Can the Padres trade for Jarren Duran without parting with De Vries or Salas?

May 17, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) hits a two-run RBI against the Atlanta Braves during the eighth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

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Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres desperately need outfield help. The Boston Red Sox have an expendable player who could prove very valuable in San Diego. Can they make a deal happen without parting with their top two prospects?

In case you haven’t heard, the Padres need a left fielder in the worst way. Padres left fielders rank 27th in fWAR and 29th in wRC+. Essentially, the Padres have one of the worst left fielder groups in baseball.

Reports are that the Padres are engaging in trade talks with the Red Sox for All-Star Jarren Duran.

As The Athletic’s Dennis Lin hinted, A.J. Preller has coveted Duran for some time. As we know, in Preller’s 11 years at the helm, once he sinks his teeth into something, it’s hard to redirect him.

Duran would certainly fix a giant issue for the Friars. Last season, the Corona, CA, was a borderline MVP. He put together a very impressive 8.7-WAR season. He did virtually everything right for Boston, leading all MLB with 48 doubles and 14 triples. Throw in his .285 batting average, .834 OPS, and 131 OPS+, and he earned himself eighth place in AL MVP voting as well as his first All-Star selection.

Duran is also an excellent fielder. He resided in the 95th percentile for Outs Above Average last season, roaming around both center and left field.

There are only two outfielders in all of baseball who have put together more fWAR than Duran since the beginning of the 2024 season- some guys named Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

Duran certainly does not hit for the same amount of power as those two sluggers, but his quality defense paired with on-base skills make him a prime candidate to accumulate WAR. He racks up the doubles and triples and has 47 stolen bases since the start of last year.

Imagine putting him in the same outfield as Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. It wouldn’t be hard to argue the Padres would have the best, most athletic outfield in baseball.

Now, of course, is the catch. What do the Padres need to give up to acquire Duran?

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Given that he is an athletic, all-around outfielder who still has three seasons beyond this one of control at a very reasonable price, he will not come cheaply in regards to prospects. The million-dollar question is, could Preller swing a deal with Boston without parting with either of their top two prospects, Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries?

The stigma around the current status of San Diego’s farm system is, it’s those two blue-chip prospects, and then everyone else below them by a large margin. According to MLB Pipeline, lefty starter Kash Mayfield checks in at No. 3. In other words, he’s the best Padres prospect not named Salas or De Vries, and their top pitching prospect.

While De Vries (No. 3) and Salas (No. 29) both appear on the MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 list, Mayfield is nowhere to be found. Unfortunately, his stock has not been boosted by his statistics pitching for Single-A Lake Elsinore this season. In six starts, he owns a 4.87 ERA.

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It would be unwise to put anything past Preller. He is one of the most creative and innovative general managers, not just in baseball, but in all of sports. Could he pull off a massive trade for Duran that did not involve his two prized youngsters? Of course.

However, it would maybe be one of his best Houdini acts ever if he pulled it off.

Preller essentially gutted the second tier of his farm system last summer to acquire the likes of Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and, earlier in the year, Luis Arraez. At the beginning of this year, MLB.com ranked the Padres’ system 25th in the league.

If the Padres want a young, athletic, controllable, rising All-Star to complement the other two they have in the outfield, it’s going to cost. Boston won’t part with Duran for flyers and lotto tickets. They want something real and tangible in return. Perhaps to even help them win ballgames as soon as next season.

If Preller were to wheel a deal for Duran without saying goodbye to De Vries or Salas, it would need to either come at a huge cost of quantity in second and third-tier prospects, or an established big leaguer in the deal. Could the Padres package Arraez in the deal? That seems like two steps forward, two steps back in regards to improving the lineup. Perhaps it would make more sense to draw from the well of their bullpen, such as Yuki Matsui, Sean Reynolds, or Bryan Hoeing? Even then, it would require a few prospects.

The most realistic scenario in which Duran is donning the brown and gold this summer appears to be one where the Padres say “adios” to either Salas or De Vries. That’s just the nature of doing business. Duran is a proven commodity, plus still just 28 years old.

However, to say it’s impossible is very short-sighted and naive. If there’s a way, Preller will find it. He is, as the kids say these days, “built different” than other general managers.

Here are two trade proposals, one involving one of those top two names, and one that involves a piece of the current big league roster instead.

Trade offer one:

Padres get: OF Jarren Duran, OF Allan Castro (BOS #21)

Red Sox get: SS Leo De Vries (SD #1, MLB #3), RHP Will Varmette (unranked)

Trade offer two:

Padres get: OF Jarren Duran

Red Sox get: LHP Yuki Matsui, LHP Kash Mayfield (SD #3), 1B Romeo Sanabria (SD No. 17)

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