Padres vs. Dodgers Series Preview: September 24-26
The San Diego Padres head up the I-5 to Chavez Ravine for the start of the most important road trip of their season.
San Diego has managed to emerge from the doldrums of .500 at the All-Star Break to be a mere three games back of the National League West division lead, with a three-game lead for the top National League Wild Card spot. The Padres will face off against the division-leading Dodgers in a three-game set that has the feeling of playoff baseball.
Lining Up
The Dodgers enter the series with their lineup in near-ideal form. The lone regular missing from the Dodgers’ lineup going into the series is backup catcher Austin Barnes, who has been on the injured list for roughly a week. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will likely send his team to the plate in a lineup such as this:
Shohei Ohtani – DH
Mookie Betts – RF
Freddie Freeman – 1B
Teoscar Hernandez – LF
Max Muncy – 3B
Will Smith – C
Tommy Edman – CF
Gavin Lux – 2B
Miguel Rojas – SS
The top of the Dodgers’ lineup is pretty self-explanatory: Ohtani has posted historical numbers in 2024, and Mookie Betts has been solid since returning from the injured list, putting up an .827 OPS since mid-August. The Dodgers’ lineup is one of the deepest in baseball, and the addition of Tommy Edman at the trade deadline has only added to the complete nature of this lineup. With the Dodgers facing three consecutive right-handed starters from San Diego, it is unlikely there will be too much shuffling for the Dodgers in their lineup. With three consecutive night games, it lessens the possibility of the Dodgers resting catcher Will Smith.
In order to have a successful series, it is in the Padres’ pitching staff’s best interest to hold the top of the lineup at bay. A complete 0-for is unrealistic, but limiting the Dodgers on the basepaths will be a key component for this series. Los Angeles has power up and down the lineup, and as Padres fans know all too well, the team cannot afford to give the Dodgers any “extra outs”, per se. With the Dodgers coming into the series off two straight series wins, the Padres will need to stop the momentum.
On The Hill
The starting pitchers for the series have been announced by both teams, and the matchups shape up as follows:
- September 24 – Michael King (SD) vs Landon Knack (LAD)
- September 25 – Dylan Cease (SD) vs Jack Flaherty (LAD)
- September 26 – Joe Musgrove (SD) vs Walker Buehler (LAD)
Starting with Knack, the right-hander has yet to face the Padres in his young career. Coming into the season as the Dodgers’ No. 20 prospect, Knack has delivered solid results for the Dodgers, with a 3.30 ERA (3.73 xERA) and 61 strikeouts in 61 innings. Despite the solid numbers, Knack has been susceptible to the home run ball all season, as the right-hander has allowed 12 home runs in 13 games. He also ranks in the bottom 14th percentile in the league in chase rate, and he tends to live more in the strike zone, which could benefit a Padres team that thrives on in-zone contact.
Jack Flaherty takes the mound for the Dodgers on September 25, and the longtime Cardinal has delivered a bounceback campaign after his Orioles tenure crashed down. Flaherty started the season with the Tigers before being traded to LA at the trade deadline, and while his season as a whole still looks above average, there have been some underlying signs of trouble in his numbers with the Dodgers. For instance, Flaherty’s walk rate has seen an uptick, albeit a slight one, and his home run rate and batting average on balls in play (BABIP) have seen increases as well. Some of this can be attributed to pitching at Dodger Stadium as opposed to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, but he has become more prone to fly balls since putting on the Dodger blue.
The last time Flaherty faced San Diego was August 15, 2023 at Petco as a member of the Orioles, a start in which he allowed seven runs (including a grand slam to Gary Sanchez) in three innings.
Lastly, the Padres will face a familiar opponent on September 26, facing Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler in the series finale. Buehler has been incredible against the Padres throughout his career, posting a 6-1 record, 1.80 ERA, and 78 strikeouts against San Diego. However, he has only faced the Padres once since the end of the 2021 season, with that outing coming on May 12 of this season. Buehler allowed three runs in 3.1 innings, surrendering home runs to Jake Cronenworth and Fernando Tatis Jr. Buehler’s fastball has not been the same pitch it was when he was striking out Padres hitters en masse, as his velocity is down from his peak.
Notables:
- The Padres are 7-3 against the Dodgers this season, scoring 5.3 runs per game and allowing 4.3 runs per game.
- The Dodgers have only faced Joe Musgrove and Dylan Cease once each this season, and both are entering their starts in the midst of a strong stretch.
- Michael King will be making his fourth appearance against the Dodgers this season, with 20 strikeouts in 15.1 innings.
- The Dodgers’ pitching staff enters the series with only one left-handed arm on their roster (Alex Vesia)
A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.
A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.