Is it possible for the San Diego Padres and the Boston Red Sox to work on a trade to send Xander Bogaerts back to the team that drafted him? 

As the 2026 MLB trade deadline looms, now is the time for teams to decide if they will be buyers or sellers.

With two weeks’ worth of games to go, the San Diego Padres’ record going into the deadline will likely determine which approach they take.

The need for offense is well known, but as has been noted all season, a return to form from the Padres’ star players will go a long way in remedying that.

The need for starting pitching is much more dire due to the lack of available talent in the rotation. One constant topic of conversation is the contract of Xander Bogaerts. A seemingly impossible contract to trade, a reunion with his former club in Boston could become a win-win for both teams, regardless of their status as buyers and/or sellers.

The Padres’ shortstop is experiencing another disappointing offensive season with the team, sparking up conversations about how the team can move Bogaerts. Rumors have connected the Padres to the New York Mets since last offseason about a potential swap for Francisco Lindor. The matter of a no-trade clause is an important factor with any potential trade, as Bogaerts would have to approve any deal he is a part of. One place that feels like a place he would gladly accept a trade to is back where he spent most of his career- Boston.

At the All-Star break, the Red Sox have won nine straight games and are just a half-game out of an American League wild card spot. A recent hot streak, combined with a field of contenders that is very weak in the American League, has allowed the Red Sox to climb back into contention. 

One position that has been a massive weakness for the team is at shortstop. Trevor Story, Boston’s oft-injured shortstop, is currently on the 60-day injured list. Marcelo Mayer, more on him later, is also injured, leaving the Red Sox with very little depth in their middle infield. Even when healthy, those two players were not producing for the team at all.

Bogaerts’ .648 OPS on the season would be a big upgrade for Boston, along with his elite defensive play this season. Fenway Park is once again one of the top stadiums rated in park factor offensively. It has been widely documented how much offense suffers in San Diego, and Xander Bogaerts would be a huge candidate for positive regression back in Boston. Many of his hard-hit balls to the pull side that become fly ball outs can revert to doubles and home runs with the Green Monster in Boston. This is an important matter in evaluating player fit, as not everyone plays the same in every park. Bogaerts is familiar with Boston, has personally succeeded there, and is completely familiar with the situation. 

What has improved since his previous tenure in Boston is Xander Bogaerts’ defense. Boston suffered with defensive woes in years past, and their current shortstop, Andruw Monasterio, grades out as a very poor defender. Adding Xander Bogaerts, who ranks in the 96th percentile in outs above average, would upgrade the team’s infield defense at its most important position. Even with a potential return of Trevor Story, both players have experience playing second base and can slide over if needed this year and/or next year.

Although there are some tangible reasons for upgrades, which Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow would surely be prioritizing, adding the Aruban shortstop would have two major off-field implications for the Red Sox. Bringing back a former leader who won multiple World Series championships may win back some goodwill with the Red Sox fanbase.

Red Sox fans have been dealt with many blows watching the team trade former MVP Mookie Betts, letting Bogaerts walk away in free agency, the trade of star Rafael Devers, and eventually firing manager Alex Cora this season. The core of their last championship-winning team has been let go, and many questions have been asked about how the team is operating. Reuniting with a former leader may just allow the fans to buy in a bit more with the team. Bogaerts is also a very respected player in the game, who, by all accounts, is a great clubhouse presence. This type of presence can raise the team’s ceiling with their young core that seems to be missing a leader. 

What’s in it for the Padres?

The difficulty in any potential trades involving Xander Bogaerts is figuring out the financials and what the return package would be.

Given the unique circumstances of this reunion and two very interestingly crafted rosters, there is a creative package that general manager A.J. Preller could target. The Boston Red Sox currently have two young players whom they extended that are providing negative value to them. Starting pitcher Brayan Bello and former top prospect Kristian Campbell were the recipients of extensions with plans to be long-term cornerstones. Today, they are getting paid a combined $115 million in total salary to provide negative value to the team. Brayan Bello is currently sporting a 6.06 ERA with a -1.3 WAR after what was looked at as a breakout 2025 season. Campbell only played in 67 games in 2025 and has not been seen back in the majors since. 

The reason the Padres should target these two players is motivated by money and banking on changes of scenery. Combined, these two players are making around $17 million per AAV. Even if the Padres were to kick in around 25% of Bogaerts’ contract, the Padres would save around $2 million per year and would save long-term money as well.

Bello’s deal ends in 2029 (or 2030 if a club option is picked up) and Campbell’s in 2032, a year before Bogaerts, if no options are picked up. Even if you consider these two players as expensive lottery tickets, long-term money will be saved. In the short term, the shortstop position will be open for someone else to take over, but long-term, this could open a door for Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. to move back to his natural position.

Change of scenery is a factor that cannot be understated in this potential deal.

Another player that the Padres should target is the aforementioned Marcelo Mayer. Recently, it was reported that Boston’s front office is divided on the former top prospect, and they questioned his toughness and desire to play. The Chula Vista talent is another player who may benefit hugely from a new home, especially one he grew up in.

All three players named have struggled to develop in Boston’s system. If you’re the Padres, adding two under-25-year-old talents and a starting pitcher under 30, all with many years of control left, has to be appealing. Mayer and Campbell specifically were top 15 prospects per MLB.com just last year. They have not been able to succeed with the Red Sox, but they are young enough that the Padres can take a crack at developing them.

Similarly, Brayan Bello is still just 27 years old. Pitching in San Diego under pitching coach Ruben Niebla can help Bello develop, as many before him have after a move to the Padres. The ceiling is high on these projects, and this is the type of risk that the Padres need to take for potential long-term success. The ability to get younger and a salary being slightly lower is worth the risk for Preller. 

To entice the Red Sox a bit more, the Padres may consider adding Jason Adam and a pitching prospect like Miguel Mendez.

Jason Adam is another former AL East player who could help bolster the Red Sox bullpen now, and Miguel Mendez is a pitcher that Boston may want to target to develop for their future. Along with these pieces, as mentioned before, the Padres would have to kick in some money to Boston. 25% of the deal would amount to around $45 million spread across from now to the end of the contract after 2033. That would leave San Diego on the hook for around $6 million per year for the rest of Bogaerts’ contract. 

The future economics of baseball are in question with the league’s CBA up and labor negotiations to come. The financial ramifications for the Padres are impacted short-term and long-term, but the possibilities to change the roster construction of this team can change drastically. There is a lane to explore a move of the Padres’ shortstop and open up flexibility. These two teams have often been linked, and it may be time to finally come together on a very creative deal that can benefit both teams.

Brian Ferreira

30

East Coast Based

Dominican