A deep dive into the Padres’ new starter Nick Pivetta

Sep 27, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images

According to reports on Wednesday, the Padres signed veteran starting pitcher Nick Pivetta. He brings much-needed depth and stability to the rotation.
Just a day ago, it looked like one of Matt Waldron or Randy Vasquez were going to get significant innings as the team’s No. 4 starter in the rotation. Certainly, that made fans nervous, given the sheer depth required from a pitching staff to make a run at the World Series.
The Padres lost Martin Perez to free agency and Joe Musgrove to Tommy John surgery. They badly needed another veteran arm.
Nick Pivetta is that arm.
According to multiple reports, the Padres signed Pivetta to a complicated four-year deal.
Nick Pivetta contract details:
2025 – $4M
2026 -$19M
2027 – $14M
2028 – $18MOpt-outs after years 2 and 3.
— Underdog MLB (@Underdog__MLB) February 13, 2025
While he will never be mistaken for Roger Clemens on the mound, he is precisely what the Padres needed in the back end of their rotation.
He will be 32 years old on Valentine’s Day. The book is likely written on what Pivetta is and is not. Since being traded to the Boston Red Sox during the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, he has been nothing if not a reliably average starter.
The Canadian made 131 appearances for Boston over parts of five seasons, with a 4.29 ERA (league average ERA is 4.07). His 103 ERA+ during his time in a Red Sox uniform suggests he has been perfectly average (100 being average).
What he does do well is get swings and misses. And frankly, that’s all anyone wants from their pitchers, right?
His 28.9 strikeout rate in 2024 ranked in the 88th percentile, while his walk rate came in the 80th. Since the start of 2023, among pitchers with at least 200 total innings in that time, Pivetta ranks fourth in all of baseball with an 11.08 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate.
How does he get that high strikeout rate?
The six-foot-five right-hander checks in with a five-pitch mix. His four-seam fastball touches 96 mph. His sweeper did the most damage last year, earning a 35 percent whiff rate. He mixes in a looping curveball that had hitters batting just .167 against it last season. He’ll throw in a cutter and traditional slider from time to time as well. His true put-away pitch is that nasty sweeper.
One bugaboo for the righty has been the long ball. The former Red Sox hurler surrendered homers at a 1.59-per-nine clip over the last two seasons, ranking 100th out of 112 qualified pitchers. However, his ability to miss bats and log strikeouts is tantalizing. The injury bug bit him the last two seasons after a long stretch of good health in Boston.
With over 1,000 MLB innings in eight years under his belt, Pivetta is a seasoned vet without being too long in the tooth just yet. He will slide in nicely in the fourth spot in the Padres’ rotation. For what it’s worth, he has a little postseason experience as well. During Boston’s run to the ALCS in 2021, he started three games. He earned a 2.63 ERA in 13 2/3 innings that postseason, including an outing with seven strikeouts and zero earned runs against the Rays.
According to the metric Stuff+, Pivetta has better pure “stuff” than Darvish or King. It’s just a matter of reining it in. Sounds like a good job for pitching coach Ruben Niebla.
Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish all have a much higher ceiling than Pivetta. However, Pivetta is much more reliable than Waldron or Vasquez at this point.
Acquiring Pivetta lengthens the rotation to where only one of Waldron or Vasquez needs to be in the rotation until inevitable injuries come into play. San Diego used eight different starting pitchers last season. It takes a village. Pivetta is a good piece if you’re needing reliable back-end help instead of someone who is going to act like an ace, which he isn’t.
There are two downsides to the Pivetta signing. One is that he is a right-hander, of which the Padres have plenty. At this point, the Padres do not have any viable options to start games from the left side.
The other is that he rejected Boston’s $21.1 million qualifying offer. This means the Padres are subject to losing a draft pick.
Still, Pivetta raises the floor of the Padres’ pitching staff. While he likely won’t win any Cy Youngs, he offers much-needed depth and stability to what was a drastically top-heavy starting rotation in San Diego. Pitchers and catchers have now reported to camp in Peoria. It should be just a matter of days before Padres fans get to see their new starter donning brown and gold.
Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.