Why the San Diego Padres Succeeded in 2024.

First, a little perspective:

Who among us believed, one year ago today, that the Padres would finish 93-69, sweep the Braves in the wild-card series, and then come within one game of beating the heavily favored Dodgers in the National League Division Series?

I didn’t, and (be honest!) neither did you.

Let’s not forget that one year ago today, they were heading into the season (notwithstanding the two-game series in South Korea) with great big question marks in left field and center field—two positions which contending teams typically rely upon for stability and big bats. Surely, the Padres didn’t expect Jurickson Profar, who entered last year with a .238/.328/.383 career slash and a 92 OPS+, and Jackson Merrill, a twenty-year-old shortstop who finished 2023 with 46 games at Double-A, to carry their team!

And yet, that’s just what they did: Profar had a career year with 24 home runs, a .280/.380/.459 slash and (for him) a whopping 134 OPS+, while Jackson likewise smashed 24 dingers (including more than a few late-inning, game-winning shots) and dazzled with his glove while finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year vote.

Meanwhile, several other intangibles also worked in their favor:

• Michael King blossomed into the frontline starting pitcher that the Padres were hoping for;
• After a slow start, Kyle Higashioka became one of the most powerful hitting catchers from the month of June onwards;
• Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, and others filled out a very solid bullpen.
• Mike Shildt wound up being a terrific manager who won his players’ respect in his first year at the helm.

Oh, and let’s not forget the early season trades for ace starter Dylan Cease and infielder/designated hitter Luis Arraez.

Granted, that’s not to say that every intangible went the Padres’ way in ’24: for instance, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. both missed significant playing time, and Luis Campusano was a bust behind the plate. But even then, A.J. Preller was able to add valuable veteran pieces in Donovan Solano and David Peralta to plug some of those holes and add needed veteran experience.

I could go on, but suffice it to say, nearly all of the question marks for the 2024 Padres went in their favor and resulted in a very successful season.

What the Padres need to Succeed in 2025

So, what about this year? What are the intangibles that are going to determine how well the Padres do—or don’t do—in 2025?

1. How long will Yu Darvish be out?

Yu Darvish’s diagnosis of elbow inflammation is already a significant setback for the team, as the Padres were counting on him, Cease, King, and new signing Nick Pivetta to throw lots of quality innings.

Yu Darvish, who is set to open the season on the IL with right elbow inflammation, is playing light catch at Petco Park today.

Meanwhile, lefty Omar Cruz, who was optioned two weeks ago is here working with the bullpen and might still be part of the Opening Day roster.

— AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell) March 26, 2025

Hopefully a few weeks of rest will cure what ails Darvish, but the undeniable facts are that (a) he is 38, and (b) he has made just 40 starts and thrown just 218 innings over the last two seasons—though to be fair, he missed lots of time last year for personal reasons that were unrelated to injuries.

However long Darvish is out, the Padres will have to rely upon not just one but two of Randy Vasquez, Kyle Hart, and Stephen Kolek (who will start the year at Triple-A El Paso) for at least April and possibly longer. Padre fans should hope that they do well because the farm system is pretty sparse behind them.

2. Will Fernando Tatis Jr and Manny Machado put together career years?

The answer should be an unequivocal “Yes,” but it wasn’t the case for last year as a whole. Machado was not up to his usual self in the early months last year (just .241 BA with five home runs through May) since he was still recovering from shoulder surgery.

Meanwhile, Tatis missed 60 games due to a stress fracture in his right femur.

Thankfully, both appear to be healthy and relaxed and poised for big seasons. If they can deliver by having 30-plus homer seasons coupled with the elite defense that they are capable of playing, this will be a big help in getting their team into the playoffs.

3. Will Xander Bogaerts produce like he used to?

Entering just the third year of his 11-year, $280 million contract, Bogaerts is already being seen by some as the team’s worst free-agent signing ever, especially after he had his worst season since 2014 (his rookie year with the Red Sox).

Xander Bogaerts is 6-for-17 (.353) with a HR against Chris Sale https://t.co/R4OaHTtLJ2 pic.twitter.com/xmlbB9LKvK

— Al Scott (@AlScott1998) March 27, 2025

But it doesn’t have to be that way. Still just 32, Bogaerts is back at his natural position at shortstop and seems healthy. If he can, at bare minimum, repeat his 2023 season (.285/.350/.440, 117 OPS+), that will go a long way towards helping (a) the Padres play deep into October, and (b) help him to regain his reputation as a solid producer.

4. Can Jackson Merrill avoid the dreaded “sophomore slump?”

Not only did Merrill play a solid center field (7.2 URZ), he set a record for a 21-year-old or younger with the most game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the ninth inning or later.

In short, he became a batter that the Padres came to rely upon.

But can he avoid the sophomore slump? Remember, he is still very young, and after a year in the league, opposing pitchers could start to spot his weaknesses. This is apparently what happened with Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who won the NL Rookie of the Year in 2023, then regressed badly in 2024, with his OPS falling 119 points between the two seasons.

Hopefully, the same won’t happen to Merrill, but like Carroll, he is young, and only time will tell.

5. Will the Padres get good production from left field, and designated hitter?

Traditionally, teams count on steady offense from these two positions, especially the DH, who is paid only to hit. The Padres are going to begin this season with Gavin Sheets and Yuli Gurriel in a platoon. This has raised an eyebrow with many fans, as Sheets has a career 90 OPS+, and Gurriel, who turns 41 on July 9, has hit .243/.297/.356 with an 82 OPS+ over the last three years.

Meanwhile, Manager Mike Shildt will be counting on Jason Heyward and Brandon Lockridge in left field to start the season.

If these duos can’t hack it, there are others who are waiting in the wings who hopefully can produce.

Here is the bottom line: The Padres have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, but if they’re going to do it, most of these intangibles need to break their way.

Greg P. Hoadley

Greg has been a Padre fan for over 40 years. He lives in Ankeny, Iowa.