If I were the Padres GM (Add Bumgarner and big trade with Cubs)
Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
The third of four separate articles in which our writers at EVT take a spin at being the General Manager of the San Diego Padres. Dominic Stearn is up next with his goals and offseason additions for the Padres as they head into the 2020 season.
Now that we are officially in the hot stove, this is where championship teams are made. Fans of all sorts will clamor for certain free agent signings or trades, but some don’t make sense logistically. I will be addressing team needs and making moves as if I were A.J. Preller considering the San Diego Padres current roster, farm system, and payroll. First, let’s set some goals to accomplish.
Goals:
Add a starter
The Padres already have a decent core of starting pitchers. Chris Paddack should be the ace, with Dinelson Lamet, Cal Quantrill, and Garrett Richards behind him. After Eric Lauer and Joey Lucchesi didn’t precisely take steps forward in 2019, it may be time to move on. By adding a solid starter, the rotation can be a threat with depth. Keep in mind that MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino are on the way as well.
Trade Wil Myers
We are now entering the back half of Myers’ contract, which is heavily back-loaded. His production on the field comes nowhere close to what he’s being paid, and it is interfering with the Padres’ ability to spend more money. Trading him will allow more financial flexibility for a free-agent addition.
Pickup a left-handed bat
The Padres have lacked steady production from the left side of the plate for a while now. Let’s fix that this offseason.
Add an outfielder
The outfielders were very inconsistent in 2019. We can package some OFs and prospects to upgrade there.
My first move will be to clear Myers. If his contract is erased from the payroll, we will be able to open more conversations with free agents. Trading Myers is a tall task and will require the Padres to eat cash and give up some prospects. Fortunately, we have some excellent low-rank prospects that allow us to keep our higher-end guys while still giving away good players. The main struggle is finding a team that is willing to take Myers. An organization that isn’t in a position to compete now seems like a good option. A team that I saw as a suitor for Myers is the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore had the worst record in the bigs in 2018 and will have the 2nd overall pick in the 2020 draft. They show no signs of improving, so they can be a target for a Myers trade.
After examining the Orioles, I found a significant weak spot at shortstop for the Baltimore Orioles. Richie Martin played 120 games for Baltimore in 2019 and was unproductive. A .208/.260/.322 line with six home runs and 14 walks is not what you want out of a shortstop. Combine his hitting with a .971 FLD%, -8 RDRS, and -7 RTOT in the field, and he is hurting the team. The Orioles don’t have any shortstop prospects that will be arriving soon either, so we can help with that. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the Padres current and future shortstop, so we can trade a shortstop prospect along with Myers.
My offer to Baltimore is Wil Myers, with 30 million dollars, and Padres #14 prospect Gabriel Arias for Orioles #21 prospect SS/2B Cadyn Greiner. Arias had a great 2019 campaign in Lake Elsinore (High-A) and could be MLB ready come 2021. This extra year allows Martin a second year to prove himself in the majors but gives the Orioles a replacement if he is unsuccessful afterward. In return, we have cleared Myers’ contract and received a former 2nd rounder. Greiner has struggled at the plate in the minors, but the change in scenery could help get him back to the form he showed at Oregon State.
Now that we have cleared some money, we can go free-agent shopping. Seeing as though Cole and Strasburg are going to be asking for too much money, we must go after cheaper options. With Odorizzi staying put in Minnesota, there are three pitchers that the San Diego Padres could realistically go after, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. All three of these pitchers had a sub-4 ERA in 2019, so we’d be getting a pitcher that will compete with Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet for the opening day starter nod.
However, when you think about the end goal that we are trying to accomplish, a World Series title, there is a free agent that stands out above the rest. Among these free-agent starters is one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all time: Madison Bumgarner. In 102.1 postseason innings, he has a 2.11 ERA to go along with his career 3.13 ERA. Bumgarner also brings a competitive and robust attitude to the mound, similar to Chris Paddack. It is also worth noting that Mackenzie Gore, our #1 prospect, has grown up idolizing Bumgarner. There would be no better way to welcome Gore to the majors than adding his idol to our roster. My offer to Madison Bumgarner would be a three-year deal, because he is 30, for $60 million. This will be a competitive offer for a pitcher who is on a slight decline, plus Bumgarner can stay in California, where he has pitched his entire career.
Now that we have improved payroll and added a starting pitcher, it is time to bolster the lineup. As I mentioned earlier, I need to add a left-handed bat and an outfielder to this squad. Reports came out earlier this week that the Chicago Cubs were interested in splitting with some of their core players this offseason, so I took a dive into their team. Kyle Schwarber, their left-handed hitting left fielder, is coming off of a very sneaky good year. His line of .250/.339/.531, along with 38 home runs and average defense, could be useful in San Diego next year. It seems like Kris Bryant is the future in left for this team, so they should be willing to part with Schwarber. Willson Contreras, the NL all-star starting catcher, is also seemingly available. Also, it is possible that we could add switch hitter Ian Happ, whose line in 2019 was .264/.333/.564 in a short year.
