Xander Bogaerts holds a key to the Padres future

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Xander Bogaerts holds one of the keys to the 2026 season for the San Diego Padres. 

In December of 2022, MLB free-agent Xander Bogaerts signed a massive deal with the San Diego Padres.

Shocking the baseball world, the Padres inked the 30-year-old veteran shortstop to an 11-year deal for $280 million. After losing out to Aaron Judge and Trea Turner that winter via free agency, the Padres made an offer to Bogaerts that he simply could not refuse.

Some suggest, Peter Seidler strongly influenced the signing as he desperately wanted to make a splash in the 2023 season. Seidler surely green-lighted the signing and increase in payroll, but the signing of Xander Bogaerts comes down to A.J. Preller. If the general manager did not want Bogaerts, he would not have signed him.

Bogaerts came to San Diego with a career average of .292 and a .814 lifetime OPS as a Red Sox. The numbers were solid.

During his three years with the Padres, Bogaerts owns a .738 OPS and a .272 batting average. That is a monumental decrease in value, and there are eight more seasons left in the deal. Years in which Bogaerts will be in his late 30s. His offensive numbers will get even worse. It is going to happen. With age comes decline in Major League Baseball. There are very few players who get better the longer they play.

The last handful of years of the Xander Bogaerts deal will be painful for San Diego. His $25.4 million salary will be watered down to some degree in the 2030s, but it will still represent value and payment owed to a player who will clearly be a shadow of himself. The deal is a head-scratcher at this point. But there may be hope.

The Padres have no choice but to move forward with Bogaerts at shortstop. He needs to perform, though. He is showing signs of his former self; the Padres just need to tap into those Boston days for a complete season.

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His play and performance are a huge key to a successful 2026 season.

With no Leo DeVries in the minors, Bogaerts will play shortstop moving forward. His glovework is not phenomenal, but it surely is not an issue for the team right now. He is playing defense at a high rate and showing that there is still life in the legs. The hope is that Bogaerts can also adjust with the bat and produce more for San Diego.

Early in the spring new manager Craig Stammen is using Bogaerts in the leadoff role. Perhaps that helps revitalize him?

It may be safe to say that the Padres will go as far as the production of Xander Bogaerts allows them.

The game of baseball is a team sport, and one player doesn’t make a whole squad.

However, Xander Bogaerts needs to start producing the way he is capable. The Padres are hopeful he can age like fine wine as he spends his twilight years in America’s Finest City. If he does, the 2026 season any beyond will be fruitful for the San Diego Padres.

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