering the playoffs in peak health, but securing the top spot in the Western Conference remains a clear target as well.

Dropping points at this stage of the season would surely prove detrimental. Arguably, if SDFC wants the top spot in the conference, they must win the rest of their games. That test starts with San Jose, which is on the brink of a playoff spot.

Struggling San Jose

Currently in 11^th place in the Western Conference, San Jose is a win away from qualifying for the wildcard round. They’ve lost three straight – two at home. The Earthquakes are undoubtedly going through a series of woes when it matters most, and San Diego must take advantage of their poor form.

Defensively, San Jose has been awful. The Earthquakes conceded 10 goals in that span of three straight losses. That is not to say they’re not dangerous. Offensively, San Jose is second in xG (Expected Goals), and winger Christian Arango is tied for second place in the league with Lionel Messi for shots taken. Overall, the Earthquakes are the top team in the league for total shots, something that has not paid dividends to them lately.

So if San Jose is at the top of the league for taking shots and creating goal-scoring opportunities, why do they currently find themselves outside of the playoffs?

Defensively, they have not been good. While the Earthquakes are creating chances up front, they’re also leaving themselves vulnerable in the back. They are amongst the top of the league for shots allowed.

SDFC Must Reinvent Offense to Adapt

This scenario could work in San Diego’s favor. Opponents have started to figure out how to play against SDFC. San Jose may follow the same approach—dropping deep into their defensive third and conceding possession. The Earthquakes will then look to strike on the counter and create chances through quick breakaways.

San Diego’s most significant challenge continues to be breaking down the low block that opponents frequently set up. Much of that responsibility falls on the midfield, where creativity is key.

One potential approach is to circulate possession across the midfield, shifting the ball from sideline to sideline to draw defenders out of position. From there, quick passing combinations could open the door for a direct path to goal. No matter the tactic, SDFC must rely on inventive play to unlock defenses that crowd their own third.

Lineup Shifts and a Record Within Reach

If one thing is certain, SDFC will create goal-scoring opportunities. The question is – will they be able to capitalize on and finish those opportunities? As mentioned in my earlier article, San Diego’s number nine woes persist as Corey Baird and Amahl Pellegrino adjust to and learn the system. Until they start producing regularly, the problem of finishing scoring opportunities will remain.

With Luca Bombino being absent for this match due to a National Team call-up, Ian Pilcher will likely start in the left back position. The opportunity can also be given to Willy Kumado, who is back from injury and played in the last match. Other than that, the lineup Varas uses should remain the same as last week.

Should SDFC win their last regular-season match at home, they’ll have the opportunity to celebrate a historic victory with their fans. San Diego is currently tied with LAFC for the most points (57) earned by an expansion team in MLS history. They’ll hold sole possession of the record with a victory.

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Dmitry Anisimov

Dmitry Anisimov is a San Diego native who played soccer up to the college level when he represented the SDSU Men’s Club Soccer team. Growing up in San Diego, Dmitry is a fan of all the home teams but he specifically couldn’t wait until San Diego got an MLS team. Once that dream became reality, Dmitry married his love for writing and the game of soccer to portray a voice of the San Diego soccer community. There is a deep-rooted love of soccer culture in San Diego and Dmitry hopes to bring it to light through his pre and post-game coverage of all things San Diego FC.