With Padres left fielder Jurickson Profar likely to be out of San Diego’s price range in free agency, the trade market offers an enticing replacement. 

It is no secret that the Padres and the Tampa Bay Rays have linked up on a multitude of trades, from the Jason Adam and Blake Snell trades to the Jesse Hahn and Dewon Brazelton trades of the past. It is no secret that the Rays avoid eight-figure contracts on their payroll, and usually, they make a habit of trading said players. 

Brandon Lowe is projected to make $10.5 million in 2025, with a club option for the 2026 season.

With the Rays looking to create opportunities for younger players like Jonathan Aranda and Curtis Mead, Lowe stands out as a logical trade candidate. 

The 2024 season saw Lowe post his best season since 2021, with a 124 OPS+, 21 home runs, and a slugging percentage near .500.

Despite missing six weeks of the season with an oblique strain, Lowe was still a cornerstone in the Rays’ lineup and was one of the team’s top run producers.

While he has missed time in each of the last three seasons due to injury, Lowe has still been a solid starter in that span, as in 281 games played, he has 50 home runs, 151 RBI, and a slugging percentage of .440 with 44 doubles to boot.

The left-handed hitter has the sort of power that could benefit from the Petco porch and the gaps at Petco Park, and his offensive game has some room for growth as well.

Lowe ranked in the 18th percentile of squared-up percentage and 10th percentile of whiff rate in 2024, while the Padres as a team had the league’s lowest whiff rate (20.3%). Victor Rodriguez and his staff helped the team’s offense find some form of consistency throughout the regular season, and the team’s offense was a major factor in their second-half surge. This staff could likely help a player like Lowe cut down on the whiffs and bring his walk rate back to his 10-12% rates from his best seasons. While Lowe may not be able to recreate the power from his 39-homer 2021 season, hitting 20 home runs with a .970 OPS in clutch situations would fill the Padres’ needs perfectly. 

There is one major question mark with adding Lowe: he hasn’t taken a rep in left field in a game since 2021. His highest amount of outfield innings in a season is 103 from all the way back in 2018. However, while some might be discouraged by that lack of play at the position, the Padres are an organization that knows how to prepare players to play in different positions.

Jake Cronenworth debuted at first base, a position he had never played outside of one minor league game. Ha-Seong Kim played a spring training game in left field back in 2021. Xander Bogaerts has been moved from shortstop to second base to shortstop. Fernando Tatis Jr and Jackson Merrill made successful transitions from shortstop to Silver Slugging outfielders with excellent defense.

If there is a team that can provide a player with the support to make a positional transition, the Padres under A.J. Preller would be that team. There’s a reason Preller consistently drafts endless shortstops, after all. 

When it comes to Lowe’s outfield defense, he graded out as an average to below-average defender, with a -2 fielding run value/-2 outs above average in 2021 between right and left field. Lowe does not have the blistering arm strength that Tatis and Merrill have, but he’s no slouch either. His range is comparable to that of Jurickson Profar, albeit with slightly more speed (45th percentile sprint speed vs 26th percentile sprint speed for Profar).

Is Lowe going to win a Gold Glove in left field? No, but he doesn’t need to worry too much with Jackson Merrill playing to his left. 

The San Diego Padres could look to the trade market for a starting left fielder, and turning to Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe could fill this void.

Diego Garcia

A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.

A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.