From Chicago, the San Diego Padres will receive Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, and Ian Happ. In return, we will send them infielder Luis Urias, switch-hitting catcher Francisco Mejia, Padres #25 prospect outfielder Buddy Reed, and #3 prospect RHP Luis Patino. It may come to shock a lot of people that I’d be willing to trade the #30 ranked prospect in the game. However, I think that the Padres will already have their pitching rotation solidified for the next couple of years. Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, and Mackenzie Gore seem like the young three-headed monster the Padres want. After I bring in Bumgarner to go along with the likes of Quantrill, Lauer, Lucchesi, and Richards, I don’t see a need for Patino, who likely won’t be ready until 2021. Also, Patino has some command issues. He walked 34 batters in 87 innings in Lake Elsinore this year. Once he gets to higher levels and starts to face more mature hitters, he might begin to walk more guys. We can use his undeniable potential to get MLB talent to help us win now. Being a GM is not supposed to be easy, and this is a risky move that could take the Padres to the next level. This trade also helps the Cubs because they get young talent that will help with their slight rebuild. Luis Urias could benefit from a change of scenery after an up-and-down rookie campaign, and Francisco Mejia is an excellent replacement for Contreras.
With these transactions, I have 41 guys on the 40 man roster. I need to clear one spot, and we have an abundance of pitchers. Gerardo Reyes is 26 and showed very little consistency in his ability to throw strikes in 2019. We can trade him to a team that needs a lot of bullpen help for cash. The Kansas City Royals had a 5.07 bullpen ERA, and are not currently ready to fully compete. We can send Reyes to KC for cash considerations. Despite the poor numbers in 2019 for Reyes, he has undeniable potential. His 99 MPH combined with his slider from a ¾ angle is a small risk worth taking for KC.
Our payroll has been increased by about 25 million dollars, but the team has gotten significantly better. As we continue to win, more seats will be filled, and more merchandise will be sold. An exciting era of San Diego Padres baseball is about to begin, and these are the moves I would make to field the best team possible.
The 26 man roster will come into place following Spring Training. Here is my roster:
C(2):
Willson Contreras, Austin Hedges
P(13):
Madison Bumgarner, Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Cal Quantrill, Garrett Richards, Eric Lauer, Joey Lucchesi, Matt Strahm, Kirby Yates, Andres Munoz, Jose Castillo, Luis Perdomo, Trey Wingenter
INF(6):
Eric Hosmer, Ian Kinsler, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Ian Happ, Greg Garcia
OF(5):
Hunter Renfroe, Kyle Schwarber, Manuel Margot, Josh Naylor, Nick Martini
Dominic is a graduate of Arizona State University’s Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication, with a bachelor’s degree in Sports Journalism. He also is the producer and co-host of the “Padres EVT Podcast.”
The prospect that needs to be flipped the most is: Trammell.
You know who else had 20%+ strike out rates in the minors? Wil Myers
Good deal, Bad outcome = AJ (nepotism rules!)
#1WayTicket2Kennedy
These wild, improbable, giveaway trade scenarios are fun to read, but what they all have in common is trading away HUGE potential for a quick, short run, a 2-3 year window, at the expense of a much longer window of playoff contention that won’t begin until 2021-2022, when those prospects come into their own.
AJ Preller packed depth into the farm, but it’s sky-high ceiling depth that will have much greater value once the players get major league experience. Trading a top prospect like Patino might be like trading a Gerrit Cole or Steven Strasburg before they ever threw a major league pitch.
Preller may be under the gun for 2020, and has only one year after that in his contract, but he’s still playing the long game. That means bringing up his top prospects in a Padres uniform and giving them a coiuple years to settle in. Otherwise he’d have hired an experienced manager and bench coach.
As much fun as they are, these exercise are not what’s going to happen this off-season. The exodus of several top-30 prospects before AJ Preller sees what he’s got at the major league level is a non-starter. He’s going to stick with his top prospects and be patient, expecting them to lead the team to the Promised Land in just a couple years, not trade them for veterans who will be gone in a couple years, along with the window of contention.
My reasoning for trading Patino was that he walks a ton of guys in lower ranks of minor league ball. He walked way more guys than Cole and Stras did in the minors. I know it would be risky, but the return is worth it IMO.
You did not address one of our biggest need. A centerfielder that gets on base, steals bases and plays great defense. I do not like your outfield of Schwarber, Renfro and Margo. No basestealers, a bunch of strike outs and three .230-.250 hitters. Also, why would you keep Kinsler?
When Margot plays consistent plays consistent baseball, he is all of that. And average is an outdated stat for power hitters like Schwarber and Renfroe.
Margo has not been consistent since his first year. He is what you see now. I realize you sacrifice average for power, but we have a HUGE problem with strikeouts. I do not want to had another 150 K’s to this line-up. If you wanted big power, high strikeot corner outfielders you should have kept Reyes. Makes no sense. Let’s work on balancing this line up with some good on base and speed guys. We have decent power in this team already.
Bumgarner is the pitcher we need, beast. But do we have to give up a draft pick?
Rick, you’re right about the NTC, but if his playing time was to be restricted, on a platoon basis perhaps, he might be open to waiving it. And both he and Myers will be extremely difficult to trade, but at least Hosmer has the good clubhouse rep and a couple of legitimately good years to his credit. A club in a smaller ballpark, with a better offense, might be able to consider adding him. Not saying the options are many, in fact it might be Boston or bust, but more effort should be put into trading Hosmer than anything else this off season.
It fun to read these. It is clear what they need to do but each one goes at it differently. This one seems to be the most plausible of the three but I can challenge some decisions. Mad Bum makes all the sense in the world once you get past where he has made his home prior to this off season. Problem is there will be multiple suitors including some of the top teams. 3yrs might work for the Pads but it will all but eliminate San Diego if they insist on this length. I would think there would be little objection from Peter Seidler to add an option with a buyout to get the deal to 4yrs and give them a better chance. The deal will need to be in the 4 yr 72 to 80 range to have a realistic shot. A back up plan could be trading for Matt Boyd, he would be under control for the same amount of time and Detroit needs ML ready arms to bridge to Mize, Manning and Skubal. He wont be the veteran presence with the young Padres but that could be supplemental with a Drew Pomeranz or Cole Hamels. The money you save from not signing Mad Bum covers Boyd plus a second tier arm. A package like Joey Lucchesi, Cal Quantrill, Austin Allen, and Owen Miller should get some attention. Could even go Austin Hedges in place of Austin Allen to catch the youth movement. Havent thought this out but top of my head would fill needs for Detroit and all are near ML ready and fairly cheap to ride out Zimmermann and Miggy.
On the proposed Myers dump, the Orioles make a ton of sense but Mike Elias is gona want prospects not just one and money. The 30M make Wil as a rebound project palatable but it will take multiple prospects and that’s with getting nothing but a lottery ticket back to help with roster space. Gabriel Arias is a perfect piece. Eric Lauer would be another piece. Jorge Ona makes sense as well. Thats gona seal the Wil deal. Now I want to stay with the Orioles and forget the Kyle Schwarber idea. Luis Patino needs to be a Padre. We can focus on a package to get Trey Mancini instead of Scwarber. Although Mancini is RH hitter his RH/LH splits are about as neutral as they come (.277 LHP and .297 RHP). His home/ away splits also are near identical (home .290 and away .292). Schwarber on the other hand are not. His RH/LH slips are .229 LHP and .255 RHP. Home .283 and Away .218. Mancini comes with an additional year of control and isnt any worse on defense. Mancini is a WRC+ 132 in 2019 vs. Schwarber WRC+ 120. If you do both at the same time and build a package with names that might include anyone not named Gore, Patino, Trammel, Abrams, Edwards that could happen.
Mad Bum or Boyd and Pomeranz
Gore and Patino both Padres by 2021
Trey Mancini while keeping Trammel and Renfroe
Running Urias out in 2020 and X Edwards is the backup plan
A vet catcher like Stephen Vogt and Torrens bridging to Campusano or Hunt.
I definitely considered trading for Matt Boyd. My hesitation for pulling the trigger there was that we didn’t do it at this year’s deadline because the asking price was too high. He also had a 5.51 ERA in the second half, so that is a concern. Pomeranz could be a good pickup, as he has already been here before. Since we have left-handed arms in the pen, I don’t see a need to spend money there. Your point about Mancini makes sense. However, since the Cubs are actively shopping players, it makes sense to go out and get him. Your moves definitely make sense though.
Bumgarner’s best days are far in the past. His ERAs away from SF over the last 2 years are 4.97 and 5.26. In other words, away from one of the best pitcher’s park in the game he has sucked. Signing him for anything at all would be a gamble, but the $60 million you suggest would be an epic blunder.
And since this is a magic wand waving exercise, why trade Myers but keep Hosmer?
Myers’ WAR total over the last 2 years is 2.1, Hosmer’s is -0.5. Myers is simply overpaid. Hosmer is awful, and if money were not a concern would be cut.
Hosmer has a full no-trade clause and would not be as easy to trade as Myers is
Agree completely. Hosmer leaving would be far superior to Wil. Mad Bum, yeah hes no more iffy than Wheeler, Stras, and he would come at a cheaper price tag. Matt Boyd is getable now that his second half shows hes isnt Chris Sale which Detroit was using as a comp for a trade. Pomeranz and/or Hamels could be the vet presence for a shorter term and alot cheaper..
Bumgarner is 30, $60 million for him is reasonable. He’s is not going to be asked to be an ace in SD like he was in SF the past couple of years. Myers is more tradeable than Hosmer.